Torino vs Udinese prediction
Our pick
Both teams to score
Both teams to score - yes
Torino rarely keep clean sheets, and Udinese score in most away games.
Why this pick
Torino rarely keep clean sheets, and Udinese score in most away games.
Torino kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10, and both sides scored in 70% of those games. They concede early and chase late. Udinese scored in 8 of their last 10 away games and score first often. Both teams' expected goals against run high, and our past results say we underrate scoring.
- Odds
- 1.80
- Odds imply
- 51.7%
- Actual
- BTTS yes
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
In short
Back both sides scoring: Torino's defence leaks goals and Udinese usually score away from home.
- 1Both sides scored in 7 of Torino's last 10 games.
- 2Udinese scored in 8 of their last 10 away games.
- 3Our 57% for both sides scoring beats the bookmaker's 52%.
Go deeper
What happened2–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–1
Goals
3 (we expected 2.5)
Corners
7 (we expected 8.8)
Cards
1 (we expected 3.6)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Both teams score — we say 57%, bookmakers 52%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino win | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | -1 |
| Udinese win | 31% | 30% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 15% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.20
Expected corners
8.8
Expected cards
3.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (9%) · 2-1 (9%)
Late team news (5)Referee Valerio Crezzini; VAR Volpi.
Referee Valerio Crezzini; VAR Volpi. Probable Torino XI (Abate, 3-5-2): Perri; Comuzzo, Coco, Comert; Cacciamani, Vlasic, Mandragora, Fitz-Jim, Belghali; Adams, Simeone.
2026-10-12reliability: hightuttosport.com
Probable Udinese XI (Runjaic, 3-4-2-1): Okoye; Abankwah, Solet, Alaba; Vojvoda, Miller, Karlstrom, Kamara; Unai Gomez, Ekkelenkamp; Davis. This conflicts with the pack, which lists Solet as injured.
2026-10-12reliability: mediumtuttosport.com
Torino: Pellegri (knee) and Israel (shoulder) out; Casadei and Adams doubtful.
2026-10-12reliability: mediumstarting11.com
Udinese: Zaniolo and Piotrowski out; Gueye had surgery this week and faces a long absence.
2026-10-11reliability: mediumfantamaster.it
Udinese have lost three in a row; Torino are still looking for their first home win of the season.
2026-10-12reliability: hightuttosport.com
What could go wrongTorino's weak attack is shut out by Udinese's back three, as happened in May's 2-0 defeat at Udinese.
Torino's weak attack is shut out by Udinese's back three, as happened in May's 2-0 defeat at Udinese.
What it couldn't verify
- Official lineups
- Solet's fitness (sources conflict)
- Che Adams' fitness confirmation
The dataTorinoDLWLLUdineseLLLWD
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Torino | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 15/20 | 14/20 |
| Points (played) | 4 (5) | 4 (5) |
| Form | DLWLL | LLLWD |
| Points per game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals for – against | 1.6 – 1.2 | 1.9 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.56 – 1.47 | 1.14 – 1.81 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 4.4 – 6.1 | 3.0 – 6.1 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.4 – 1.9 | 1.8 – 1.1 |
| Days since last match | 23 | 23 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
62 meetings: 25 home wins, 18 draws, 19 away wins · 2.0 goals per game.
- 2026-05-02 · Udinese 2–0 Torino
- 2026-01-07 · Torino 1–2 Udinese
- 2025-04-23 · Torino 2–0 Udinese
- 2024-12-29 · Udinese 2–2 Torino
- 2024-03-16 · Udinese 0–2 Torino
Referee
Valerio Crezzini (Italy)
This season: 3.23 yellows and 25.6 fouls per game over 13 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.60 yellows per game.
Absences
Torino
N. Fortini (injured: Muscle Injury)
Udinese
I. Gueye (injured: Ankle Injury)
J. Arizala (injured: Thigh Injury)
N. Zaniolo (injured: Thigh Injury)
O. Solet (injured: Thigh Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Torino
2.35
Draw
3.19
Udinese
3.11
Over 2.5 goals
2.12
Under 2.5 goals
1.73
Both score: yes
1.80
Both score: no
1.93
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.1%.
Last 10 games — Torino
| 09-19 | A | Bologna | 1–1 | D |
| 09-14 | H | AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 09-05 | A | Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 09-01 | H | Monza | 0–1 | L |
| 08-29 | A | Sassuolo | 1–2 | L |
| 08-23 | H | AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
| 08-15 | H | Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 05-24 | H | Juventus | 2–2 | D |
| 05-17 | A | Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 05-08 | H | Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Udinese
| 09-19 | H | Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 09-14 | A | Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 09-07 | H | Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 09-02 | H | Venezia | 2–1 | W |
| 08-29 | A | Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 08-22 | H | Como | 1–1 | D |
| 08-15 | H | Padova | 1–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | SSC Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Cremonese | 0–1 | L |
| 05-09 | A | Cagliari | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
An even match with a slight lean to Torino at home. The one pick is both sides to score: Torino concede often and Udinese have scored in most away games.
Data (pack). Both sides have 4 points from 5 games, and both are coming off a 23-day break.
- Torino: 1.1 goals for and 1.4 against in their last 10, with expected goals of 1.28 for and 1.48 against. At home it is 1.6 for and 1.2 against. They kept 1 clean sheet in 10, both sides scored in 70% of those games, and Torino scored first only 2/10 times. They score late (7 of 11 goals after the 60th minute).
- Udinese away: 1.9 for and 1.6 against. They failed to score in only 2 of 10 away games and scored first in 7/10. But their away expected goals are poor (1.14 for, 1.81 against), and they have lost three in a row.
- Head-to-head: 2.4 goals per game; Udinese won both 2026 meetings.
- Corners: blended about 9.5, about 8.8 after our usual correction. Nothing there.
- Cards: referee Crezzini shows 3.2–3.6 yellows a game and 0 reds; the teams average about 3.2 yellows combined. Not a clear edge.
News (web).
- Tuttosport names Crezzini as referee and has Torino (coach Abate, 3-5-2) starting Adams and Simeone up front. Udinese (Runjaic) go with Davis as the lone striker.
- Torino: Pellegri and Israel are out, Casadei is a doubt (Starting11).
- Udinese: Zaniolo and Gueye are out, and Gueye has had surgery. Solet is listed injured in the pack but Tuttosport has him starting, so his status is conflicting.
- Torino are still looking for their first home win of the season.
Market. We keep 1X2 close to the prices (40/29/31); nothing justifies moving away. On goals we add about 0.3 to the expected total, per our past results, which puts over 2.5 at about 50% (market 45%). That is short of a large edge, so no pick. For both sides scoring: Torino score about 74% of the time and Udinese about 68%. Allowing for open, late-scoring games and the scoring correction gives about 57% against a no-margin 51.7%. That is a modest edge, labelled low confidence.
Uncertainties. Adams' fitness, Solet's status, and Torino's low chance creation (0.8–1.0 expected goals in most recent games).
Analysed by opus with web research.