SSC Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Our pick
Lazio team goals
Lazio over 0.5 goals
Lazio scored in all of their last 10 games; Napoli's patched-up defence hasn't kept a clean sheet in six.
Why this pick
Lazio scored in all of their last 10 games; Napoli's patched-up defence hasn't kept a clean sheet in six.
Lazio scored in all of their last 10 games and in 8 of their last 10 away games. Napoli have kept no clean sheet in six and conceded 1.8 goals a game over 10. They are without Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno and the suspended Marianucci, plus Lobotka shielding the defence. My model gives Lazio about 1.4 expected goals, which means roughly a 75% chance they score.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
We back Lazio to score: they scored in all of their last 10 games, and Napoli's defence is badly depleted.
- 1Lazio have scored in all of their last 10 games and won nine.
- 2Napoli are missing Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Lobotka and suspended Marianucci.
- 3Match result and goals prices look fair; no priced bet has an edge.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
12 (we expected 9.3)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.2)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 38% | 42% | -4 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| Lazio win | 36% | 32% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 34% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 22% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.40
Expected corners
9.3
Expected cards
4.2
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%) · 2-1 (9%)
Late team news (6)Di Lorenzo will miss the Lazio game with a left adductor strain.
Di Lorenzo will miss the Lazio game with a left adductor strain.
2026-11reliability: highfootball-italia.net
Buongiorno, Neres, Favasuli, Santos, Spinazzola, Badiashile and Lobotka are out. Olivera is doubtful. Marianucci is banned for one match after his red card at Juventus.
2026-11-06reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Allegri is under pressure after crisis talks with De Laurentiis and the coaching staff.
2026-11-06reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Napoli XI (3-5-2): Meret; Beukema, Rrahmani, Marin; Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay, Vergara; Giovane, Hojlund. De Bruyne's fitness still needs assessing.
2026-11-07reliability: mediumthehardtackle.com
Lazio are missing only Zaccagni (thigh) and Guðmundsson (shoulder). Rovella and Marusic are back in full training.
2026-11-06reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Lazio XI (4-3-3): Mandas; Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Pinamonti, Noslin. Isaksen has scored four goals in his last five appearances.
2026-11-07reliability: mediumthehardtackle.com
What could go wrongLazio protect a lead or sit deep, and the Maradona crowd lifts Napoli to a rare clean sheet.
Lazio protect a lead or sit deep, and the Maradona crowd lifts Napoli to a rare clean sheet.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether De Bruyne starts
- Referee-specific penalty and card tendencies beyond the pack
The dataSSC NapoliLWDLWLazioWWWWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| SSC Napoli | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 10/20 | 1/20 |
| Points (played) | 14 (10) | 28 (10) |
| Form | LWDLW | WWWWW |
| Points per game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals for – against | 1.9 – 1.4 | 1.9 – 0.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.64 – 1.53 | 1.47 – 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 5.1 – 4.2 | 4.2 – 5.9 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.1 – 1.6 | 2.1 – 2.6 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 7 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
93 meetings: 41 home wins, 25 draws, 27 away wins · 2.7 goals per game.
- 2026-04-18 · SSC Napoli 0–2 Lazio
- 2026-01-04 · Lazio 0–2 SSC Napoli
- 2025-02-15 · Lazio 2–2 SSC Napoli
- 2024-12-08 · SSC Napoli 0–1 Lazio
- 2024-12-05 · Lazio 3–1 SSC Napoli
Referee
Luca Pairetto (Italy)
This season: 3.31 yellows and 24.4 fouls per game over 36 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.40 yellows per game.
Absences
SSC Napoli
A. Buongiorno (injured: Meniscus Injury)
A. Santos (injured: Thigh Injury)
B. Badiashile (injured: Muscle Injury)
C. Favasuli (injured: Thigh Injury)
D. Neres (injured: Thigh Injury)
G. Di Lorenzo (injured: Muscle Injury)
L. Spinazzola (injured: Thigh Injury)
L. Marianucci (suspended: yellow_or_red_card_suspension)
S. Lobotka (injured: Ankle Injury)
Lazio
A. Guðmundsson (injured: Shoulder Injury)
M. Zaccagni (injured: Thigh Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
SSC Napoli
2.27
Draw
3.56
Lazio
2.93
Over 2.5 goals
1.72
Under 2.5 goals
2.13
Both score: yes
1.55
Both score: no
2.34
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.3%.
Last 10 games — SSC Napoli
| 11-04 | A | FC Porto | 1–4 | L |
| 11-01 | A | Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 10-28 | A | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 10-24 | H | AS Roma | 3–3 | D |
| 10-20 | H | Bodø/Glimt | 4–3 | W |
| 10-17 | A | Venezia | 0–1 | L |
| 10-13 | A | Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 10-10 | H | Frosinone | 3–0 | W |
| 09-20 | A | Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
| 09-13 | H | Bologna | 1–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Lazio
| 11-01 | H | Cagliari | 2–1 | W |
| 10-27 | A | Sassuolo | 6–2 | W |
| 10-24 | H | Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 10-18 | A | Juventus | 3–0 | W |
| 10-11 | H | Monza | 3–1 | W |
| 09-19 | A | Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 09-07 | A | Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 08-30 | H | Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 08-24 | A | Bologna | 1–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Lazio, top of the table, should score against an injury-hit Napoli defence. The 1X2 is close to fair, with a slight lean to Lazio, but no price clears the edge bar.
Data (pack). Napoli are 10th with 14 points, and their form is LWDLW. Their last two games were a 0-2 loss at Juventus and a 1-4 loss at Porto, with a red card in each. Their goals-against-minus-goals-for record over 10 games is 1.8-1.8 (expected goals 1.74-1.31). At home over the last 10 they won 5, drew 1 and lost 4, with expected goals of 1.64 for and 1.53 against. They concede late: 11 of their 18 goals against came after the 60th minute. Lazio are 1st on 28 points, with 9 wins, 1 draw and no losses in their last 10, and they scored in all 10. Away they average 1.9 goals for and 0.8 against. Their expected goals of 1.58-1.15 suggest finishing above their chances, so some regression is likely. Lazio have won the last two meetings in Naples (2-0 and 1-0). Referee Pairetto averages 3.31 yellows a game, about league average. Corners average about 9-10 for both teams, and the 8.5/9.5 lines are near coin-flips.
News (web). Napoli's predicted absences are confirmed: Buongiorno, Lobotka, Neres, Spinazzola, Badiashile, Santos and Favasuli are out. Di Lorenzo will miss the game with an adductor strain, and Olivera is doubtful. Marianucci is suspended. The predicted back three is Beukema, Rrahmani and Marin. Allegri is under pressure after crisis talks with president De Laurentiis. Napoli have gone six games without a clean sheet and are fatigued after the Champions League trip to Porto. Lazio are missing only Zaccagni and Guðmundsson, Rovella and Marusic are back, and they come in with seven days' rest against Napoli's four.
Market. The no-margin split is 41.5/26.4/32.1. Napoli's injuries, crisis and rest disadvantage move me towards Lazio (38/26/36). That is about 4 points on the away side, which is borderline. Lazio's 1.58 expected goals and their past finishing luck argue against claiming an edge. On goals, my number is about 59% for over 2.5, after the uplift from past results, against 55.3% implied. Both sides scoring is about 62% against 60.2%. Neither clears the bar.
Lean. Lazio to score at least once is about 75%. Two signals support it: Lazio scored in 10 of 10, and a depleted Napoli back line hasn't kept a clean sheet in six games.
Uncertainties. The XI is predicted, not confirmed. De Bruyne's fitness is unclear. There's also the chance of a reaction from Napoli under a manager whose job is at stake.
Analysed by opus with web research.