Greece vs Netherlands prediction
Greece
NetherlandsOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Both teams' recent games and the referee's adjusted rate point to about three or four cards, not five.
Why this pick
Both teams' recent games and the referee's adjusted rate point to about three or four cards, not five.
Greek games average 3.5 yellows and Dutch games 2.8, and 5+ cards happened in only 2/10 for each side. Guida's 3.66 per game comes from Serie A, and our past forecasts ran about 0.75 cards too high. The expected total is about 3.4, putting under 4.5 near 64%. The counterweights are a top-of-group game and a full Toumba.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back under 4.5 cards: neither side collects many bookings, and Dutch absences don't create value in the result.
- 1Greece have won both group games, including their first-ever win over Germany.
- 2Netherlands miss Gakpo, Brobbey, Frenkie de Jong and Malen; Greece lose right-back Vagiannidis.
- 3Dutch games average under three yellow cards; Greek games about three and a half.
Go deeper
What happened2–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–2
Goals
4 (we expected 2.7)
Corners
14 (we expected 9.3)
Cards
3 (we expected 3.4)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece win | 30% | 28% | +2 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Netherlands win | 43% | 46% | -3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 79% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 36% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 60% | -3 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Expected corners
9.3
Expected cards
3.4
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%) · 0-1 (9%)
Late team news (6)Gakpo withdrew from the Netherlands squad with an ankle injury from the Serbia game and returned to Liverpool.
Gakpo withdrew from the Netherlands squad with an ankle injury from the Serbia game and returned to Liverpool.
2026-09-28reliability: highbeinsports.com
Brian Brobbey is also out injured for the Netherlands; Van Hecke is doubtful with a foot problem (sources conflict).
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Dutch XI has Meerdink, Summerville and Van Bommel in attack; Xavi is the manager.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Greece right-back Vagiannidis is definitely out against the Netherlands and Germany; Tsapras was called up to replace him.
2026-09-29reliability: highgazzetta.gr
Greece expected to keep the same core from both group wins; the match is at a sold-out Toumba in Thessaloniki.
2026-10-01reliability: mediumertnews.gr
Earlier long-term Dutch absences include De Ligt, Schouten and Xavi Simons.
2026-09reliability: mediumyardbarker.com
What could go wrongA heated top-of-group game in a full Toumba pushes Guida, who showed 4 yellows a game recently, to five-plus cards.
A heated top-of-group game in a full Toumba pushes Guida, who showed 4 yellows a game recently, to five-plus cards.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Van Hecke's final availability (sources conflict)
- Guida's card rate in international matches specifically
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Greece | Netherlands | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals for – against | 2.1 – 1.1 | 1.9 – 1.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.91 – 1.42 | 1.75 – 0.99 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.7 – 6.0 | 5.3 – 2.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.6 | 1.1 – 1.9 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins · 2.0 goals per game.
- 2016-09-01 · Netherlands 1–2 Greece
- 1980-06-11 · Netherlands 1–0 Greece
Referee
Marco Guida (Italy)
This season: 3.66 yellows and 23.4 fouls per game over 38 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.00 yellows per game.
Absences
Greece
G. Konstantelias (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
S. Kontouris (injured: Knee Injury)
Netherlands
C. Gakpo (injured: Ankle Injury)
D. Malen (injured: Knee Injury)
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. Kluivert (injured: Strain Injury)
M. Wieffer (injured: Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Greece
3.39
Draw
3.58
Netherlands
2.05
Over 2.5 goals
1.67
Under 2.5 goals
2.19
Both score: yes
1.56
Both score: no
2.32
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.2%.
Last 10 games — Greece
| 09-27 | A | Germany | 1–0 | W |
| 09-24 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Belarus | 0–0 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Scotland | 3–2 | W |
| 10-12 | A | Denmark | 1–3 | L |
| 10-09 | A | Scotland | 1–3 | L |
| 09-08 | H | Denmark | 0–3 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Belarus | 5–1 | W |
| 03-23 | A | Scotland | 3–0 | W |
| 03-20 | H | Scotland | 0–1 | L |
Last 10 games — Netherlands
| 09-27 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 09-24 | H | Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 06-30 | H | Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
| 06-20 | H | Sweden | 5–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Japan | 2–2 | D |
| 11-17 | H | Lithuania | 4–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Poland | 1–1 | D |
| 10-12 | H | Finland | 4–0 | W |
| 10-09 | A | Malta | 4–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
The market has the depleted Netherlands about right as slight favourites at a packed Toumba; no goals price stands out, but a modest card count looks likely.
Data (pack): Greece are 7-0-3 in their last 10 home games (2.1 goals for, 1.1 against). They opened this group by winning 2-1 at Serbia and 1-0 at Germany, though they were outshot 8-16 in Germany. The Netherlands are unbeaten in 10 (6-4-0), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Away from home that drops to 1.9 for and 1.0 against, and their chances created are 1.75 for and 0.99 against per game. The Dutch win corners (6.0 for, 3.2 against), and Greece average 5.5 for and 5.1 against. Cards: Greek games average 3.5 yellows in total (1.9 + 1.6) and Dutch games 2.8 (1.1 + 1.7). Only 2 of 10 matches for each side reached 5+ yellows. Referee Guida averages 3.66 yellows per game this season and 4.0 in his last 10, all in Italian club football, where cards run higher than in internationals. Applying the learned −0.75 correction gives an expected total of about 3.4 cards.
News (web): Gakpo (ankle) and Brobbey are out for the Dutch, on top of the pack's list (F. de Jong, Malen, Kluivert, Wieffer). Van Hecke is a doubt with a foot problem. Meerdink scored twice at Serbia and is expected to lead the attack. Greece lose right-back Vagiannidis, and Tsapras was called up to replace him. The rest of the Greek side that started both group games is expected to start again, in front of a sold-out Toumba in Thessaloniki. Rain is forecast.
Market: Without the bookmaker's margin, the prices give Greece 27.8%, the draw 26.3% and the Netherlands 45.9%. I nudge Greece up slightly (home form, momentum, a weakened Dutch attack) to 30/27/43. That is not enough for a 4-point edge. On goals, the expected chances (about 1.25 v 1.45) give roughly 53% for over 2.5 against the market's 56.7%. No priced edge.
Pick: Under 4.5 cards. Both teams' totals and the referee's adjusted rate point to about 3.4 cards. The 5+ rate is 20% in each team's sample, and I estimate about 64% for under 4.5. The stakes (top of the group) and a lively crowd are the counterweight, so confidence is low to medium.
Uncertainties: The Dutch line-up after so many absences; how Greece cope without Vagiannidis; whether Guida's Serie A strictness carries over to an international game.
Analysed by opus with web research.