Andorra vs Malta prediction
Andorra
MaltaOur picks
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
Why this pick
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
The teams' yellow rates add up to about 4.7 (Andorra 2.3 per home game, Malta 2.4 per away game), Andorra foul 15 times per game at home, and referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows over his last 10 games. The last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows plus a red. I expect about 4.6 cards.
- Actual
- 7
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
60%Total cornersunder 9.5 cornersWon
Andorra's corner totals are 7.1–7.5 per game and Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win only about 1 corner per game, and neither side is strong enough to keep up sustained pressure. The Bzzoiro model also leans under 9.5 (55%). I expect about 7.8 corners.
- Actual
- 5
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back over 3.5 cards and under 9.5 corners; the result and goals prices look fair.
- 1Andorra failed to score in 8 of their last 10 games.
- 2Referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows per game over his last 10.
- 3Our result and goals numbers match the bookmakers', so no value there.
Go deeper
What happened1–2 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–2
Goals
3 (we expected 2.0)
Corners
5 (we expected 7.8)
Cards
7 (we expected 4.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 25% | 26% | -1 |
| Draw | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Malta win | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | 58% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 16% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 39% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 25% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.10
Expected corners
7.8
Expected cards
4.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (13%) · 0-1 (13%) · 0-0 (12%)
Late team news (4)Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
2026-09-21reliability: highmaltafootball.com
James Carragher is left out of the Malta squad; 16-year-old Jayden Roe got a first call-up but did not travel.
2026-09-22reliability: highthemalteseherald.com
Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia; Sports Mole also lists Max Llovera as absent, but a Sportskeeda preview names him among five new call-ups (with de Pablos, C. García, È. Vales and Rosas). Marc Vales captains.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
June friendlies missing from the pack: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongA quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
A quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Current status of Andorra injury I. Álvarez
- Whether Max Llovera is in Andorra's squad (sources conflict)
- Bookmaker prices for cards and corners
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Andorra | Malta | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 0.5 – 1.4 | 0.8 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.42 – 1.87 | 0.72 – 2.54 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 1.0 – 6.5 | 2.8 – 5.4 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.3 – 2.3 | 2.4 – 2.1 |
| Days since last match | 315 | 177 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
4 meetings: 0 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins · 1.3 goals per game.
- 2024-11-19 · Malta 0–0 Andorra
- 2024-09-10 · Andorra 0–1 Malta
- 2020-11-14 · Malta 3–1 Andorra
- 2020-10-10 · Andorra 0–0 Malta
Referee
Joey Kooij (Netherlands)
This season: 3.24 yellows and 24.1 fouls per game over 33 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Andorra
I. Álvarez (injured: national_team)
Malta
J. Mbong (suspended: red_card_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Andorra
3.60
Draw
2.70
Malta
2.40
Over 2.5 goals
3.00
Under 2.5 goals
1.36
Both score: yes
2.38
Both score: no
1.53
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.5%.
Last 10 games — Andorra
| 11-13 | H | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 10-14 | H | Serbia | 1–3 | L |
| 10-11 | A | Latvia | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | A | England | 0–2 | L |
| 06-10 | A | Serbia | 0–3 | L |
| 06-07 | H | England | 0–1 | L |
| 03-24 | A | Albania | 0–3 | L |
| 03-21 | H | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-19 | A | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 11-16 | H | Moldova | 0–1 | L |
Last 10 games — Malta
| 03-31 | A | Luxembourg | 0–3 | L |
| 03-26 | H | Luxembourg | 0–2 | L |
| 11-17 | H | Poland | 2–3 | L |
| 11-14 | A | Finland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-09 | H | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 09-04 | A | Lithuania | 1–1 | D |
| 06-10 | A | Netherlands | 0–8 | L |
| 06-07 | H | Lithuania | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | A | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 03-21 | H | Finland | 0–1 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A tight, low-scoring match between two of Europe's weakest attacks, leaning slightly to Malta; the result prices look fair, so the only value is in cards and corners.
Data (pack). Andorra: 0.3 goals scored per game in the last 10 and failed to score in 80%. At home they average 0.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.87 against, with 26% possession. Malta: 0.4 goals per game in all competitions and 0.8 away, but they concede 2.0–2.4. Both sides do most of their scoring late. The last four meetings produced 1.2 goals per game, including two 0-0s. Malta won 1-0 in Andorra in 2024. Card rates are fairly high: Andorra 2.3 yellows per game at home, Malta 2.4 away, and Andorra commit 15 fouls per game at home. Referee Kooij averages 3.24 yellows per game this season and 4.1 over his last 10, with 0.3 reds per game. Corners: Andorra's totals are 7.1–7.5 per game, Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win very few corners (0.75–1.0 per game).
News (web). Malta lose Joseph Mbong (suspended) and Aleandro Garzia (injured). James Carragher is not in the squad, and Ryan Camenzuli returns. Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia. Max Llovera is also missing per Sports Mole, although a Sportskeeda preview lists him among the new call-ups, so that is conflicting. Marc Vales captains. The pack leaves out June friendlies: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia. Nothing here changes the picture much.
Market. The 1X2 prices (26/35/39) and under 2.5 at 69% match the data. I stay close to the market: home 25, draw 35, away 40, over 2.5 at 30%. No priced market clears the 4-point bar.
Unpriced leans.
- Cards: the team rates add up to about 4.7 yellows, the referee's recent 4.1 per game backs that up, and the last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows. I expect about 4.6 cards, which gives over 3.5 roughly 61%.
- Corners: both teams' totals sit below 8.5, and Andorra barely win any. I expect about 7.8. The Bzzoiro model gives under 9.5 about 55%, and my blend is 60%.
Uncertainties. The pack's windows reach back into last season, and neither side has played a competitive game for months. Kooij's recent numbers come from higher-level matches. A dead 0-0 could keep both cards and fouls low.
Analysed by opus with web research.