Como vs AS Roma prediction
Our pick
Roma team goals
Roma over 0.5 goals
Roma have scored in all 10 recent away games, and Como rarely keep clean sheets at home.
Why this pick
Roma have scored in all 10 recent away games, and Como rarely keep clean sheets at home.
Roma scored in 10 of their last 10 games overall and 10 of their last 10 away. Como kept clean sheets in only 40% of their recent home games. Roma's expected goals of about 1.35 implies roughly 74%, and Malen's return adds a finisher. We shrink to 71% because Como hog the ball (62%) and held Roma to 3 shots in March.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Roma to score: they have scored in 10 straight away games, and Como are missing Kean.
- 1Roma have scored in all of their last 10 games, home and away.
- 2Roma's first-choice keeper Svilar is out and Gollini starts; Como likely lack Kean.
- 3The market splits the result almost evenly, and we see no edge there.
Go deeper
What happened0–0 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–0
Goals
0 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.4)
Cards
7 (we expected 3.8)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como win | 37% | 38% | -1 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| AS Roma win | 36% | 36% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 36% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 17% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.35
Expected corners
8.4
Expected cards
3.8
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 2-1 (9%) · 1-2 (8%)
Late team news (5)Svilar out for at least a month with a stress fracture in a finger; Gollini to start in goal.
Svilar out for at least a month with a stress fracture in a finger; Gollini to start in goal.
2026-10-10reliability: higheurosport.it
Cristante misses the trip with a knee problem; Malen and Wesley back and available.
2026-10-07reliability: highsport.sky.it
Kean doubtful (Sky) or unavailable (Eurosport) with a light muscle strain; Douvikas the alternative up front.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumsport.sky.it
Probable XIs: Como 4-2-3-1 Butez; Couto, Valle, Ramón, da Cunha; Chalobah, Perrone; Diao, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas. Roma 3-4-2-1 Gollini; Ndicka, Mancini, Hermoso; Molina, de Roon, Koné, Wesley; Dybala, Mora; Malen.
2026-10-11reliability: mediumtuttosport.com
No suspensions for either side.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumsport.sky.it
What could go wrongComo control the ball as usual, about 62%, and Roma's attack is shut out by their high press.
Como control the ball as usual, about 62%, and Roma's attack is shut out by their high press.
What it couldn't verify
- Kean's final status (sources conflict)
- Confirmed starting lineups
- Referee confirmation from a web source (taken from the pack only)
The dataComoLWWWDAS RomaDWWWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Como | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 8/20 | 2/20 |
| Points (played) | 10 (5) | 13 (5) |
| Form | LWWWD | DWWWW |
| Points per game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals for – against | 2.1 – 1.0 | 1.9 – 1.3 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.14 – 0.78 | 1.75 – 1.32 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.0 – 2.0 | 4.5 – 4.4 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 2.0 | 1.7 – 1.6 |
| Days since last match | 21 | 22 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
22 meetings: 4 home wins, 7 draws, 11 away wins · 1.5 goals per game.
- 2026-03-15 · Como 2–1 AS Roma
- 2025-12-15 · AS Roma 1–0 Como
- 2025-03-02 · AS Roma 2–1 Como
- 2024-12-15 · Como 2–0 AS Roma
- 2003-01-25 · Como 2–0 AS Roma
Referee
Michael Fabbri (Italy)
This season: 3.78 yellows and 24.1 fouls per game over 18 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Como
M. Kean (injured: Muscle Injury)
AS Roma
B. Cristante (injured: Knee Injury)
K. Koulierakis (injured: Leg Injury)
M. Svilar (injured: Broken Finger)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Como
2.49
Draw
3.51
AS Roma
2.65
Over 2.5 goals
1.64
Under 2.5 goals
2.26
Both score: yes
1.50
Both score: no
2.46
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.4%.
Last 10 games — Como
| 09-20 | A | Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
| 09-14 | H | Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 09-10 | H | RB Leipzig | 4–1 | W |
| 09-04 | A | Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 08-30 | A | SSC Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 08-22 | A | Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 05-24 | A | Cremonese | 4–1 | W |
| 05-17 | H | Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Hellas Verona | 1–0 | W |
| 05-02 | H | SSC Napoli | 0–0 | D |
Last 10 games — AS Roma
| 09-19 | H | Inter | 2–2 | D |
| 09-14 | A | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | A | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | A | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | H | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Evenly matched game priced about right: the one lean is Roma scoring, as they have in all of their last 10 away games and now have a backup goalkeeper.
Data (pack)
- Como: 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game, 62% possession and a big edge in shots. They have lost 2 of their last 10 at home. They also won this fixture 2-1 in March, with 22 shots to 3 and chances worth 2.2 goals to 0.9.
- Roma: 8-2-0 in their last 10 and second in the table (GD +11). They failed to score in none of their last 10 games overall and none of their last 10 away. Away from home they look weaker: 1.3 conceded per game, 40% clean sheets, and 7 of 13 goals conceded in minutes 46-60.
- Both sides have had about three weeks off, so fatigue is not a factor.
- Referee Fabbri: 3.78 yellows per game this season and 3.1 over his last 10, with 0.17-0.2 reds. His games have been low-scoring (1.72 goals per game), which slightly offsets the scoring lesson from past results.
- Corners: blending each side's corners won and conceded gives about 5.3 for Como and 3.3 for Roma, roughly 8.6 in total. After the lesson that we overestimate corners, that drops to about 8.4. No corners pick.
News (web)
- Svilar is out for at least a month with a stress fracture in a finger, so Gollini starts. Cristante (knee) is out.
- Malen and Wesley are back for Roma.
- Kean is doubtful to out for Como (Sky says doubtful, Eurosport says unavailable). Douvikas is the expected striker.
- Neither side has a suspension.
Market
1X2 is priced at 37.7/26.8/35.5. Both teams lose a key player, so we see no reason to move away from that.
- Our expected goals: 1.45-1.35. That puts over 2.5 at about 58%, matching the market's 57.9%, and both sides scoring at about 60%, against the market's 62%. Neither has an edge.
- Roma scoring is unpriced. The signals: a 10/10 scoring run away, Como keeping only 40% clean sheets at home, a scoring model figure of about 74%, and Roma's attack strengthened by Malen returning. We shrink that to 71%.
Uncertainties
- Kean's final status.
- How sharp Gollini is.
- Como's control of possession could limit Roma's chances, as happened in March, when Roma's only goal came early.
Analysed by opus with web research.