Latvia vs Montenegro prediction
Latvia
MontenegroOur pick
Total corners
over 8.5 corners
Latvia concede plenty of corners and both teams' recent games usually reach nine or more.
Why this pick
Latvia concede plenty of corners and both teams' recent games usually reach nine or more.
Latvia concede 6.6 corners per game and their games average 11.0 total. Montenegro win 5.5 per game and their games average 9.8. Over 8.5 was hit in 7/10 Latvia games and 8/10 Montenegro games. The Bzzoiro model gives 56%. Shrunk to about 60% because corner data is missing for several games and Latvia may defend deep.
- Actual
- 7
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean over 8.5 corners: both teams' recent games usually pass nine. Result and goal prices look fair.
- 1Latvia have scored 0.6 goals a game and none in three matches.
- 2Montenegro have Krstovic and Osmajic up front but lose midfielder Haksabanovic.
- 3Our result and goals numbers sit within three points of the bookmaker prices.
Go deeper
What happened1–2 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–2
Goals
3 (we expected 2.3)
Corners
7 (we expected 10.0)
Cards
2 (we expected 3.9)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia win | 21% | 21% | 0 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Montenegro win | 51% | 52% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 67% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 22% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.35
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
3.9
Late team news (4)Dennis Cirkin stays with Latvia and is available against Montenegro; Kristaps Grabovskis is a doubt with a health issue after…
Dennis Cirkin stays with Latvia and is available against Montenegro; Kristaps Grabovskis is a doubt with a health issue after missing the Armenia game.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Montenegro are without midfielder Sead Haksabanovic for these Nations League games.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Montenegro XI includes Savic, Krstovic and Osmajic; predicted Latvia XI includes Matrevics, Cirkin, Ciganiks, Gutkovskis and Uldrikis.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Latvia had no shots on target in the 0-0 with Cyprus and have failed to score in three straight games.
2026-09-30reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongLatvia sit deep and Montenegro play slowly once ahead, so the corner count stalls at seven or eight.
Latvia sit deep and Montenegro play slowly once ahead, so the corner count stalls at seven or eight.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- The referee's record in international matches (the pack's rates are likely domestic)
- Corner data for several venue games
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Latvia | Montenegro | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals for – against | 0.7 – 1.6 | 0.8 – 1.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.09 – 1.50 | 1.01 – 1.73 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 4.8 – 6.7 | 4.4 – 5.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 2.1 | 2.9 – 2.0 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
4 meetings: 0 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins · 1.8 goals per game.
- 2021-09-07 · Montenegro 0–0 Latvia
- 2021-03-24 · Latvia 1–2 Montenegro
- 2020-10-07 · Montenegro 1–1 Latvia
- 2012-08-15 · Montenegro 2–0 Latvia
Referee
Radoslav Gidzhenov (Bulgaria)
This season: 5.11 yellows and 26.3 fouls per game over 28 matches.
Last 10 matches: 5.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Latvia
None reported
Montenegro
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Latvia
4.43
Draw
3.42
Montenegro
1.80
Over 2.5 goals
2.21
Under 2.5 goals
1.65
Both score: yes
2.06
Both score: no
1.70
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.4%.
Last 10 games — Latvia
| 09-28 | H | Cyprus | 0–0 | D |
| 09-25 | A | Armenia | 0–2 | L |
| 03-31 | H | Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | A | Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 11-16 | A | Serbia | 1–2 | L |
| 10-14 | H | England | 0–5 | L |
| 10-11 | H | Andorra | 2–2 | D |
| 09-09 | A | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 09-06 | H | Serbia | 0–1 | L |
| 06-10 | H | Albania | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Montenegro
| 09-28 | A | Armenia | 3–2 | W |
| 09-25 | H | Cyprus | 2–1 | W |
| 11-17 | H | Croatia | 2–3 | L |
| 11-14 | A | Gibraltar | 2–1 | W |
| 10-09 | A | Faroe Islands | 0–4 | L |
| 09-08 | A | Croatia | 0–4 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Czechia | 0–2 | L |
| 06-06 | A | Czechia | 0–2 | L |
| 03-25 | H | Faroe Islands | 1–0 | W |
| 03-22 | H | Gibraltar | 3–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Montenegro are rightful favourites against a Latvia side without a goal in three games, but the goal markets are priced fairly; the only lean is over 8.5 corners.
Data (pack). Latvia: 2-3-5 in their last 10, 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, failed to score in 50%. They have not scored in three straight games and managed no shots on target against Cyprus. Their chance quality is low (1.08 for, 1.32 against). They average 44% possession and 8.5 shots for vs 13.7 against. Montenegro: 5-0-5 overall but only 3-0-7 in their last 10 away games (0.8 goals scored per game). They won both Nations League games so far (2-1 Cyprus, 3-2 in Armenia) and create 1.63 chances' worth per game. H2H: Latvia winless in 4 (2D 2L), low-scoring. Corners: Latvia games average 11.0 total (they concede 6.6), Montenegro games 9.8. Over 8.5 was hit in 7/10 Latvia games and 8/10 Montenegro games. Cards: referee Gidzhenov averages 5.1–5.5 yellows, likely mostly domestic games. These two teams' recent games average about 3.6–3.8 yellows. Over 3.5 hits about 50% of the time, so there is no card edge after the lesson to lower card forecasts.
News (web). Sports Mole expects Latvia to field Cirkin, Savalnieks and Ciganiks, with Gutkovskis and Uldrikis up front. Grabovskis is a doubt with a health issue. Montenegro have been without Haksabanovic for this window. They are expected to start Krstovic and Osmajic, with Savic in defence. No late rotation news.
Market. The no-margin prices are 21/27/52 and over 2.5 at 43%. My model (about 0.9 vs 1.35 expected goals) gives 21/28/51, over 2.5 at 41% and both sides scoring at 43%. No-score for both sides is 3 points off the price and under 2.5 is about 2, both below the 4-point bar. Latvia not scoring (about 43%) is too close to a coin flip. Corners: blending each side's corners for with the other's corners against gives about 10 total. The Bzzoiro model has over 8.5 at 56%. Team-level hit rates point a bit higher, so I put it at about 60%, low confidence.
Uncertainties. Corner data is missing for 4 of Latvia's and 5 of Montenegro's venue games. Montenegro's weak away record conflicts with their recent form. Latvia may sit deep and give few attacking set pieces.
Analysed by opus with web research.