Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction
Switzerland
SloveniaOur picks
Total goals
under 2.5 goals
Slovenia barely score, their top forwards are out, and the heavy pitch should slow the game.
Why this pick
Slovenia barely score, their top forwards are out, and the heavy pitch should slow the game.
Slovenia are missing Šeško, Verbič and Šporar, and their last 10 games had only a 20% over-2.5 rate with 0.5 goals scored a game. Switzerland are without Xhaka and Embolo, and Yakin flagged a wet, soft pitch. Our model puts the total near 2.25 goals, about 55-60% under, against a 49% implied price.
- Odds
- 1.93
- Odds imply
- 49.2%
- Actual
- 3
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
62%Total cardsunder 4.5 cardsLost
Card rates in Switzerland games (about 3.3) and Slovenia games (3.4) agree, and the referee averaged 3.7 yellows with no reds over his last 10. The model forecasts about 3.4 cards after the correction for past over-prediction. His season rate of 4.18 is the counterweight.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back under 2.5 goals: Slovenia's attack is gutted and their games rarely see three goals.
- 1Slovenia scored 0.5 goals a game; only 2 of their last 10 had three goals.
- 2Šeško, Verbič and Šporar are out; Switzerland are also without Xhaka and Embolo.
- 3We make under 2.5 goals about 55%; the price implies only 49%.
Go deeper
What happened2–1 · 0 of 2 picks won
Final score
2–1
Goals
3 (we expected 2.3)
Corners
7 (we expected 8.6)
Cards
6 (we expected 3.4)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 22%, bookmakers 30%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 70% | 72% | -2 |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | +2 |
| Slovenia win | 10% | 10% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 75% | -5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% | -6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 30% | -8 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 40% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.65
Expected corners
8.6
Expected cards
3.4
Likeliest scores
1-0 (15%) · 2-0 (13%) · 1-1 (10%)
Late team news (5)Benjamin Šeško withdrawn from the Slovenia squad for the October window with a recurring shin injury.
Benjamin Šeško withdrawn from the Slovenia squad for the October window with a recurring shin injury.
2026-09reliability: highsports.yahoo.com
Verbič and Šporar also out injured; Vipotnik expected to lead the line, Oblak in goal.
2026-10-01reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Xhaka and Embolo not in the Switzerland squad (reported false COVID certificate issue); Amdouni leads the line.
2026-10-01reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Whole Switzerland squad fit, Itten included; Yakin worried the Lucerne pitch is wet and soft, final training moved elsewhere.
2026-10-02reliability: highsrf.ch
A win would be a big step toward promotion to League A for Switzerland.
2026-10reliability: mediumblick.ch
What could go wrongSwitzerland score early at home, Slovenia have to come out, and the game opens up like the 3-0 wins.
Switzerland score early at home, Slovenia have to come out, and the game opens up like the 3-0 wins.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Independent confirmation of the Xhaka/Embolo exclusion beyond Sports Mole
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Switzerland | Slovenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 2.3 – 1.0 | 0.4 – 0.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.82 – 0.84 | 0.65 – 1.27 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Corners for – against | 4.0 – 4.0 | 3.4 – 6.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.9 | 2.0 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
4 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 1.5 goals per game.
- 2025-10-13 · Slovenia 0–0 Switzerland
- 2025-09-08 · Switzerland 3–0 Slovenia
- 2013-10-15 · Switzerland 1–0 Slovenia
- 2012-09-07 · Slovenia 0–2 Switzerland
Referee
Ivan Kružliak (Slovakia)
This season: 4.18 yellows and 23.9 fouls per game over 22 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Switzerland
A. Amenda (injured: Calf Injury)
D. Zakaria (injured: Groin Injury)
L. Jaquez (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
S. Widmer (injured: Knee Injury)
Slovenia
B. Šeško (injured: Shin Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Switzerland
1.31
Draw
5.06
Slovenia
9.53
Over 2.5 goals
1.87
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
Both score: yes
2.34
Both score: no
1.55
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.6%.
Last 10 games — Switzerland
| 09-29 | A | Scotland | 3–0 | W |
| 09-26 | A | North Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 07-12 | A | Argentina | 1–1 | D |
| 07-07 | H | Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 07-03 | H | Algeria | 2–0 | W |
| 06-24 | H | Canada | 2–1 | W |
| 06-18 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | W |
| 06-13 | A | Qatar | 1–1 | D |
| 11-18 | A | Kosovo | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Sweden | 4–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Slovenia
| 09-29 | H | North Macedonia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-26 | H | Scotland | 0–0 | D |
| 11-18 | A | Sweden | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Kosovo | 0–2 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Switzerland | 0–0 | D |
| 10-10 | A | Kosovo | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | A | Switzerland | 0–3 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Sweden | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | H | Slovakia | 0–0 | D |
| 03-20 | A | Slovakia | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Switzerland should win, but with Slovenia missing their whole first-choice attack and the pitch wet and heavy, under 2.5 goals is the value.
Data (pack). Switzerland are 6-4-0 over their last 10 (2.1 scored, 0.6 conceded, chances created 1.55 v 0.74) and won 3-0 in North Macedonia and 3-0 in Scotland in this window. At home, 7 of 10 went over 2.5. Slovenia are a low-event side: 1-7-2, 0.5 scored and 0.8 conceded a game, failed to score in 70%, only 20% over 2.5, chances created 0.85. Away they average 38% possession and 1.8 shots on target. Head-to-head: Switzerland 6-0 on goals over 4 meetings, including 0-0 in Ljubljana in Oct 2025. Referee Kružliak: 4.18 yellows a game this season, 3.7 over his last 10, no reds in 22 games. Card rates: Switzerland games about 3.3 a game, Slovenia games 3.4.
News (web). Slovenia: Šeško (shin), Verbič and Šporar are out, so Vipotnik leads the line with Oblak in goal (Sports Mole, Yahoo). Switzerland: Xhaka and Embolo were left out of the squad (Sports Mole). Everyone else is fit, Itten included. Yakin worried the Lucerne pitch is "wet and soft" and moved the final training session elsewhere (SRF, 2 Oct). With a win, Switzerland take a big step toward promotion.
Market. The 1X2 prices (71.6/18.5/9.8) look fair. We make it 70/20/10, so there is no edge on the result. The goals market sits at roughly 50/50 on 2.5. We expect Switzerland about 1.6 and Slovenia about 0.65 (marked down from the 0.87 third-party figure because of the missing forwards), a total near 2.25. On a standard goal model that gives about 60% under. Shrunk for Switzerland's high-scoring home record, we land on about 55% under, a 6-point edge. Both sides scoring at 38% is close to the 39.8% market price, so no bet there. Cards: team rates and the referee's last 10 games both point to about 3.4, which puts under 4.5 cards at about 63%. Corners blend to about 8.6, close to the third-party line, so no bet.
Uncertainties. If Switzerland's two 3-0s carry on, the game goes over. The referee's season rate of 4.18 is higher than his recent form. We could not confirm the starting XIs.
Analysed by opus with web research.