Faroe Islands vs Slovakia prediction
Faroe Islands
SlovakiaOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Calm referee near three cards a game; Faroe matches never topped four cards in their last ten.
Why this pick
Calm referee near three cards a game; Faroe matches never topped four cards in their last ten.
Referee averages 2.94 yellows and 0.12 reds per game (2.9 over his last 10). None of Faroe's last 10 games had more than 4 cards, and the expected total is about 3.2 once corrected for past over-prediction. The case against: 4 of Slovakia's last 10 had 5+ cards, so confidence stays low.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
No result bet; slight lean to few cards, given a calm referee and low-card Faroe home games.
- 1Faroes have lost once in ten home games, beating Czechia and Montenegro last autumn.
- 2Slovakia coach promises rotation; forecast is strong wind, rain and a hard artificial pitch.
- 3Our result and goals numbers sit within a few points of the bookmaker prices.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.3)
Corners
12 (we expected 9.6)
Cards
3 (we expected 3.2)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands win | 17% | 15% | +2 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Slovakia win | 56% | 60% | -4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 67% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% | -3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 22% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.40
Expected corners
9.6
Expected cards
3.2
Likeliest scores
0-1 (13%) · 1-1 (13%) · 0-2 (9%)
Late team news (5)Weiss confirms rotation because of the artificial turf and packed schedule; some players have minor health issues.
Weiss confirms rotation because of the artificial turf and packed schedule; some players have minor health issues.
2026-09-30reliability: highdenniksport.sk
Expected conditions: hard artificial pitch, strong wind, rain, 10-12°C.
2026-09-30reliability: highdenniksport.sk
Matúš Bero left the squad before the first match with a stress fracture.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportnet.sme.sk
Predicted Slovakia XI: Greif; Valjent, Škriniar, Obert, Hancko; Suslov, Lobotka, Duda; Kaprálik, Strelec, Haraslín. Valjent is listed despite the pack's injury flag.
2026-10-02reliability: lowsportnet.sme.sk
Faroe Islands report no notable injuries or suspensions.
2026-10-01reliability: mediumgoal.com
What could go wrongSlovakia's away games run hot on cards; one niggly spell or late time-wasting pushes the total past four.
Slovakia's away games run hot on cards; one niggly spell or late time-wasting pushes the total past four.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed Slovakia XI after rotation
- Valjent's actual fitness status
- Faroe corner data for half of their home games
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Faroe Islands | Slovakia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals for – against | 1.7 – 1.0 | 0.9 – 1.4 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.36 – 1.51 | 1.30 – 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 5.8 – 6.8 | 3.8 – 6.4 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 1.9 | 2.9 – 2.5 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Referee
Mohammed Al-Hakim (Sweden)
This season: 2.94 yellows and 23.6 fouls per game over 50 matches.
Last 10 matches: 2.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Faroe Islands
None reported
Slovakia
M. Valjent (injured: national_team)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Faroe Islands
6.08
Draw
3.78
Slovakia
1.57
Over 2.5 goals
2.21
Under 2.5 goals
1.65
Both score: yes
2.23
Both score: no
1.59
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.6%.
Last 10 games — Faroe Islands
| 09-29 | A | Moldova | 1–1 | D |
| 09-26 | H | Kazakhstan | 1–1 | D |
| 11-14 | A | Croatia | 1–3 | L |
| 10-12 | H | Czechia | 2–1 | W |
| 10-09 | H | Montenegro | 4–0 | W |
| 09-08 | A | Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 09-05 | H | Croatia | 0–1 | L |
| 06-09 | H | Gibraltar | 2–1 | W |
| 03-25 | A | Montenegro | 0–1 | L |
| 03-22 | A | Czechia | 1–2 | L |
Last 10 games — Slovakia
| 09-29 | H | Kazakhstan | 2–1 | W |
| 09-26 | H | Moldova | 2–0 | W |
| 03-26 | H | Kosovo | 3–4 | L |
| 11-17 | A | Germany | 0–6 | L |
| 11-14 | H | Northern Ireland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-13 | H | Luxembourg | 2–0 | W |
| 10-10 | A | Northern Ireland | 0–2 | L |
| 09-07 | A | Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 09-04 | H | Germany | 2–0 | W |
| 03-23 | A | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Slovakia are rightful favourites, but wind, rain, an artificial pitch and Weiss's planned rotation make this a tight, low-scoring game; the only lean is a low card count.
Data (pack). Faroe Islands are 5-4-1 in their last 10 home games (1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded), and their only loss was 0-1 to Croatia. They beat Czechia 2-1 and Montenegro 4-0 at home last autumn. They have drawn 1-1 twice in this Nations League campaign. Their chance quality is thin, though: home xG 1.36 for vs 1.51 against. Slovakia won both home Nations League games (2-0 Moldova, 2-1 Kazakhstan) but are weak away: 4-2-4, 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, including 0-6 in Germany and 0-2 in Northern Ireland. Corners are noisy: Faroe home games average 12.6 (only 5 games with data) and Slovakia away games 10.2, against a Bzzoiro over-9.5 of 43.7%. That's no clear case. Cards: referee Al-Hakim gives 2.94 yellows per game (2.9 over his last 10). In Faroe games the card totals ran 1-4, never above 4 in 10. Slovakia's games run higher (4 of 10 had 5+ cards).
News (web). Weiss confirmed rotation because of the artificial turf and the packed schedule, and said some players have minor knocks. He warned of strong wind, rain and a hard pitch. Bero is out with a stress fracture. One predicted XI still lists Valjent, so his status is unclear.
Market. No-margin prices are 15.4/24.8/59.8. Bad conditions, rotation and Faroe's home record push me slightly toward the draw (17/27/56), but not enough to bet it. Under 2.5 goals: my 60% vs 57.3% implied, short of the 4-point bar. Both sides scoring: 42%, in line with the price.
Pick. Under 4.5 cards. The pack expects about 3.0 cards and the past-results lesson pushes that down. The case rests on the referee's rate and the Faroes' low-card games, but Slovakia's away card counts cut against it, so it's low confidence at 64%.
Uncertainties. Slovakia's rotated XI is unknown, weather can turn the game chaotic, and Faroe corner data covers only half their home games.
Analysed by opus with web research.