Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction
Our picks
Both teams to score
Both teams to score - yes
Sassuolo rarely fail to score at home, and Milan concede in most games.
Why this pick
Sassuolo rarely fail to score at home, and Milan concede in most games.
Sassuolo scored in 9 of their last 10 games and in 9 of 10 at home, where both sides scored 70% of the time. Milan conceded in 80% of their last 10. Head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals with both sides scoring in 6 of 10, and the referee's games average 3.13 goals. Past results also show the model underrates scoring.
- Odds
- 1.66
- Odds imply
- 56.1%
- Actual
- BTTS yes
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
63%Milan second-half goalsAC Milan over 0.5 second-half goalsWon
Milan scored 12 of their last 15 goals after half-time (10 of 12 away) and scored in the second half in 7 of their last 10 games. Sassuolo conceded 11 of 16 goals after the break across all competitions, including 5 in the last 15 minutes.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back both sides scoring: Sassuolo almost always score and Milan concede most weeks.
- 1Sassuolo scored in nine of their last ten games, and Milan conceded in eight.
- 2Sassuolo are still without Koné and Paz; Milan only miss Saelemaekers.
- 3We put both sides scoring at 61%, against about 56% in the price.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.6)
Cards
5 (we expected 4.1)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Both teams score — we say 61%, bookmakers 56%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| AC Milan win | 51% | 52% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 33% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 13% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.55
Expected corners
8.6
Expected cards
4.1
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%) · 2-1 (8%)
Late team news (4)Saelemaekers remains out with the right ankle problem; a new operation is planned and he is expected back in 2027.
Saelemaekers remains out with the right ankle problem; a new operation is planned and he is expected back in 2027.
2026-10-10reliability: mediumdazn.com
Estupiñán returned to group training on 9 October after a knee problem with Ecuador and is available for Sassuolo.
2026-10-10reliability: mediumdazn.com
Sassuolo (coach Aquilani): Koné out until November at the earliest; Candé closest to return; Idzes and Volpato aiming to be fit for Milan; updates pending on Boloca, Walukiewicz and Pieragnolo.
2026-09-22reliability: mediummilanpress.it
Starting11 lists 8 Sassuolo players out and Bakola doubtful for the Milan game.
2026-10reliability: lowstarting11.com
What could go wrongMilan keep a tight game and win 1-0 or 2-0 against a Sassuolo side missing several players.
Milan keep a tight game and win 1-0 or 2-0 against a Sassuolo side missing several players.
What it couldn't verify
- Official squad lists and predicted lineups for this match
- Allegri/Aquilani pre-match press conference quotes
- Whether Idzes and Volpato are fit
The dataSassuoloLWDWLAC MilanWDDWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 10/20 | 5/20 |
| Points (played) | 7 (5) | 11 (5) |
| Form | LWDWL | WDDWW |
| Points per game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals for – against | 1.9 – 1.1 | 1.2 – 1.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.23 – 1.21 | 1.36 – 1.12 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 3.8 – 5.7 | 3.8 – 3.7 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.0 – 2.3 | 1.6 – 1.9 |
| Days since last match | 23 | 21 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
26 meetings: 8 home wins, 5 draws, 13 away wins · 3.3 goals per game.
- 2026-05-03 · Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan
- 2025-12-14 · AC Milan 2–2 Sassuolo
- 2024-12-03 · AC Milan 6–1 Sassuolo
- 2024-04-14 · Sassuolo 3–3 AC Milan
- 2023-12-30 · AC Milan 1–0 Sassuolo
Referee
Francesco Fourneau (Italy)
This season: 4.00 yellows and 25.6 fouls per game over 15 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.80 yellows per game.
Absences
Sassuolo
C. Volpato (injured: Thigh Injury)
D. Boloca (injured: Knee Injury)
I. Koné (injured: Broken Ankle)
J. Idzes (injured: Thigh Injury)
Y. Paz (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
AC Milan
A. Saelemaekers (injured: Ankle Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Sassuolo
4.14
Draw
3.71
AC Milan
1.82
Over 2.5 goals
1.75
Under 2.5 goals
2.09
Both score: yes
1.66
Both score: no
2.12
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.1%.
Last 10 games — Sassuolo
| 09-18 | A | Monza | 1–2 | L |
| 09-13 | H | Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 09-06 | A | Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 09-02 | H | Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | H | Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 08-23 | A | Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 08-17 | H | Cesena | 3–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Parma | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 05-08 | A | Torino | 1–2 | L |
Last 10 games — AC Milan
| 09-20 | H | Lecce | 3–0 | W |
| 09-16 | H | Benfica | 0–2 | L |
| 09-12 | A | Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | A | Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 08-28 | H | Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 08-23 | A | Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 05-24 | H | Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 05-17 | A | Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 05-10 | H | Atalanta | 2–3 | L |
| 05-03 | A | Sassuolo | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Milan are rightly favourites, but Sassuolo's home scoring and a high-scoring head-to-head make both sides scoring the value play.
Data (pack). Sassuolo are strong at home: 7-1-2 in their last 10 home games, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.1 per game. Both sides scored in 70% of those games and they failed to score only 10% of the time. They also beat Milan 2-0 here in May. Overall form is weaker (3-2-5), and their chances created at home are modest (1.23 per game). Milan are 5-2-3 in their last 10 away games, conceding 1.0 per game. Their scoring comes very late: 12 of 15 goals arrived after half-time (10 of 12 away). The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals, with both sides scoring in 6. Referee Fourneau averages 4.0 yellows per game and 3.13 goals per game this season, with no reds in 15 matches. On corners, Sassuolo home games average 9.5 and Milan away games 7.5. That gives about 8.6 after the known overestimate correction, so there is no corners lean.
News (web). Saelemaekers is out long-term after another ankle operation is planned. Estupiñán is back in training and available (DAZN). For Sassuolo, Koné is out until November. Idzes and Volpato were racing to be fit, and Candé was closest to returning (MilanPress, 22 Sep). The pack still lists Idzes and Volpato as injured. Both teams come off a 3-week break, so freshness or rustiness is unclear. I found no official squad lists.
Market. 1X2 (22.8/25.4/51.8) looks fair, and I stay close at 24/25/51 given Sassuolo's home record. Applying the scoring correction from past results, I put total goals near 2.85. Both sides scoring at 61% is 5 points over the no-margin 56.1%, which clears the bar. Over 2.5 at 59% is a similar edge, but both sides scoring is backed by more independent signals, so I pick that one. Separately, Milan's habit of scoring after half-time supports them scoring in the second half (about 63%).
Uncertainties. Sassuolo's back line is weakened, which could produce a lopsided Milan win. Sassuolo's home chances created are low. There is post-break rustiness, and no confirmed lineups.
Analysed by opus with web research.