Liechtenstein vs Lithuania prediction
Liechtenstein
LithuaniaOur pick
Goals over/under 2.5
under 2.5 goals
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Why this pick
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Liechtenstein scored 1 goal in 10 games (0.31 chances-created value per game), and only 3 of their last 10 home games had 3+ goals. Every home loss to comparable sides ended 0-2. Lithuania average 0.4 away goals and 4 of their last 10 away games went over 2.5. With about 2.0 expected total goals, a Poisson model gives about 64% for under 2.5 against 54.9% no-margin implied. Rain and a key midfield absence for Lithuania also point to a low total.
- Odds
- 1.71
- Odds imply
- 54.9%
- Actual
- 2
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
In short
Back under 2.5 goals: Liechtenstein almost never score and Lithuania's attack is weak.
- 1Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last ten games.
- 2Lithuania average 0.7 goals a game and lost midfielder Magdušauskas to injury.
- 3We give under 2.5 goals 64%; the price implies about 55%.
Go deeper
What happened0–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–2
Goals
2 (we expected 2.0)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.2)
Cards
2 (we expected 4.4)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 2.5 goals — we say 36%, bookmakers 45%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liechtenstein win | 9% | 8% | +1 |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Lithuania win | 69% | 73% | -4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | 69% | -8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 45% | -9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 25% | -9 |
| Both teams score | 31% | 34% | -3 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.45 – 1.55
Expected corners
8.2
Expected cards
4.4
Likeliest scores
0-1 (18%) · 0-2 (15%) · 1-1 (10%)
Late team news (5)Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June…
Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June; predicted XI named.
2026-09-22reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Liechtenstein lost June 2026 friendlies to Andorra and Cyprus; one win in four fixtures this year (friendlies not in the pack).
2026-09-22reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Lithuania: no fresh injuries per preview; Kucys and Gineitis available; lost Baltic Cup final 1-0 to Estonia.
2026-09-22reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas is out injured; coach Jankauskas regrets the loss and says Lithuania must prove their favourite status.
2026-09-23reliability: highregionuzinios.lt
Lithuania's 26-man squad recalls Slivka, Dolžnikov, Steponavičius, Ruzgis, Kazukolovas, Gertmonas and Širvys; Lithuania host Azerbaijan on 27 September.
2026-09reliability: highlrt.lt
What could go wrongLiechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Liechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Liechtenstein injury news from a club/federation source
- Pitch condition after rain
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Liechtenstein | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals for – against | 0.1 – 2.3 | 0.4 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.43 – 2.16 | 0.86 – 1.45 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 0.8 – 7.5 | 1.8 – 5.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.7 – 1.7 | 2.6 – 2.1 |
| Days since last match | 310 | 311 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins · 2.0 goals per game.
- 2013-09-10 · Lithuania 2–0 Liechtenstein
- 2012-10-12 · Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
Referee
Ante Čulina (Croatia)
This season: 4.50 yellows and 25.0 fouls per game over 2 matches.
Last 2 matches: 4.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Liechtenstein
None reported
Lithuania
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Liechtenstein
11.40
Draw
4.86
Lithuania
1.29
Over 2.5 goals
2.08
Under 2.5 goals
1.71
Both score: yes
2.73
Both score: no
1.41
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.9%.
Last 10 games — Liechtenstein
| 11-18 | A | Belgium | 0–7 | L |
| 11-15 | H | Wales | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | A | Kazakhstan | 0–4 | L |
| 09-07 | A | North Macedonia | 0–5 | L |
| 09-04 | H | Belgium | 0–6 | L |
| 06-06 | A | Wales | 0–3 | L |
| 03-25 | H | Kazakhstan | 0–2 | L |
| 03-22 | H | North Macedonia | 0–3 | L |
| 11-18 | H | San Marino | 1–3 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Gibraltar | 0–0 | D |
Last 10 games — Lithuania
| 11-17 | A | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 10-12 | H | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 10-09 | A | Finland | 1–2 | L |
| 09-07 | H | Netherlands | 2–3 | L |
| 09-04 | H | Malta | 1–1 | D |
| 06-07 | A | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | H | Finland | 2–2 | D |
| 03-21 | A | Poland | 0–1 | L |
| 11-18 | A | Kosovo | 0–1 | L |
| 11-15 | A | Cyprus | 1–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Lithuania should beat Liechtenstein, but two sides that rarely score in a rainy, low-event opener point to under 2.5 goals.
Data (pack). Liechtenstein are 0-1-9 over their last 10 games with 0.1 goals scored per game, and they failed to score in 90% of them. Their chances created add up to 0.31 a game, from 2.4 shots. At home they concede 2.3 a game, but most of that came against Belgium. Against sides at Lithuania's level (Andorra, Latvia, Moldova, Kazakhstan) they lost 0-2 each time. Only 3 of their last 10 home games went over 2.5 goals. Lithuania are 0-3-7 with 0.7 goals a game, 0.4 away, and failed to score in 60% of away games. Four of their last ten away games went over 2.5. Their chances created are about 0.7-0.9 a game, though that was mostly against stronger opponents. The only previous meetings were two 2-0 Lithuania wins. Referee Čulina: 4.5 yellows a game on a tiny sample. Rain and wind are forecast.
News (web). Sports Mole (22 Sep) says both sides have no injuries and names probable line-ups. Liechtenstein have Büchel back in goal and captain Hasler back; the pack's 310-day rest ignores June friendlies (losses to Andorra and Cyprus). Lithuania are without midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas, who was injured before camp. Coach Jankauskas says the team must play like favourites. Lithuania face Azerbaijan three days later.
Market. The match-result prices (Lithuania 72.5%) look fair, so I stay close. I make it roughly 1-0.5 per cent adjustments: 9/22/69, giving a little more to the draw because Lithuania finish their chances poorly. On goals, a model with Liechtenstein expected to score about 0.45 and Lithuania about 1.55 gives roughly 2.0 total goals and about 35% for over 2.5. The market has 45%. The third-party model credits Liechtenstein with nearly one goal, which their record doesn't support. That gap is the edge on under 2.5. Both sides scoring (31% vs 34%) and corners (about 8 expected, close to the third-party line) don't clear the bars.
Uncertainties. Liechtenstein's defence has fallen apart in the second half before (0-7, 0-6 and 0-5 against better teams). Lithuania may play with extra ambition against the weakest side in the group. Both teams' September form is unknown.
Analysed by opus with web research.