Georgia vs Northern Ireland prediction
Georgia
Northern IrelandOur pick
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee averages 4.7 yellows a game and both teams' matches usually produce four or more cards.
Why this pick
Referee averages 4.7 yellows a game and both teams' matches usually produce four or more cards.
The referee listed in the pack averages 4.7 yellows and 25.9 fouls per game, both this season and over his last 10. Georgia's games average about 4.2 total yellows and Northern Ireland's about 4.6, with Northern Ireland committing 13.3 fouls per game. That gives an expected total of about 4.3 and roughly 60% for 4 or more. The downsides: a low-stakes opener, Georgia's low recent card counts, and a referee not confirmed by the web sources.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean over 3.5 cards: the listed referee averages 4.7 yellows a game; the result prices look fair.
- 1Georgia at full strength; Northern Ireland without Bradley, McCann and Lyons.
- 2Northern Ireland away: one win in ten, 0.9 goals scored per game.
- 3Our result and goals numbers match the bookmaker's, so no value there.
Go deeper
What happened0–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–1
Goals
1 (we expected 2.5)
Corners
10 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia win | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Northern Ireland win | 21% | 22% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | -1 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.00
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
4.3
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 2-1 (10%)
Late team news (5)Georgia's squad is largely fit and settled; Kvaratskhelia expected behind Mikautadze.
Georgia's squad is largely fit and settled; Kvaratskhelia expected behind Mikautadze. Left-back Irakli Azarovi withdrew injured; 18-year-old Saba Kharebashvili called up and may start at left wing-back; Lasha Dvali tipped to return.
2026-09-25reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
Northern Ireland without Conor Bradley (knee, long-term), Alistair McCann (hamstring) and Brad Lyons (knee); Jamie McDonnell also withdrew injured.
2026-09reliability: highnewsletter.co.uk
Northern Ireland named a 28-man, very young squad (average age 24, four teenagers) for four games in 11 days; this is the first game, and the fourth is the return fixture against Georgia on 5 October.
2026-09-21reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
The game is expected to be played in a near-empty Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena.
2026-09-21reliability: lowsports.yahoo.com
ESPN lists the referee as TBC and Georgia with no major injuries; expects a defensive Northern Ireland setup with Dion Charles up front.
2026-09-25reliability: mediumespn.com
What could go wrongA quiet, one-sided game in a low-stakes opener; ESPN still lists the referee as unconfirmed.
A quiet, one-sided game in a low-stakes opener; ESPN still lists the referee as unconfirmed.
What it couldn't verify
- Referee appointment not independently confirmed (ESPN says TBC)
- Reason for a near-empty stadium not verified
- Confirmed starting XIs
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Georgia | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals for – against | 2.1 – 1.2 | 0.9 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.44 – 1.44 | 0.86 – 0.94 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 4.0 – 6.2 | 3.8 – 5.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.0 – 3.0 | 2.2 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 311 | 183 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Referee
Orel Grinfeeld (Israel)
This season: 4.70 yellows and 25.9 fouls per game over 10 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Georgia
A. Mekvabishvili (injured: national_team)
Northern Ireland
A. McCann (injured: Hamstring Injury)
B. Lyons (injured: Knee Injury)
C. Bradley (injured: Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Georgia
1.83
Draw
3.45
Northern Ireland
4.37
Over 2.5 goals
2.12
Under 2.5 goals
1.71
Both score: yes
1.94
Both score: no
1.79
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.5%.
Last 10 games — Georgia
| 11-18 | A | Bulgaria | 1–2 | L |
| 11-15 | H | Spain | 0–4 | L |
| 10-14 | A | Türkiye | 1–4 | L |
| 10-11 | A | Spain | 0–2 | L |
| 09-07 | H | Bulgaria | 3–0 | W |
| 09-04 | H | Türkiye | 2–3 | L |
| 03-23 | H | Armenia | 6–1 | W |
| 03-20 | A | Armenia | 3–0 | W |
| 11-19 | A | Czechia | 1–2 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Ukraine | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Northern Ireland
| 03-26 | A | Italy | 0–2 | L |
| 11-17 | H | Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Slovakia | 0–1 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Germany | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | H | Slovakia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-07 | A | Germany | 1–3 | L |
| 09-04 | A | Luxembourg | 3–1 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Luxembourg | 2–2 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Belarus | 2–0 | W |
| 10-15 | H | Bulgaria | 5–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Georgia are rightly favoured at home with Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze fit against a young Northern Ireland side missing Bradley, but the result price looks fair; the only lean is on cards.
Data (pack). Georgia's last 10 overall (3-1-6) are skewed by Spain and Türkiye. At home they are 5-2-3, with 2.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, and they beat Bulgaria 3-0 and Armenia 6-1. Northern Ireland are decent overall (5-1-4, 1.0 conceded per game) but poor away: 1-3-6, 0.9 scored, failing to score in half those games and scoring first in only 2 of 8. Northern Ireland concede late (6 of 10 goals after the hour overall). Georgia concede early, but mostly against elite opponents. The pack's referee, Orel Grinfeeld, averages 4.7 yellows and 25.9 fouls per game (season and last 10). Georgia's games average about 4.2 yellows in total and Northern Ireland's about 4.6. Both teams have been idle for months: 311 and 183 days since their last games.
News (web). Georgia look settled and fit, with Kvaratskhelia behind Mikautadze. Left-back Azarovi withdrew and 18-year-old Kharebashvili came in. Northern Ireland are without Bradley (out long-term), McCann, Lyons and McDonnell. The squad is very young (average age 24) and plays four games in 11 days; this is game one, so rotation is unlikely. One report mentions a near-empty stadium, which may weaken home advantage slightly. ESPN lists the referee as TBC, so the pack's appointment is not confirmed by an independent source.
Market. The no-margin prices are 51.3/27.2/21.5, and the Bzzoiro model is almost identical. The news slightly favours Georgia, but not by 4 points, so I stay at 52/27/21. Goals: about 1.5 v 1.0 expected. Over 2.5 at about 45% matches the market, and both sides scoring at 47% is fair. No priced edge.
Cards lean. A referee averaging 4.7 plus combined team game averages of about 4.2 to 4.6 gives a mean near 4.3. Allowing for spread, that puts over 3.5 cards at about 60%. Georgia's recent card counts were low (1 total against Spain, 2 against Türkiye away), and this is a low-stakes opener. Low confidence.
Uncertainties. Long layoffs make form noisy, the referee is unconfirmed, and the effect of the near-empty stadium is unclear.
Analysed by opus with web research.