Czechia vs England prediction
Czechia
EnglandOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Both teams' games have gone over four bookings only once in ten; only the referee argues otherwise.
Why this pick
Both teams' games have gone over four bookings only once in ten; only the referee argues otherwise.
In their last 10 games, total bookings went over 4.5 only once for Czechia and once for England. Both sides average fewer than 3.5 cards per match including the opponent's, and past forecasts have over-predicted cards. The main counter-signal is the referee, Meler, at 4.8-5.4 yellows a game, mostly in club football.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
No value on the result at 1.34; slight lean to under 4.5 cards, since both teams rarely get booked.
- 1Czechia have won once in nine and have lost Soucek, Provod and Chory.
- 2England are without Rice, Palmer and Stones, and two defenders are doubts.
- 3Both teams' games usually see only two or three bookings in total.
Go deeper
What happened0–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–2
Goals
2 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
7 (we expected 9.8)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.7)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia win | 11% | 11% | 0 |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | -1 |
| England win | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 78% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 35% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 11% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.85
Expected corners
9.8
Expected cards
3.7
Late team news (6)Czechia missing Zima, Jurasek, Rynes, Vlcek, Provod, Visinsky, Chory; Soucek out with ankle ligament injury; new manager Santi…
Czechia missing Zima, Jurasek, Rynes, Vlcek, Provod, Visinsky, Chory; Soucek out with ankle ligament injury; new manager Santi Denia
2026-09-28reliability: mediumuk.sports.yahoo.com
Adam Karabec major doubt after limping off vs Croatia; Hornicek to start in goal, Coufal captain
2026-09-28reliability: mediumuk.sports.yahoo.com
Palmer, Rice, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento withdrew from England squad
2026-09-28reliability: highgoal.com
Konsa and O'Reilly missed final training session, doubtful
2026-09-28reliability: highgoal.com
Trafford to start in goal with Henderson injured; Kane captains
2026-09-28reliability: mediumuk.sports.yahoo.com
Predicted England XI: Trafford; Alexander-Arnold, Guehi, Branthwaite, Hall; Anderson, Scott; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
2026-09-28reliability: lowrotowire.com
What could go wrongMeler averages over five yellows a game; a strict night from him beats the under.
Meler averages over five yellows a game; a strict night from him beats the under.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether Meler's international card rate differs from his club rate
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Czechia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Goals for – against | 1.7 – 1.1 | 3.1 – 0.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.56 – 1.30 | 2.40 – 0.94 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 6.1 – 4.3 | 6.1 – 4.3 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.2 – 2.1 | 1.2 – 1.3 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins · 2.5 goals per game.
- 2021-06-22 · Czechia 0–1 England
- 2008-08-20 · England 2–2 Czechia
Referee
Halil Umut Meler (Türkiye)
This season: 4.83 yellows and 26.5 fouls per game over 41 matches.
Last 10 matches: 5.40 yellows per game.
Absences
Czechia
D. Zima (injured: Unknown)
T. Holeš (injured: Knock Injury)
England
D. Burn (injured: Ankle Injury)
D. Henderson (injured: Foot Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
K. Mainoo (injured: Knock Injury)
M. Rashford (injured: Knock Injury)
T. Livramento (injured: Knock Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Czechia
8.26
Draw
4.97
England
1.34
Over 2.5 goals
1.66
Under 2.5 goals
2.19
Both score: yes
1.98
Both score: no
1.76
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.9%.
Last 10 games — Czechia
| 09-26 | H | Croatia | 1–2 | L |
| 06-25 | H | Mexico | 0–3 | L |
| 06-18 | H | South Africa | 1–1 | D |
| 06-12 | A | South Korea | 1–2 | L |
| 03-31 | H | Denmark | 1–1 | D |
| 03-26 | H | Ireland | 2–2 | D |
| 11-17 | H | Gibraltar | 6–0 | W |
| 10-12 | A | Faroe Islands | 1–2 | L |
| 10-09 | H | Croatia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-05 | A | Montenegro | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — England
| 09-26 | H | Spain | 2–3 | L |
| 07-18 | A | France | 6–4 | W |
| 07-15 | H | Argentina | 1–2 | L |
| 07-11 | A | Norway | 1–1 | D |
| 07-06 | A | Mexico | 3–2 | W |
| 07-01 | H | DR Congo | 2–1 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Panama | 2–0 | W |
| 06-23 | H | Ghana | 0–0 | D |
| 06-17 | H | Croatia | 4–2 | W |
| 11-16 | A | Albania | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
England are rightly big favourites in Prague against an injury-hit Czechia, but the price leaves no value; the only lean is a low card count.
Data (pack)
- Czechia: 2-4-4 in their last 10 and only one win in their last nine proper matches (the 6-0 was against Gibraltar). They created 1.0 or fewer chances by expected goals in 5 of their last 6. Home concessions come late: 1H 2 / 2H 8.
- England: 9-1-0 in their last 10 away games, scored first in all 9 decided ones, and average 3.1 goals away. But they lost 2-3 at home to Spain three days ago, and their expected goals against were 3.0 in that game.
- Cards: yellows per game for both sides are low. Czechia 0.7 for / 1.9 against; England 1.3 / 1.1. In each team's last 10, total bookings went over 4.5 only once. Referee Meler runs high: 4.83 yellows a game this season and 5.4 over his last 10 (mostly club games).
- Corners: roughly 10 a game for both teams, with Bzzoiro's over 9.5 at 40.6%. No clear edge.
News (web)
- Czechia, now under Santi Denia, are missing Zima, Jurasek, Rynes, Vlcek, Provod, Visinsky, Chory and Soucek. Karabec is a doubt.
- England have lost Palmer, Rice, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento. Konsa and O'Reilly missed training. Trafford starts in goal and Kane captains.
- Both sides are weakened, and Czechia arguably more so, especially in midfield.
Market
The market has England at 69.8%. I have them at 71%, which is not the 4-point gap needed, and short favourites have burned us before. Goals are close to the market: I make over 2.5 about 55% against the no-margin 56.9%.
The card under rests on both teams' low booking history and on the lesson that past card forecasts ran too high. It clears the 58% bar only narrowly because the referee points the other way, so confidence is low.
Uncertainties
- Two makeshift line-ups make the result harder to call.
- England's defence is patched up after conceding three to Spain.
- The referee's high card rate cuts against the only pick.
Analysed by opus with web research.