Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction
Our pick
Home team goals
Frosinone over 0.5 goals
Sassuolo rarely keep clean sheets and are missing both starting centre-backs.
Why this pick
Sassuolo rarely keep clean sheets and are missing both starting centre-backs.
Sassuolo kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10 games, both overall and away. They are now without both first-choice centre-backs (Idzes injured, Leysen with a serious knee injury against Milan) plus Koné and Boloca in midfield. Frosinone's expected 1.6 goals and fast starts (12 of 16 goals before half-time) support at least one home goal.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Frosinone to score: Sassuolo are missing two starting centre-backs and rarely keep clean sheets.
- 1Sassuolo kept one clean sheet in their last ten games, home or away.
- 2Idzes and Leysen are out, so Sassuolo's back line is reshuffled.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair, so no edge there.
Go deeper
What happened4–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
4–2
Goals
6 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
9 (we expected 9.9)
Cards
1 (we expected 3.9)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone win | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | -1 |
| Sassuolo win | 35% | 36% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 19% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.40
Expected corners
9.9
Expected cards
3.9
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (9%) · 1-2 (8%)
Late team news (3)Sassuolo without Koné, Idzes, Boloca and Pieragnolo; Leysen suffered a serious left knee injury against Milan.
Sassuolo without Koné, Idzes, Boloca and Pieragnolo; Leysen suffered a serious left knee injury against Milan.
2026-10-14reliability: mediumcalciodangolo.com
Frosinone without Grillitsch (recovering from hernia surgery) and Birligea (quadriceps).
2026-10-14reliability: mediumcalciodangolo.com
Probable XIs: Frosinone 4-2-3-1 with Raimondo up front; Sassuolo 4-3-3 with Odenthal and Caleta-Car at centre-back, Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté in attack.
2026-10-14reliability: mediumcalciodangolo.com
What could go wrongFrosinone, with only 41% possession at home, have blank nights: they failed to score in half their last ten home games.
Frosinone, with only 41% possession at home, have blank nights: they failed to score in half their last ten home games.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups
- Official confirmation of how long Leysen is out
- Referee confirmation beyond the pack
The dataFrosinoneLWDWWSassuoloDLWDW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Frosinone | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 9/20 | 11/20 |
| Points (played) | 10 (6) | 8 (6) |
| Form | LWDWW | DLWDW |
| Points per game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals for – against | 1.4 – 1.6 | 1.0 – 1.5 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.37 – 1.82 | 1.37 – 1.66 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 4.8 – 6.0 | 4.5 – 5.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.3 – 2.3 | 1.8 – 2.1 |
| Days since last match | 6 | 5 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
7 meetings: 1 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins · 2.9 goals per game.
- 2026-09-02 · Sassuolo 1–1 Frosinone
- 2024-03-09 · Sassuolo 1–0 Frosinone
- 2023-09-17 · Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo
- 2019-05-05 · Sassuolo 2–2 Frosinone
- 2018-12-16 · Frosinone 0–2 Sassuolo
Referee
Matteo Marchetti (Italy)
This season: 3.65 yellows and 23.8 fouls per game over 23 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.30 yellows per game.
Absences
Frosinone
D. Bîrligea (injured: Muscle Injury)
F. Grillitsch (injured: Groin Injury)
Sassuolo
C. Volpato (injured: Thigh Injury)
D. Boloca (injured: Knee Injury)
F. Leysen (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
I. Koné (injured: Broken Ankle)
J. Idzes (injured: Thigh Injury)
Y. Paz (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Frosinone
2.49
Draw
3.67
Sassuolo
2.60
Over 2.5 goals
1.45
Under 2.5 goals
2.66
Both score: yes
1.39
Both score: no
2.81
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.9%.
Last 10 games — Frosinone
| 10-10 | A | SSC Napoli | 0–3 | L |
| 09-20 | H | Como | 2–0 | W |
| 09-12 | A | Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 09-06 | H | Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 09-02 | A | Sassuolo | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | A | Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 08-23 | H | Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 08-16 | H | Juve Stabia | 4–1 | W |
| 09-23 | A | Cagliari | 1–4 | L |
| 08-17 | A | Monza | 1–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Sassuolo
| 10-11 | H | AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 09-18 | A | Monza | 1–2 | L |
| 09-13 | H | Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 09-06 | A | Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 09-02 | H | Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | H | Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 08-23 | A | Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 08-17 | H | Cesena | 3–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Parma | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Lecce | 2–3 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
An even game with plenty of goals expected; the one lean is Frosinone scoring, because Sassuolo are missing both first-choice centre-backs.
Data (pack). Frosinone sit 9th with 10 points but have conceded more chances than they created (13.0 vs 8.2 on the expected-goals measure). They scored in 1H 12/16 of their goals in the last 10. At home they failed to score in 50% of the last 10, but that window reaches back to last season's Serie A; this season at the Stirpe they beat Venezia 3-2 and Como 2-0 and lost 0-1 to Juventus. Sassuolo: 1-3-6 in their last 10 away, BTTS 80% and Over 2.5 70% away, clean sheets 10%. The H2H is mostly draws (1-1 in the cup on 2 Sep). Corners blend to about 10.4, about 9.9 after the past-results correction, which is no signal. Cards: the teams average 1.9 and 1.3 yellows, and referee Marchetti averages 3.65 yellows (3.3 over his last 10), so about 3.8 cards. Nothing clear there either.
News (web). Calciodangolo (14 Oct) lists Sassuolo without Koné, Idzes, Boloca and Pieragnolo, and Leysen suffered a serious knee injury against Milan. Both first-choice centre-backs are out, and Odenthal and Caleta-Car are expected to start. Frosinone are without Grillitsch (hernia surgery) and Birligea (quadriceps). Raimondo leads the line in a 4-2-3-1.
Market. The 1X2 is near a coin flip (37.9/25.7/36.3). The Sassuolo defensive absences nudge me to the home side, 40/25/35, but that is below the 4-point bar. Goals: expected 1.65-1.4, about 3.05 including the scoring correction. Over 2.5 at 66% and BTTS at 67% match the market (64.7% / 66.9%), so there is no priced edge.
Lean. Frosinone over 0.5 goals: their expected 1.6 goals gives roughly 80% on a Poisson model, shrunk to 77%. The two signals are Sassuolo's 10% clean-sheet rate (home and away) and the loss of both starting centre-backs. Frosinone also start fast, with 12/16 of their goals before half-time.
Uncertainties. Frosinone's chance creation is low compared with their results, the home sample is partly last season's, the lineups are only predicted, and the referee called no penalties in his last 10 games.
Analysed by opus with web research.