Kosovo vs Ireland prediction
Kosovo
IrelandOur pick
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Why this pick
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Referee Visser averages 4.93 yellows per game this season (4.3 over his last 10) plus 0.21 reds. Ireland games reached 4+ yellows in 8 of the last 10, Kosovo games in 6 of 10, and Ireland collect 3.2 yellows per game themselves. An evenly matched competitive opener with away fouling at 14.7 per game supports a total of around 4.6.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back over 3.5 cards: Ireland pick up plenty of bookings and the referee averages nearly five a game.
- 1Kosovo have lost just two of their last ten home games.
- 2Both squads are short of players, Ireland missing Collins, Coleman, Ferguson and Cullen.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair; the only angle is cards.
Go deeper
What happened1–0 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–0
Goals
1 (we expected 2.4)
Corners
1 (we expected 8.8)
Cards
2 (we expected 4.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo win | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Ireland win | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 67% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 21% | -1 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 15% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.05
Expected corners
8.8
Expected cards
4.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (9%)
Late team news (7)Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
2026-09-23reliability: mediumlastwordonsports.com
Ireland also without Coleman, Evan Ferguson, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor, Mikey Johnston, Oisin McEntee; Dara O'Shea to captain; Parrott has 6 goals in last 6 caps.
2026-09reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
Killian Phillips called up after Jamie McGrath and Harvey Vale withdrew injured.
2026-09-21reliability: highrte.ie
RTÉ forecasts clear conditions, around 15°C, no rain in Pristina.
2026-09-22reliability: mediumrte.ie
Muriqi named new Kosovo captain after Amir Rrahman retired from the national team; Vojvoda vice-captain.
2026-09reliability: highkoha.net
Kosovo without Florent Muslija and Elvis Rexhbeçaj (injured); Korenica replaced injured Donat Rrudhani.
2026-09reliability: mediumbalkanweb.com
Avdullahu and Fisnik Asllani expected to start for Kosovo.
2026-09reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongA cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
A cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Exact status of the long Ireland injury list (from aggregator summaries)
- Weather: pack says rain, RTÉ says clear
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Kosovo | Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 1.7 – 0.9 | 1.2 – 1.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.89 – 1.06 | 1.17 – 1.91 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 2.3 – 3.0 | 3.3 – 6.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.4 – 2.3 | 2.6 – 2.2 |
| Days since last match | 177 | 182 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Referee
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
This season: 4.93 yellows and 24.1 fouls per game over 43 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.30 yellows per game.
Absences
Kosovo
A. Saipi (injured: national_team)
D. Rrudhani (injured: Knock Injury)
K. Hajrizi (injured: Muscle Injury)
M. Rashica (injured: Thigh Injury)
Ireland
M. Melia (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. Collins (injured: Calf Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Kosovo
2.41
Draw
3.08
Ireland
3.06
Over 2.5 goals
2.27
Under 2.5 goals
1.61
Both score: yes
1.91
Both score: no
1.81
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.6%.
Last 10 games — Kosovo
| 03-31 | H | Türkiye | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | A | Slovakia | 4–3 | W |
| 11-18 | H | Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | A | Slovenia | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | A | Sweden | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | H | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | H | Sweden | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | A | Switzerland | 0–4 | L |
| 03-23 | A | Iceland | 3–1 | W |
| 03-20 | H | Iceland | 2–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Ireland
| 03-26 | A | Czechia | 2–2 | D |
| 11-16 | A | Hungary | 3–2 | W |
| 11-13 | H | Portugal | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | H | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-11 | A | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | A | Armenia | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | H | Hungary | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | H | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 03-20 | A | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 11-17 | A | England | 0–5 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Kosovo slight favourites in a tight, low-scoring opener; no edge on the result, but a card-happy Belgian referee and two booking-prone sides point to over 3.5 cards.
Data (pack). Kosovo at home: 6-2-2, 1.7 scored / 0.9 conceded, but underlying chances are thin (0.89 created vs 1.06 conceded per game), 40% possession, and they rarely win corners (2.25 per game at home, small sample). Ireland away: 3-2-5, 1.2 / 1.9, 70% both sides scoring, and they concede heavily after half-time (13 of 19 away goals conceded in the second half). No head-to-head. Both teams come in after six months without a game.
Cards: Kosovo games had 4+ yellows in 6 of their last 10; Ireland games in 8 of 10 (Ireland get 3.2 yellows per game themselves). Referee Visser: 4.93 yellows and 0.21 reds per game this season, 4.3 over his last 10. Expected total ≈4.6.
News (web). Ireland are badly depleted: Collins, Coleman, Ferguson, Cullen, Taylor, Johnston and McEntee are reported out, McGrath and Vale withdrew, Phillips called up late, O'Shea captains. Parrott is in form (6 in 6). Kosovo are missing Rrudhani, Muslija, Rexhbeçaj, plus Hajrizi/Rashica/Saipi from the pack; Rrahman has retired from international football; Muriqi is the new captain and scoring freely for Fenerbahçe. RTÉ expects clear weather, which contradicts the pack's rain forecast.
Market. 38.9/30.4/30.6. Both sides are weakened, and Ireland's losses in defence roughly cancel out Kosovo's missing midfielders. I nudge Kosovo up about 1 point for home form and Ireland's defensive absences, which is nowhere near the 4-point bar. Over 2.5 at 41.5% fits Kosovo's low-event home profile; I have it at 40%. No priced edge.
Pick. Over 3.5 cards is backed by both teams' booking rates and the referee's rate, which are independent signals. I put it at about 63%.
Uncertainties. Rust after a long break, the first League B game for Kosovo, and full lineups not yet confirmed. The referee's softer recent run (4.3) is the main danger to the cards pick.
Analysed by opus with web research.