Wales vs Norway prediction
Wales
NorwayOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Neither side picks up many bookings; their games average three to four cards in total.
Why this pick
Neither side picks up many bookings; their games average three to four cards in total.
Wales games average 4.0 total yellows and Norway games 2.6 (2.6 away). Neither side has averaged more than 0.1 reds per game. The past-results correction lowers card expectations further. The referee's high recent rate (5.6) is the main counter-signal, which keeps confidence low.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Norway should win, but the odds already show it; small lean to under 4.5 cards between two rarely booked teams.
- 1Wales have lost twice without scoring and miss Harry Wilson and Joe Rodon.
- 2Haaland leads Norway; Ødegaard trained but remains a late fitness doubt.
- 3Norway's win price matches our number, so there is no value in the result.
Go deeper
What happened2–1 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–1
Goals
3 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
6 (we expected 9.6)
Cards
6 (we expected 3.4)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Both teams score — we say 51%, bookmakers 55%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales win | 14% | 15% | -1 |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | -1 |
| Norway win | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 82% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 40% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 55% | -4 |
| Penalty in the match | 28% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.90
Expected corners
9.6
Expected cards
3.4
Likeliest scores
1-2 (11%) · 0-2 (9%) · 1-1 (9%)
Late team news (4)Wales without Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow, Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies through injury
Wales without Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow, Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies through injury
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Wales XI: Ward; Roberts, Mepham, Davies, N Williams; Ampadu, Sheehan; D James, Johnson, Thomas; Koumas
2026-09-30reliability: lowsportsmole.co.uk
Ødegaard (ankle) trained in Cardiff on 30 Sept after missing a session; Solbakken unsure whether he plays, team doctor found no significant damage
2026-10-01reliability: mediumarsenalnews.co.uk
Sørloth injured; Wolfe back from suspension; Ryerson a doubt; Haaland confirmed to lead the attack
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongReferee Hernández showed 5.6 yellows per game in his last ten; a feisty, rainy game breaks the under.
Referee Hernández showed 5.6 yellows per game in his last ten; a feisty, rainy game breaks the under.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Final decision on Ødegaard and Ryerson
- Referee's record in international matches specifically
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Wales | Norway | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals for – against | 2.1 – 1.3 | 2.7 – 1.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.88 – 1.22 | 2.16 – 1.27 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Corners for – against | 8.0 – 3.0 | 4.3 – 5.3 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.4 – 2.9 | 1.2 – 1.4 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins · 5.0 goals per game.
- 2011-11-12 · Wales 4–1 Norway
Referee
Alejandro Hernandez (Spain)
This season: 4.23 yellows and 23.7 fouls per game over 44 matches.
Last 10 matches: 5.60 yellows per game.
Absences
Wales
I. Davies (injured: Muscle Injury)
K. Darlow (injured: Knock Injury)
N. Broadhead (injured: Thigh Injury)
Norway
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Wales
6.49
Draw
4.78
Norway
1.44
Over 2.5 goals
1.52
Under 2.5 goals
2.44
Both score: yes
1.69
Both score: no
2.08
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.8%.
Last 10 games — Wales
| 09-27 | A | Denmark | 0–2 | L |
| 09-24 | A | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 11-18 | H | North Macedonia | 7–1 | W |
| 11-15 | A | Liechtenstein | 1–0 | W |
| 10-13 | H | Belgium | 2–4 | L |
| 09-04 | A | Kazakhstan | 1–0 | W |
| 06-09 | A | Belgium | 3–4 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Liechtenstein | 3–0 | W |
| 03-25 | A | North Macedonia | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Norway
| 09-27 | H | Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 09-24 | H | Denmark | 3–2 | W |
| 07-11 | H | England | 1–1 | D |
| 07-05 | A | Brazil | 2–1 | W |
| 06-30 | A | Côte d'Ivoire | 2–1 | W |
| 06-26 | H | France | 1–4 | L |
| 06-23 | H | Senegal | 3–2 | W |
| 06-16 | A | Iraq | 4–1 | W |
| 11-16 | A | Italy | 4–1 | W |
| 11-13 | H | Estonia | 4–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Norway are rightly heavy favourites against a depleted Wales without Wilson and Rodon, but the prices leave no goals edge; the only lean is a low card count.
Data (pack). Wales: 1.4 pts/g over the last 10, but the two most recent games against strong sides were 0-1 at Portugal and 0-2 at Denmark (chances created 0.7 and 1.1, opponents had 20+ shots). At home they are better (2.1 goals for, 1.3 against), but that is inflated by Liechtenstein and North Macedonia. Their only home game against a top side was a 2-4 loss to Belgium. Norway: 2.2 pts/g, 8-1-1 away, both sides scored in all of their last 10 games, and they score late (8 of 24 goals after 75'). Cards are low on both sides: Wales games average 4.0 yellows in total, Norway games 2.6, and Norway away 2.6. Referee Hernández runs high: 4.23 per game this season, 5.6 in his last 10. Corners: Wales average 11 at home, but against Portugal the count was 2-10. The Bzzoiro corners line of 8.5 sits at 58%, so there is no clear edge.
News (web). Wales are without Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon, Broadhead, Darlow, Lawlor, Colwill and Isaak Davies. That takes out their main creator and their best centre-back. Norway have Haaland. Sørloth is out. Ødegaard (ankle) trained in Cardiff, but Solbakken would not confirm he will play. Ryerson is also a doubt. Wolfe returns from suspension.
Market. Norway are priced at 65.7% with the margin removed. Wales' absences justify only a small nudge to 67%, which is below the 4-point bar. Expected goals are about 1.0 for Wales and 1.9 for Norway, giving over 2.5 at roughly 58% against 61.6% in the market and both sides scoring at about 51% against 55%. Nothing priced beats the market. Norway over 1.5 goals comes out at about 57% before the lesson-based shrink, so it is no pick.
Cards lean. The teams' own card rates (about 3.3 combined) and the lesson to lower card expectations by 0.75 point to about 3.4 cards. The referee's high recent rate is the counter-signal, so the lean is under 4.5 at about 62%, low confidence.
Uncertainties. Whether Ødegaard plays, how much rain and a home crowd add to fouls, and Wales' weakened defence possibly producing a lopsided score.
Analysed by opus with web research.