Gibraltar vs Andorra prediction
Gibraltar
AndorraOur pick
Total corners
under 10.5 corners
Both teams win very few corners, and Andorra's games against similar sides had only four to six.
Why this pick
Both teams win very few corners, and Andorra's games against similar sides had only four to six.
Gibraltar win 1.2-1.8 corners per game and Andorra 0.5-1.0. Andorra's games against similar-level sides (Malta, Latvia, Albania) had only 4-6 corners in total. The Bzzoiro model independently gives 64% for under 10.5. Gibraltar's high corners-conceded rate came against Croatia, Czechia and similar sides, not a peer like Andorra. Rain and wind also favour a scrappy game.
- Actual
- 8
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean under 10.5 corners: neither side wins many corners and they rarely attack in numbers.
- 1Neither team has won in ten games; both failed to score in 70%.
- 2Gibraltar are unbeaten in three meetings with Andorra, all low-scoring.
- 3Match result and goals prices look fair; no edge of four points.
Go deeper
What happened0–0 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–0
Goals
0 (we expected 1.8)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.0)
Cards
5 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gibraltar win | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | +2 |
| Andorra win | 37% | 41% | -4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52% | 56% | -4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 29% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 15% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 35% | 38% | -3 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.95
Expected corners
8.0
Expected cards
4.3
Likeliest scores
0-0 (16%) · 0-1 (15%) · 1-0 (13%)
Late team news (4)Gibraltar have no absentees or doubts; predicted XI Banda; McClafferty, Lopes, Jolley, Valarino; Scanlon, Pozo, Stevens…
Gibraltar have no absentees or doubts; predicted XI Banda; McClafferty, Lopes, Jolley, Valarino; Scanlon, Pozo, Stevens; Bartolo, Mason, Gómez.
2026-09reliability: lowtips.gg
Andorra lost 1-2 at home to Malta on 24 Sept: Lopez scored in the 17th minute, Cardona and Teuma replied; Malta missed an 85th-minute penalty.
2026-09-24reliability: highvavel.com
Group D1 is a three-team group (Gibraltar, Malta, Andorra); this is Gibraltar's first match of the campaign, played at Europa Point, kicking off 16:00 UTC.
2026-09reliability: mediumgoal.com
Gibraltar are managed by Scott Wiseman; their last outing is reportedly a 0-0 with São Tomé and Príncipe (conflicts with the pack's 180-day rest).
2026-09reliability: lowgoal.com
What could go wrongAndorra, tired after Thursday's game, sit deep and Gibraltar pile up late corners chasing a goal.
Andorra, tired after Thursday's game, sit deep and Gibraltar pile up late corners chasing a goal.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed XIs for either side
- Andorra rotation plans after the Malta game three days earlier
- Whether Gibraltar played a friendly recently (conflicting reports)
- Referee confirmation beyond the pack
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Gibraltar | Andorra | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals for – against | 0.6 – 2.1 | 0.5 – 1.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.67 – 2.56 | 0.38 – 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 1.2 – 9.2 | 0.5 – 6.3 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.7 – 3.3 | 2.3 – 1.6 |
| Days since last match | 180 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 0.7 goals per game.
- 2024-09-04 · Gibraltar 1–0 Andorra
- 2022-11-19 · Gibraltar 1–0 Andorra
- 2021-06-07 · Andorra 0–0 Gibraltar
Referee
Genc Nuza (Kosovo)
This season: 2.40 yellows and 24.7 fouls per game over 5 matches.
Last 5 matches: 2.40 yellows per game.
Absences
Gibraltar
None reported
Andorra
I. Álvarez (injured: national_team)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Gibraltar
3.50
Draw
2.90
Andorra
2.30
Over 2.5 goals
3.25
Under 2.5 goals
1.33
Both score: yes
2.45
Both score: no
1.49
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.5%.
Last 10 games — Gibraltar
| 03-31 | A | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | H | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-17 | A | Czechia | 0–6 | L |
| 11-14 | H | Montenegro | 1–2 | L |
| 10-12 | A | Croatia | 0–3 | L |
| 09-08 | H | Faroe Islands | 0–1 | L |
| 06-09 | A | Faroe Islands | 1–2 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Croatia | 0–7 | L |
| 03-25 | H | Czechia | 0–4 | L |
| 03-22 | A | Montenegro | 1–3 | L |
Last 10 games — Andorra
| 09-24 | H | Malta | 1–2 | L |
| 11-13 | H | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 10-14 | H | Serbia | 1–3 | L |
| 10-11 | A | Latvia | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | A | England | 0–2 | L |
| 06-10 | A | Serbia | 0–3 | L |
| 06-07 | H | England | 0–1 | L |
| 03-24 | A | Albania | 0–3 | L |
| 03-21 | H | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-19 | A | Malta | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A tight, low-scoring game between two of Europe's weakest attacks; the market's lean to Andorra looks slightly too strong, but no price offers real value, so the only lean is under 10.5 corners.
Data (pack)
- Both sides are in dire form: Gibraltar 0-0-10 over their last 10 games with 0.3 goals scored per game, Andorra 0-2-8 with 0.4. Both failed to score in 70% of games. Almost all of those games came against much stronger opponents, which inflates the goals they conceded.
- Head-to-head: Gibraltar 2W 1D (1-0, 1-0, 0-0). That is 0.7 goals per game.
- At home against lower-ranked teams, Gibraltar have been competitive: W 1-0 v San Marino, D 2-2 v Liechtenstein, D 1-1 v Bulgaria.
- Andorra lost 1-2 at home to Malta three days ago. Their chance quality in that game was 0.8 v 3.2. Gibraltar have played nothing for 180 days (per the pack).
- Corners: Gibraltar win 1.2–1.8 per game, Andorra 0.5–1.0. Against similar-level opponents, Andorra's games had few corners: Malta 5 total, Latvia 4 and 6, Albania 4.
- Referee Nuza: 2.4 yellows per game, no reds or scored penalties in his last 5 games. Andorra foul a lot (15.4 per game).
News (web)
- Gibraltar reportedly have no absentees; a predicted XI is available from a tipster site (low reliability).
- Group D1 has only three teams. This is Gibraltar's first game of the campaign.
- Goal.com mentions a recent Gibraltar 0-0 with São Tomé and Príncipe. That conflicts with the pack's 180-day rest figure, so it is unverified.
- Rain and 19 km/h wind should further hold down the quality of play.
Market
- The market prices Andorra at 40.8%, the draw at 32.4% and Gibraltar at 26.8%.
- Given head-to-head results, home advantage and Andorra's short turnaround, I shade slightly toward Gibraltar and the draw: 29/34/37. That is still within 4 points of every price, so there is no priced pick.
- Under 2.5 goals: my 73% v 71% implied. Too thin.
- Corners: the Bzzoiro model gives 64% for under 10.5. Andorra's low corner totals against similar teams and both sides' tiny numbers of corners won support about 65%.
Uncertainties
- Gibraltar's and Andorra's venue stats cover only 5/10 and 4/10 games.
- Andorra's lineup after three days of rest is unknown.
- Gibraltar's corner figures conceded (9–10 per game) came against much stronger teams. If Andorra dominate the ball, that could still push the total up.
Analysed by opus with web research.