Germany vs Serbia prediction
Germany
SerbiaOur pick
Goals over/under 3.5
under 3.5 goals
Both attacks are weakened by injuries, and Serbia's away games rarely produce four goals.
Why this pick
Both attacks are weakened by injuries, and Serbia's away games rarely produce four goals.
Germany have scored 1 goal in their last two games and are missing Musiala and Havertz. Serbia reportedly lack their main strikers, and only 10% of their last 10 away games went over 3.5. Germany's last six competitive games produced 2-3 goals each. The market's 51% for four or more goals looks too high against an expected total of about 2.8.
- Odds
- 1.94
- Odds imply
- 49.1%
- Actual
- 2
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
In short
Back under 3.5 goals: weakened Germany attack against a Serbia side missing its main strikers.
- 1Germany scored just once in two Nations League games this month.
- 2Germany lose Musiala and Havertz; Serbia reportedly lack Mitrović and Vlahović.
- 3Bookmakers make four-plus goals a coin flip; we rate it nearer 42%.
Go deeper
What happened2–0 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–0
Goals
2 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
13 (we expected 10.3)
Cards
3 (we expected 3.4)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 42%, bookmakers 51%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 76% | 79% | -3 |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | +1 |
| Serbia win | 9% | 8% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 88% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | -7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 51% | -9 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 51% | -5 |
| Penalty in the match | 30% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 11% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.80
Expected corners
10.3
Expected cards
3.4
Likeliest scores
2-0 (13%) · 1-0 (10%) · 2-1 (10%)
Late team news (5)Musiala still out; Havertz ruled out with suspected hamstring injury; Wirtz and Burkardt called up as cover.
Musiala still out; Havertz ruled out with suspected hamstring injury; Wirtz and Burkardt called up as cover.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumbundesliga.com
Jonas Urbig expected to make senior debut in goal; predicted XI Urbig; Baku, Anton, Thiaw, Raum; Janelt, Pavlović; Adeyemi, Wirtz, El Mala/Bischof; Burkardt.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Schlotterbeck ruled out with lateral ankle ligament injury from final training.
2026-09-30reliability: highflashscore.com
Serbia without Mitrović, Vlahović and Milenković through injury.
2026-09-30reliability: lowthefootballfaithful.com
Serbia bottom of the group on 0 points and facing relegation to League B; Germany third on 1 point and needing a win.
2026-09-30reliability: mediumgoal.com
What could go wrongSerbia's leaky defence, which conceded twice in each of its last two games, collapses and Germany run up a big score.
Serbia's leaky defence, which conceded twice in each of its last two games, collapses and Germany run up a big score.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Official confirmation of Serbia's striker absences (sources low reliability)
- Serbia coach's tactical plan
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Germany | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 2.7 – 1.2 | 0.7 – 1.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.46 – 0.92 | 1.06 – 1.55 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Corners for – against | 8.3 – 2.9 | 6.2 – 4.2 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.2 | 2.1 – 1.6 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins · 1.5 goals per game.
- 2019-03-20 · Germany 1–1 Serbia
- 2010-06-18 · Germany 0–1 Serbia
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
This season: 3.82 yellows and 22.6 fouls per game over 34 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.00 yellows per game.
Absences
Germany
A. Ouédraogo (injured: Shoulder Injury)
J. Musiala (injured: Thigh Injury)
L. Goretzka (injured: Knee Injury)
N. Schlotterbeck (injured: Ankle Injury)
Serbia
D. Joveljić (injured: national_team)
S. Džodić (injured: national_team)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Germany
1.21
Draw
6.83
Serbia
12.62
Over 2.5 goals
1.33
Under 2.5 goals
3.25
Both score: yes
1.83
Both score: no
1.90
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.2%.
Last 10 games — Germany
| 09-27 | H | Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 09-24 | A | Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 06-29 | H | Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
| 06-20 | H | Côte d'Ivoire | 2–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Curaçao | 7–1 | W |
| 11-17 | H | Slovakia | 6–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Luxembourg | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | A | Northern Ireland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | H | Luxembourg | 4–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Serbia
| 09-27 | H | Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 09-24 | H | Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Latvia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-13 | A | England | 0–2 | L |
| 10-14 | A | Andorra | 3–1 | W |
| 10-11 | H | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | H | England | 0–5 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Latvia | 1–0 | W |
| 06-10 | H | Andorra | 3–0 | W |
| 06-07 | A | Albania | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Germany should beat a striker-less, bottom-placed Serbia, but with key players missing on both sides the game looks lower-scoring than the market prices, so under 3.5 goals is the value.
Data (pack). Germany: 2.5 scored and 0.7 conceded per game over the last 10, but the gap to Serbia is smaller now. They drew 1-1 in the Netherlands (chances 1.5-3.1 against them) and lost 0-1 at home to Greece despite 16 shots. They have conceded in each of their last 6 games. At home they win the corner count heavily (8.3 for, 2.9 against). Serbia lost both group games 1-2 and allowed 25-26 shots in each. Away, Serbia averaged 0.7 goals, failed to score in 50% of games and saw only 20%/10% of games go over 2.5/3.5. The referee, Eskas, averages 3.8-4.0 yellows per game, but both teams book few players (1.1 and 1.3 yellows per game). The past-results lesson says to trim card expectations, so I have about 3.4 cards, and that gives no edge.
News (web). Germany are without Musiala, Havertz (hamstring), Schlotterbeck (ankle), Goretzka and Ouédraogo. Debutant Jonas Urbig is expected in goal. The attack is rebuilt around Wirtz, Adeyemi and Burkardt. Previews report Serbia without Mitrović, Vlahović and Milenkovic (low-to-medium reliability). Serbia, bottom with 0 points, are fighting to avoid relegation, so expect them to sit deep. Germany, on 1 point, need the win.
Market. 1X2 is 78.6/13.9/7.5. I stay close at 76/15/9 because Germany's attack is depleted and their recent form is poor. My expected goals are about 2.0-0.8. A simple goals model gives around 69% for three goals or fewer. I shrink that toward the market to about 58%, still well above the 49.1% implied for under 3.5. Over 2.5 (71% implied) and both teams scoring (50.9%) are close to my numbers, so no edge there. Corners: the Bzzoiro model gives over 9.5 at 45%, and nothing clears the 58% bar.
Uncertainties. Serbia's defence has been shredded lately (51 shots faced in two games), so an early Germany goal could open up a 4-0 or 4-1. Some preview details look unreliable (e.g. one claimed Serbia conceded 13 in five games, which the pack contradicts), so the absence news is weighted cautiously.
Analysed by opus with web research.