Scotland vs Switzerland prediction
Scotland
SwitzerlandOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Both teams rarely go past four cards combined, and the referee averages about four.
Why this pick
Both teams rarely go past four cards combined, and the referee averages about four.
Scotland's last 10 home games went over 4.5 yellows only 3 times, and Switzerland's last 10 away games only twice. Both sides collect few cards (Scotland 0.9 per home game, Swiss 1.2 away). The referee's ~4.1 cards per game sits near the line, so it is not a strong counter-signal. Historical calibration says card totals have been over-predicted by about one card.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean under 4.5 cards: both teams pick up few cards and the referee averages about four.
- 1Scotland create little at home; Switzerland's away games are usually tight and low-scoring.
- 2Switzerland are without captain Xhaka and Embolo but still beat North Macedonia 3-0.
- 3The result price matches our view, so there's no value in backing a winner.
Go deeper
What happened0–3 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–3
Goals
3 (we expected 2.5)
Corners
8 (we expected 9.2)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.4)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland win | 22% | 23% | -1 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Switzerland win | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 69% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 24% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.45
Expected corners
9.2
Expected cards
3.4
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 0-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%)
Late team news (5)Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo withdrawn from Switzerland squad over forged COVID-19 certificate legal issues.
Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo withdrawn from Switzerland squad over forged COVID-19 certificate legal issues.
2026-09reliability: highgoal.com
Scott McTominay absent for the campaign after heart surgery; new coach Pocognoli's first home game.
2026-09reliability: highgoal.com
Predicted Swiss XI: Kobel; Athekame, Elvedi, Akanji, Rodriguez; Jashari, Freuler; Sanches, Manzambi, Ndoye; Amdouni (scored twice vs North Macedonia).
2026-09-27reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Scotland XI: Gunn; Hendry, McKenna, Welsh; Hickey, Gilmour, Ferguson, Robertson; McGinn; McBurnie, Bowie. Possible Gannon-Doak recall.
2026-09reliability: mediumscotsman.com
Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean withdrew from Scotland squad before the Slovenia game.
2026-09reliability: mediumracingpost.com
What could go wrongA heated game in the rain with Scotland chasing late brings a flurry of yellow cards after the 70th minute.
A heated game in the rain with Scotland chasing late brings a flurry of yellow cards after the 70th minute.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups
- Referee card tendencies for these specific teams
- Corner and card bookmaker prices
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Scotland | Switzerland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 1.2 – 1.5 | 1.1 – 1.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.87 – 1.79 | 1.53 – 1.12 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Corners for – against | 4.0 – 6.0 | 4.9 – 3.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 0.9 – 2.8 | 1.2 – 2.3 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 1.5 goals per game.
- 2024-06-19 · Scotland 1–1 Switzerland
- 1996-06-18 · Scotland 1–0 Switzerland
Referee
Nenad Minaković (Serbia)
This season: 4.08 yellows and 26.9 fouls per game over 12 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Scotland
C. Adams (injured: Muscle Injury)
L. Shankland (injured: Hamstring Injury)
S. McTominay (injured: Heart Problems)
Switzerland
A. Amenda (injured: Calf Injury)
D. Zakaria (injured: Groin Injury)
L. Jaquez (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
S. Widmer (injured: Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Scotland
4.13
Draw
3.43
Switzerland
1.86
Over 2.5 goals
2.16
Under 2.5 goals
1.68
Both score: yes
1.95
Both score: no
1.78
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.1%.
Last 10 games — Scotland
| 09-26 | A | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
| 06-24 | H | Brazil | 0–3 | L |
| 06-19 | H | Morocco | 0–1 | L |
| 06-14 | A | Haiti | 1–0 | W |
| 11-18 | H | Denmark | 4–2 | W |
| 11-15 | A | Greece | 2–3 | L |
| 10-12 | H | Belarus | 2–1 | W |
| 10-09 | H | Greece | 3–1 | W |
| 09-08 | A | Belarus | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | A | Denmark | 0–0 | D |
Last 10 games — Switzerland
| 09-26 | A | North Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 07-12 | A | Argentina | 1–1 | D |
| 07-07 | H | Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 07-03 | H | Algeria | 2–0 | W |
| 06-24 | H | Canada | 2–1 | W |
| 06-18 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | W |
| 06-13 | A | Qatar | 1–1 | D |
| 11-18 | A | Kosovo | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Sweden | 4–1 | W |
| 10-13 | A | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Switzerland are rightful favourites even without Xhaka and Embolo, but the only lean worth taking is a low card count with a measured referee.
Data (pack). Scotland's last 10 home games: 1.3 pts/g, xG 0.87 for / 1.79 against, 50% failed to score, and 8 of their 12 home goals came after the 75th minute. They drew 0-0 in Slovenia (xG 1.9-0.5). Switzerland are unbeaten in 10 (5-5-0, xG 1.47-0.78). Their away games stay low: over 2.5 in only 20%, 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. They won 3-0 in North Macedonia on a 23-2 shot count. Corners: Scotland at home 4.0 for / 6.0 against, Swiss away 4.86 / 3.57. That blends to about 9.2, in line with Bzzoiro's 53.7% for over 8.5, so there is no corners edge. Cards: Scotland home yellows 0.9 for per game, Swiss away 1.2. Match yellow totals went over 4.5 in only 3 of Scotland's last 10 home games and 2 of Switzerland's last 10 away games. Referee Minaković averages 4.08 yellows and 0.08 reds per game (4.1 over his last 10), a little above the teams' combined rate. Following the calibration lesson, I expect about 3.4 cards.
News (web). Xhaka and Embolo were withdrawn over the forged COVID certificate case (Goal). Zakaria is injured. Amdouni scored twice as Embolo's replacement and is expected to keep his place (Sports Mole, 27 Sep). Scotland are under new coach Pocognoli, with McTominay out after heart surgery. Tierney and McLean withdrew earlier in the window. The forward line may change to McBurnie and Bowie.
Market. 1X2 at 22.6/27.2/50.2 is fair. Switzerland without their captain is already priced in, since they played that way on Friday. Under 2.5 at 56% looks slightly short of my ~58%, but that isn't enough edge, and recent priced picks have been poor. No priced pick.
Uncertainties. A new coach's home debut could bring a higher-tempo game from Scotland. Rain and wind may add fouls. Lineups are only predicted.
Analysed by opus with web research.