Spain vs Croatia prediction
Spain
CroatiaOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Both sides average under one yellow a game, and the referee's recent average is only 2.9.
Why this pick
Both sides average under one yellow a game, and the referee's recent average is only 2.9.
Both teams take few bookings: Spain 0.7 and Croatia 0.9 yellows per game over their last 10. Total cards were 4 or fewer in 8 of 10 Spain games and 9 of 10 Croatia games. The referee averaged 2.9 yellows in his last 10 (3.94 over the season). A Nations League group game has lower stakes than a knockout. The model expects about 3.2 cards; with overdispersion that gives roughly 68% for 4 or fewer.
- Actual
- 5
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Spain should win, but the price is too short; the only lean is under 4.5 cards in a tidy game.
- 1Spain are unbeaten in 10 and allowed Croatia's type of opponent almost nothing.
- 2Spain are only missing fringe players; Croatia are without Baturina and centre-back Erlić.
- 3Both teams pick up few bookings, and the referee averaged 2.9 yellows recently.
Go deeper
What happened4–1 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
4–1
Goals
5 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
8 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
5 (we expected 3.2)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 37%, bookmakers 43%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 78% | 80% | -2 |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | +1 |
| Croatia win | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 83% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | -5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 43% | -6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 11% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.95
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
3.2
Likeliest scores
2-0 (11%) · 1-0 (10%) · 2-1 (10%)
Late team news (5)Spain goalkeeper Joan García withdrew with a minor knee injury; Josep Martínez called up.
Spain goalkeeper Joan García withdrew with a minor knee injury; Josep Martínez called up. Eric García and Pedro Porro also withdrew; Le Normand added.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
Spain predicted XI: Simón; Pubill, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal. Pubill moves to right back to cover Porro.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumsi.com
Croatia: Erlić (foot) and Juranović (hamstring) withdrew; Majer, Pongračić and Jakić called up. Baturina is ill.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Slaven Bilić replaced Zlatko Dalić as Croatia coach after the World Cup. Expected XI includes Livaković, Gvardiol, Modrić, Kovačić and Budimir.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumsi.com
The match is at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
What could go wrongA heated second half with Croatia chasing the game, or the referee reverting to his 3.9-yellow season average.
A heated second half with Croatia chasing the game, or the referee reverting to his 3.9-yellow season average.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Bookmaker prices for cards and corners
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Spain | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals for – against | 2.4 – 0.9 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.92 – 0.91 | 1.88 – 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 8.4 – 1.3 | 6.6 – 4.9 |
| Yellows for – against | 0.9 – 2.2 | 1.8 – 1.2 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
7 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins · 3.7 goals per game.
- 2024-06-15 · Spain 3–0 Croatia
- 2023-06-18 · Croatia 0–0 Spain
- 2021-06-28 · Croatia 3–5 Spain
- 2018-11-15 · Croatia 3–2 Spain
- 2018-09-11 · Spain 6–0 Croatia
Referee
Serdar Gozubuyuk (Netherlands)
This season: 3.94 yellows and 23.3 fouls per game over 51 matches.
Last 10 matches: 2.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Spain
E. García (injured: Knee Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
P. Porro (injured: Physical Discomfort)
Croatia
M. Baturina (injured: Illness)
M. Erlić (injured: Unknown)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Spain
1.18
Draw
7.11
Croatia
12.80
Over 2.5 goals
1.44
Under 2.5 goals
2.65
Both score: yes
2.09
Both score: no
1.68
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.6%.
Last 10 games — Spain
| 09-26 | A | England | 3–2 | W |
| 07-19 | H | Argentina | 0–0 | D |
| 07-14 | A | France | 2–0 | W |
| 07-10 | H | Belgium | 2–1 | W |
| 07-06 | A | Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 07-02 | H | Austria | 3–0 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Uruguay | 1–0 | W |
| 06-21 | H | Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W |
| 06-15 | H | Cabo Verde | 0–0 | D |
| 11-18 | H | Türkiye | 2–2 | D |
Last 10 games — Croatia
| 09-26 | A | Czechia | 2–1 | W |
| 07-02 | A | Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 06-27 | H | Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 06-23 | A | Panama | 1–0 | W |
| 06-17 | A | England | 2–4 | L |
| 11-17 | A | Montenegro | 3–2 | W |
| 11-14 | H | Faroe Islands | 3–1 | W |
| 10-12 | H | Gibraltar | 3–0 | W |
| 10-09 | A | Czechia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | H | Montenegro | 4–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Spain are rightly heavy favourites in Seville; the price leaves no value on the result or goals, so the only lean is a low card count.
Data (pack). Spain are 7-3-0 in their last 10 with 0.5 goals conceded per game (0.54 expected against) and 7 clean sheets. They scored first in 8 of 8 games that weren't 0-0. At home they average 2.4 goals for, 23.4 shots and 8.4 corners for against 1.25 against. Croatia's away record is weaker at 5-1-4. Their away losses to England (2-4) and Portugal (1-2) are the closest guides to this game, and both times they lost the corner count badly (2-8, 5-9). They do score late (7 of 21 goals after the 75th minute). Spain concede very little early on, so a clean Spain win is the main outcome, and Croatia's late goals are the main threat to that.
Cards. Spain average 0.7 yellows per game and Croatia 0.9. Total cards were 4 or fewer in 8 of Spain's last 10 matches and 9 of Croatia's last 10. Referee Gozubuyuk averages 3.94 yellows per game this season but only 2.9 in his last 10, with no penalties scored in those 10. Applying the lesson on past cards forecasts, I expect about 3.2 cards in total.
Corners. Spain should get around 6.5 and Croatia around 2.5, so about 9 in total. That matches Bzzoiro's 40% for over 9.5, so there is no edge either way.
News (web). Joan García, Porro and Eric García are out for Spain. Unai Simón keeps goal, Pubill moves to right back, and Rodri, Pedri and Yamal all start. Baena and Oyarzabal are expected to come in. Croatia are without Erlić and Juranović, and Baturina is ill. Their expected XI has Modrić, Kovačić, Gvardiol and Budimir under new coach Bilić. Both sides played 3 days ago, so rest is equal.
Market. The odds give Spain 79.5%, which fits the data. My model has Spain at about 2.0 expected goals and Croatia at about 0.95, giving an over 2.5 goals probability of about 57%. I set it at 60%, a little under the market's 65%, but that gap isn't big enough to bet under 2.5 at 2.65. BTTS is close to the market price. No priced market clears the 4-point bar, and past lessons say to be careful betting against the market.
Uncertainties. Spain's lineup is still predicted, not confirmed. Seville heat (26°C) and wind could affect the game. The referee's season card rate is higher than his recent one.
Analysed by opus with web research.