Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction
Ukraine
Northern IrelandOur pick
Northern Ireland total goals
Northern Ireland under 1.5 goals
Northern Ireland scored one goal or fewer in eight of ten games and rarely create chances away.
Why this pick
Northern Ireland scored one goal or fewer in eight of ten games and rarely create chances away.
Northern Ireland scored one goal or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games, with 0.89 xG for, 37% possession and 3.1 shots on target a game. Ukraine concede 1.0 goals a game at home, and both of Ukraine's recent group games were shutouts (0-0 and 1-0). Bzzoiro's 1.05 xG for Northern Ireland also points to one goal or fewer. Shrunk from about 75% because team-goals picks have been overclaimed in the past.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Northern Ireland to score one goal or fewer: they rarely create much, especially away from home.
- 1Northern Ireland scored one goal or fewer in eight of their last ten games.
- 2Both teams' last two group games ended 0-0 or 1-0.
- 3Ukraine are missing three defenders and midfielders, and Northern Ireland lose Ballard.
Go deeper
What happened0–3 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–3
Goals
3 (we expected 2.0)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.5)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine win | 46% | 48% | -2 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Northern Ireland win | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 65% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 39% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 20% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 44% | -3 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.90
Expected corners
8.5
Expected cards
4.0
Likeliest scores
1-0 (14%) · 1-1 (13%) · 0-0 (11%)
Late team news (5)Match played at Anton Malatinsky Stadium, Trnava (Slovakia); both teams level on 4 points at the top of Group B2.
Match played at Anton Malatinsky Stadium, Trnava (Slovakia); both teams level on 4 points at the top of Group B2.
2026-10-02reliability: highunn.ua
Ukraine without defender Valerii Bondar and midfielder Oleh Ocheretko.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumunn.ua
Vitaliy Mykolenko ruled out through illness, confirmed by coach Andrea Maldera.
2026-10-01reliability: highmezha.net
Dan Ballard (hamstring) ruled out of the rest of the window; McConville partners Brown and Atcheson in a back three.
2026-09reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Ali McCann out with a hamstring injury; O'Neill expected to name the same XI that drew with Hungary.
2026-10reliability: mediumthefootballfaithful.com
What could go wrongUkraine play without Mykolenko and Bondar, so a weaker back line could let Northern Ireland score twice.
Ukraine play without Mykolenko and Bondar, so a weaker back line could let Northern Ireland score twice.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Referee appointment not independently verified
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Ukraine | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals for – against | 1.1 – 1.0 | 1.0 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.30 – 1.30 | 0.90 – 1.02 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 5.2 – 5.0 | 3.2 – 5.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 1.8 | 2.3 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins · 1.5 goals per game.
- 2021-06-03 · Ukraine 1–0 Northern Ireland
- 2016-06-16 · Ukraine 0–2 Northern Ireland
Referee
Jasper Vergoote (Belgium)
This season: 3.10 yellows and 22.2 fouls per game over 40 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.30 yellows per game.
Absences
Ukraine
V. Vanat (injured: national_team)
Northern Ireland
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Ukraine
1.95
Draw
3.24
Northern Ireland
4.15
Over 2.5 goals
2.43
Under 2.5 goals
1.55
Both score: yes
2.10
Both score: no
1.67
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.2%.
Last 10 games — Ukraine
| 09-28 | A | Georgia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-25 | A | Hungary | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | H | Sweden | 1–3 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Iceland | 2–0 | W |
| 11-13 | A | France | 0–4 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Azerbaijan | 2–1 | W |
| 10-10 | A | Iceland | 5–3 | W |
| 09-09 | A | Azerbaijan | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | France | 0–2 | L |
| 03-23 | A | Belgium | 0–3 | L |
Last 10 games — Northern Ireland
| 09-28 | H | Hungary | 0–0 | D |
| 09-25 | A | Georgia | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | A | Italy | 0–2 | L |
| 11-17 | H | Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Slovakia | 0–1 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Germany | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | H | Slovakia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-07 | A | Germany | 1–3 | L |
| 09-04 | A | Luxembourg | 3–1 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Luxembourg | 2–2 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A tight, low-scoring game in Trnava; Ukraine are slight favourites, and the one bet worth making is Northern Ireland scoring no more than once.
(a) Data (pack). Each team's last two Nations League games ended 0-0 or 1-0. Ukraine drew 0-0 in Georgia (chances created 0.2 v 0.9) and won 1-0 in Hungary. Northern Ireland won 1-0 in Georgia and drew 0-0 with Hungary. Northern Ireland average 0.89 xG for, 37% possession and 3.1 shots on target, and they scored one goal or fewer in 8/10 games. Ukraine's attack is ordinary (1.02 xG for, failed to score in 40%), and at home they concede 1.0 goals a game. Northern Ireland's last 10 games: over 2.5 goals in 30%, both teams scored in 30%. Referee Vergoote shows 3.1–3.3 yellows a game, close to both teams' averages (about 4.5 combined yellows in their games). After the lesson correction I expect about 4.0 cards, so no card bet. Expected corners are about 8.5, in line with Bzzoiro's 47.8% for over 8.5, so no corners bet either.
(b) News (web). The game is in Trnava, Slovakia, so Ukraine's home advantage is reduced. Ukraine are without Mykolenko (ill), Bondar and Ocheretko, plus Vanat as listed in the pack. Northern Ireland lose Ballard (hamstring) and McCann. O'Neill is expected to keep the XI that drew with Hungary. Both teams are level on 4 points at the top of the group, so neither has a strong reason to take risks.
(c) Market. 1X2 of 48/29/23 is sensible. I move slightly toward the draw (46/31/23) because the venue is neutral and both teams have been cagey. The price makes under 2.5 goals 61%. I have it at about 63%, which is short of the 4-point bar. Northern Ireland's own goals line has no price in the pack. With an expected 0.9 goals, a raw model puts one goal or fewer at about 75%. After shrinking for the team-goals lesson, I claim 66%.
(d) Uncertainties. Ukraine's makeshift defence. Rain at 17°C. A Northern Ireland set-piece goal plus one late on would beat the pick (their goals have been spread across the whole 90 minutes).
Analysed by opus with web research.