Latvia vs Cyprus prediction
Latvia
CyprusOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Lenient referee at under three yellows a game, and Latvia's home games are rarely card-heavy.
Why this pick
Lenient referee at under three yellows a game, and Latvia's home games are rarely card-heavy.
Referee Očenáš averages 2.86 yellows/g this season. Latvia's home games average 3.4 yellows in total, and Latvia-Armenia had only 1. Past forecasts have overshot cards by about 1. Expected total is about 3.6, which puts under 4.5 near 61%. Risk: Cyprus average 2.8 yellows away.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
No result bet. Small lean to under 4.5 cards: the referee averages under three yellows a game.
- 1Both sides lost their opening group game and have won just twice in ten.
- 2Latvia are missing several regulars, including Ikaunieks, Tobers and Varslavāns.
- 3Our result and goals numbers sit within a point or two of the bookmakers.
Go deeper
What happened0–0 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–0
Goals
0 (we expected 2.3)
Corners
15 (we expected 9.2)
Cards
6 (we expected 3.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia win | 35% | 36% | -1 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Cyprus win | 35% | 34% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 67% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 22% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.20
Expected corners
9.2
Expected cards
3.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 0-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (4)Latvia are missing Ikaunieks, Varslavāns, Grabovskis, Tobers, Sits, Jaunzems, Melnis and Birka through injury this window.
Latvia are missing Ikaunieks, Varslavāns, Grabovskis, Tobers, Sits, Jaunzems, Melnis and Birka through injury this window.
2026-09-27reliability: mediumsportsgambler.com
Cyprus centre-back Konstantinos Laifis is out injured; no new injuries from the Montenegro game.
2026-09-27reliability: mediumsportsgambler.com
After the 0-2 loss in Armenia, Nicolato may make changes: Vientiess, Uldriķis and Tonisevs could start.
2026-09-26reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Cyprus expected to keep Edwards, Pittas and Tzionis in attack, with Kyprianou anchoring midfield.
2026-09-26reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongA tense bottom-of-group scrap boils over and Cyprus's rough away habits push the count past four cards.
A tense bottom-of-group scrap boils over and Cyprus's rough away habits push the count past four cards.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting lineups
- Exact venue: sources differ between Ķeizarmežs and Skonto
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Latvia | Cyprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals for – against | 0.8 – 1.6 | 1.1 – 2.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.14 – 1.54 | 1.27 – 1.71 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 5.0 – 5.8 | 3.8 – 6.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.8 | 2.8 – 1.1 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 2.0 goals per game.
- 2024-03-21 · Cyprus 1–1 Latvia
Referee
Michal Očenáš (Slovakia)
This season: 2.86 yellows and 21.2 fouls per game over 7 matches.
Last 7 matches: 2.86 yellows per game.
Absences
Latvia
None reported
Cyprus
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Latvia
2.57
Draw
3.12
Cyprus
2.70
Over 2.5 goals
2.25
Under 2.5 goals
1.61
Both score: yes
1.90
Both score: no
1.81
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 8.0%.
Last 10 games — Latvia
| 09-25 | A | Armenia | 0–2 | L |
| 03-31 | H | Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | A | Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 11-16 | A | Serbia | 1–2 | L |
| 10-14 | H | England | 0–5 | L |
| 10-11 | H | Andorra | 2–2 | D |
| 09-09 | A | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 09-06 | H | Serbia | 0–1 | L |
| 06-10 | H | Albania | 1–1 | D |
| 03-24 | A | England | 0–3 | L |
Last 10 games — Cyprus
| 09-25 | A | Montenegro | 1–2 | L |
| 11-15 | H | Austria | 0–2 | L |
| 10-12 | A | San Marino | 4–0 | W |
| 10-09 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–2 | D |
| 09-09 | H | Romania | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | A | Austria | 0–1 | L |
| 06-10 | A | Romania | 0–2 | L |
| 03-24 | A | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–2 | L |
| 03-21 | H | San Marino | 2–0 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Romania | 1–4 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A near coin-flip between two struggling sides; the market has it right, and the only lean is a quiet game for cards under a lenient Slovak referee.
Data (pack). Both sides took 0.8 pts/g over their last 10. Latvia score little: 0.6 goals/g (xG 1.02), fail to score in 50% of games and are outshot 8.0 to 14.6. They are sturdier at home, with 30% clean sheets, and 50% of home games went under 2.5. Cyprus create more (1.3 goals/g, xG 1.6) but concede 2.1/g away. They lost 2-1 in Montenegro on matchday 1 after leading, and Latvia were well beaten 0-2 in Armenia (xG 0.2-1.1). The only head-to-head was 1-1. Corners: Latvia's home games average 10.8 in total and Cyprus's away games 10.6, but many of those came against much stronger opponents, and Bzzoiro gives over 8.5 only 56%, so there is no corners lean. Referee Očenáš averages 2.86 yellows/g (0.29 reds). Combined team yellow rates are about 4.5, but past forecasts have overshot cards by about 1, so I expect about 3.6 in total.
News (web). Latvia are missing Ikaunieks, Varslavāns, Tobers, Grabovskis, Jaunzems and others. After a flat display, Nicolato may bring in Uldriķis, Vientiess and Tonisevs. Cyprus reported no new knocks from Montenegro, but Laifis is out. Edwards, Pittas and Tzionis are expected to start in attack. These absences lean slightly towards Cyprus.
Market. No-margin prices are 36/30/34 with over 2.5 at 42%. I shade Latvia down by one point for their absences. That is nowhere near a 4-point edge, so no priced pick. Goals: Latvia's blunt attack against Cyprus's leaky away defence roughly cancel out, and I have over 2.5 at about 40%, in line with the market.
Cards lean. Under 4.5 rests on three things: the referee's low rate, Latvia's home games averaging 3.4 yellows in total, and the history of card over-prediction. Against it, Cyprus average 2.8 yellows away and both teams need points. I put it at about 61%, low confidence.
Uncertainties. Latvia's venue stats cover only 5 of 10 games. The stakes (both teams on 0 points) could make it tense. Lineups are still predicted, not confirmed.
Analysed by opus with web research.