Iceland vs Estonia prediction
Iceland
EstoniaOur pick
Iceland team goals
Iceland over 1.5 goals
Iceland usually score twice at home, and Estonia concede two or more most away games.
Why this pick
Iceland usually score twice at home, and Estonia concede two or more most away games.
Iceland scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 home games (2.4 per game). Estonia conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 10 away games, allowing 2.42 in chances created against per game and 22 shots. Estonia's attack is also gutted (Sappinen, Anier, Kreida out), so Iceland should dominate the ball, as Arnar says they plan to. The market's 74% home win price implies roughly 1.9-2.0 Iceland goals.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean Iceland to score twice or more: Estonia concede often and are missing their main strikers.
- 1Iceland scored two or more in 8 of their last 10 home games.
- 2Estonia are without strikers Sappinen and Anier, plus Kreida, Shein and Gouram.
- 3The home win price is fair at about 75%, so there's no value there.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.7)
Corners
10 (we expected 8.8)
Cards
3 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland win | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | -1 |
| Estonia win | 8% | 9% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 79% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 36% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 44% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.70
Expected corners
8.8
Expected cards
4.0
Likeliest scores
2-0 (13%) · 1-0 (11%) · 2-1 (11%)
Late team news (7)Iceland first-choice goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson out for months after kidney surgery; Hákon Valdimarsson fit after back issue…
Iceland first-choice goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson out for months after kidney surgery; Hákon Valdimarsson fit after back issue and likely to start.
2026-09-25reliability: highfotbolti.net
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason withdrew with a broken foot; no replacement called.
2026-09-25reliability: highfotbolti.net
Arnar Gunnlaugsson plans high-tempo, possession-heavy approach with crosses to 'push Estonia down'.
2026-09-25reliability: highfotbolti.net
Iceland unavailable: Andri Fannar Baldursson, Sverrir Ingi Ingason, Kristian Hlynsson (injured).
2026-09-25reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Iceland squad includes Gylfi Sigurðsson and Aron Einar Gunnarsson; Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen back from injury.
2026-09-16reliability: highdv.is
Estonia missing Sappinen, Sinyavskiy, Kreida, Hussar, Paalberg, Varjund and Mihhailov through injury; Shein and Gouram not joining the squad.
2026-09reliability: highsport.err.ee
Estonia striker Henri Anier ruled out after injury on 19 September; Alex Tamm expected to lead the line.
2026-09-25reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongIceland's stand-in goalkeeper and rust after ten months off could leave them stuck on one goal.
Iceland's stand-in goalkeeper and rust after ten months off could leave them stuck on one goal.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Referee news beyond the pack
- Weather in Reykjavik at kickoff
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Iceland | Estonia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 2.4 – 1.9 | 1.1 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.54 – 1.80 | 0.60 – 2.87 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 2.3 – 4.3 | 1.8 – 9.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.8 | 2.3 – 1.1 |
| Days since last match | 314 | 317 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
4 meetings: 1 home wins, 3 draws, 0 away wins · 1.3 goals per game.
- 2023-01-08 · Estonia 1–1 Iceland
- 2019-01-15 · Iceland 0–0 Estonia
- 2015-03-31 · Estonia 1–1 Iceland
- 2014-06-04 · Iceland 1–0 Estonia
Referee
Milos Milanovic (Serbia)
This season: 3.50 yellows and 23.5 fouls per game over 6 matches.
Last 6 matches: 3.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Iceland
E. Ólafsson (injured: Unknown)
K. Hlynsson (injured: Unknown)
S. A. Magnússon (injured: Unknown)
Estonia
V. Sinyavskiy (injured: Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Iceland
1.26
Draw
5.62
Estonia
10.50
Over 2.5 goals
1.61
Under 2.5 goals
2.27
Both score: yes
2.11
Both score: no
1.66
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.7%.
Last 10 games — Iceland
| 11-16 | A | Ukraine | 0–2 | L |
| 11-13 | A | Azerbaijan | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | H | France | 2–2 | D |
| 10-10 | H | Ukraine | 3–5 | L |
| 09-09 | A | France | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Azerbaijan | 5–0 | W |
| 03-23 | H | Kosovo | 1–3 | L |
| 03-20 | A | Kosovo | 1–2 | L |
| 11-19 | A | Wales | 1–4 | L |
| 11-16 | A | Montenegro | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Estonia
| 11-13 | A | Norway | 1–4 | L |
| 10-14 | H | Moldova | 1–1 | D |
| 10-11 | H | Italy | 1–3 | L |
| 09-05 | A | Italy | 0–5 | L |
| 06-09 | H | Norway | 0–1 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Israel | 1–3 | L |
| 03-25 | A | Moldova | 3–2 | W |
| 03-22 | A | Israel | 1–2 | L |
| 11-19 | A | Slovakia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-16 | A | Azerbaijan | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 3 min read
Iceland should beat a badly weakened Estonia at Laugardalsvöllur. The price already reflects that, so the only lean is Iceland scoring at least twice.
Data (pack)
- Iceland at home, last 10: 2.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. They failed to score in none of them and scored 2+ in 8 of 10. They also leak goals, including 20 of their 38 conceded in the second half over the last 10 home games.
- Estonia, last 10: 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Chances created 0.7 against 2.42 allowed, 22 shots faced per game and 41% possession. They conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 10 away games. Their goals against come mostly after the break (18 of 22), which fits them tiring late.
- Head-to-head is tight (1W 3D 0L for Iceland), but three of those four games were January friendlies or old results.
- Corners: Estonia give up 7.25 per game (9.75 away). But Iceland won only 3 and 4 corners against Azerbaijan, a side of similar level, so the corner signal is mixed.
- Referee Milanovic averages 3.5 yellows a game with no reds this season. Both teams average about 2 yellows each, so no strong cards angle.
News (web)
- Iceland lose goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson to surgery. Hákon Valdimarsson is fit after a back problem and likely starts in goal. Sverrir Ingi Ingason, Hlynsson and Baldursson are out, and Bjarki Steinn broke his foot. Gylfi Sigurðsson, Aron Einar Gunnarsson and Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen are back in the squad. Coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson promises high tempo, lots of the ball and crosses.
- Estonia are badly depleted: no Sappinen or Anier (main strikers), and Kreida, Sinyavskiy, Hussar, Paalberg and Mihhailov are also out. Shein and Gouram declined the call-up. That cuts an already weak attack further.
Market
The bookmakers make it 74/17/9. I nudge the home win to 76% because of Estonia's absences, which is not enough for an edge. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 58.5%. I have it slightly lower (55%) because Estonia may not score at all, and I see no edge on both sides scoring either (42% vs 44%). The team total is not priced. Iceland at about 2.0 expected goals gives roughly a 60% chance of 2+, backed by two independent signals: Iceland's home scoring and Estonia's goals conceded. That is a modest lean only.
Uncertainties
Both teams haven't played for about 10 months, so fitness and sharpness are unknown. Iceland have a new goalkeeper. Match-stats coverage is thin (only 3 of 10 Iceland home games have corner/shot data).
Analysed by opus with web research.