Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction
Bulgaria
LuxembourgOur picks
Corners total
under 10.5 corners
Neither side wins many corners or dominates territory, so ten or fewer is the likely outcome.
Why this pick
Neither side wins many corners or dominates territory, so ten or fewer is the likely outcome.
Both teams win few corners (Bulgaria 2.2 for, Luxembourg 2.75 for). Neither is strong enough to pin the other back, and the third-party model gives about 69% for under 10.5. Expected total is around 8.6.
- Actual
- 9
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
63%Cards totalover 3.5 cardsWon
Combined team yellow rates are about 4.5-5 a game (Luxembourg 3.0 for; Bulgaria 2.1 for and 2.4 against). Head-to-head yellows were 11 and 6 in the matches with data. Referee van der Eijk averages 3.34 yellows a game this season and 3.1 over his last 10. A tight, even game makes tactical fouls likely.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
No result bet. Lean four or more cards and ten or fewer corners in a scrappy, even game.
- 1Their last three meetings ended 0-0, 1-0 and 0-0, all tight
- 2Bulgaria lack captain Despodov; Luxembourg lack Korac, Martins and Hall
- 3The market's 42% home win looks fair, so no result edge
Go deeper
What happened1–2 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–2
Goals
3 (we expected 2.1)
Corners
9 (we expected 8.6)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.7)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria win | 41% | 42% | -1 |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | +1 |
| Luxembourg win | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 65% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | -1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 21% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 46% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.00
Expected corners
8.6
Expected cards
4.7
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (10%)
Late team news (5)Bulgaria without captain Kiril Despodov and Filip Krastev through injury; Ivaylo Chochev also ruled out late.
Bulgaria without captain Kiril Despodov and Filip Krastev through injury; Ivaylo Chochev also ruled out late.
2026-09-25reliability: mediumsportal.bg
Ilia Gruev has recovered from injury and is available for Bulgaria; predicted 4-3-3 with Petkov ahead of Nikolov in attack.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Luxembourg defender Seid Korac out for the campaign with a cruciate ligament tear.
2026-09reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Luxembourg also missing Christopher Martins and Tim Hall (back); Mathias Olesen reportedly out too and Eldin Dzogovic withdrawn, though Sports Mole lists Olesen in the predicted XI.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsgambler.com
Jeff Strasser is now Luxembourg head coach; Aleksandar Dimitrov remains Bulgaria coach. Match at Hristo Botev stadium, Plovdiv.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongA calm, one-sided game with few fouls leaves the card count at three or fewer.
A calm, one-sided game with few fouls leaves the card count at three or fewer.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether Mathias Olesen is fit (conflicting reports)
- Referee's card tendencies in UEFA national-team matches
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Bulgaria | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals for – against | 1.4 – 2.0 | 0.9 – 1.3 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.51 – 1.58 | 0.65 – 1.99 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Corners for – against | 2.0 – 6.0 | 2.3 – 4.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.3 – 2.4 | 2.7 – 2.4 |
| Days since last match | 312 | 179 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
5 meetings: 2 home wins, 3 draws, 0 away wins · 2.0 goals per game.
- 2024-11-15 · Luxembourg 0–1 Bulgaria
- 2024-10-12 · Bulgaria 0–0 Luxembourg
- 2022-11-20 · Luxembourg 0–0 Bulgaria
- 2017-10-10 · Luxembourg 1–1 Bulgaria
- 2016-09-06 · Bulgaria 4–3 Luxembourg
Referee
Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)
This season: 3.34 yellows and 21.8 fouls per game over 38 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Bulgaria
None reported
Luxembourg
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Bulgaria
2.22
Draw
3.10
Luxembourg
3.29
Over 2.5 goals
2.41
Under 2.5 goals
1.55
Both score: yes
2.00
Both score: no
1.73
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.7%.
Last 10 games — Bulgaria
| 11-18 | H | Georgia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-15 | A | Türkiye | 0–2 | L |
| 10-14 | A | Spain | 0–4 | L |
| 10-11 | H | Türkiye | 1–6 | L |
| 09-07 | A | Georgia | 0–3 | L |
| 09-04 | H | Spain | 0–3 | L |
| 03-23 | A | Ireland | 1–2 | L |
| 03-20 | H | Ireland | 1–2 | L |
| 11-18 | H | Belarus | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | A | Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Luxembourg
| 03-31 | H | Malta | 3–0 | W |
| 03-26 | A | Malta | 2–0 | W |
| 11-17 | A | Northern Ireland | 0–1 | L |
| 11-14 | H | Germany | 0–2 | L |
| 10-13 | A | Slovakia | 0–2 | L |
| 10-10 | A | Germany | 0–4 | L |
| 09-07 | H | Slovakia | 0–1 | L |
| 09-04 | H | Northern Ireland | 1–3 | L |
| 11-18 | H | Northern Ireland | 2–2 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Bulgaria | 0–1 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A tight, low-scoring match between two weak sides both missing key players; stay close to the market, with a lean to four or more cards and a modest corner count.
Data (pack)
- Both teams average 0.7 points a game over their last 10. Bulgaria's World Cup qualifying group was brutal (outscored 3-19 in six games, xG against 2.1 a game). They did beat Georgia 2-1 at home last time out. Luxembourg's two most recent wins came against Malta (2-0 and 3-0).
- Recent head-to-head games were very low-scoring: 0-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Luxembourg away: over 2.5 goals in only 20% of games and both teams scored in only 20%.
- Neither side wins many corners. Bulgaria average 2.2 corners for, but that came against top sides. Luxembourg average 2.75 for and 4.6 against. Bzzoiro gives under 10.5 corners about 69%.
- Cards: Luxembourg get 3.0 yellows a game and Bulgaria 2.1 plus 2.4 against. Yellows in the head-to-head games: 11 (6-5) and 6 (3-3). Referee van der Eijk averages 3.34 yellows this season and 3.1 over his last 10.
- Both teams come in after long breaks, so they may be rusty.
News (web)
- Bulgaria are without captain Kiril Despodov, Filip Krastev and Ivaylo Chochev. Ilia Gruev is back.
- Luxembourg are without Seid Korac (cruciate ligament), Christopher Martins and Tim Hall. Mathias Olesen is reported out by some outlets but is in Sports Mole's predicted XI. Jeff Strasser is the new coach.
- The game is in Plovdiv, with rain forecast.
Market
The market has 41.8/30.0/28.2 and over 2.5 goals at 39%. The absences roughly cancel out, so I stay on the market: 41/31/28, over 2.5 goals 38%. No priced market clears the 4-point bar.
Picks
- Over 3.5 cards (about 64%): the teams' combined rate is roughly 4.5–5 yellows, the head-to-head games were feisty, and the referee averages above 3. It's a low-margin group game where fouls to stop counters are likely.
- Under 10.5 corners (about 68%): both teams win few corners, and neither is likely to dominate territory.
Uncertainties
- Stats coverage is thin: the venue splits have stats for only 3–4 games.
- This is the first game after long breaks, under a new Luxembourg coach.
- We don't know how this referee handles UEFA Nations League games specifically.
Analysed by opus with web research.