Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
Our picks
Venezia team goals
Venezia over 0.5 goals
Atalanta rarely keep clean sheets and Venezia have scored in most away games.
Why this pick
Atalanta rarely keep clean sheets and Venezia have scored in most away games.
Atalanta kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 (4 of 10 at home) and have allowed 9.7 expected goals in 5 league games. Venezia scored in 7 of 10 away games and have created 7.8 expected goals in 5 league games. Hien is out for Atalanta's defence.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
62%Total cornersunder 9.5 cornersLost
Atalanta's games average 7.4 corners (7.8 at home) and Venezia's away games average 7.4. Bzzoiro gives over 9.5 only 42.6%, and past forecasts overestimated corners by about 0.7.
- Actual
- 15
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Venezia to score: Atalanta concede often at home and Venezia score in most away games.
- 1Atalanta kept clean sheets in only 3 of their last 10 games.
- 2Venezia scored in 7 of their last 10 away games despite losing every league match.
- 3The match result and total goals prices look fair, so there's no edge there.
Go deeper
What happened3–1 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
3–1
Goals
4 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
15 (we expected 8.1)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.1)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 34%, bookmakers 41%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 58% | 62% | -4 |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | +2 |
| Venezia win | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 82% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 41% | -7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 20% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.05
Expected corners
8.1
Expected cards
4.1
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (4)Atalanta defender Hien is injured and expected back only after the second international break (Giuntoli).
Atalanta defender Hien is injured and expected back only after the second international break (Giuntoli).
2026-10-02reliability: mediumfantacalcio.it
Starting11 lists Hien out, Kristensen and Ahanor doubtful, and Sulemana (knee) out for Atalanta.
2026-10reliability: lowstarting11.com
Tuttosport probable lineups for matchday 6 were not yet published at the time of search.
2026-10-12reliability: mediumtuttosport.com
Venezia striker Adorante has recurring back problems (preseason absence in July 2026), matching the pack's back injury listing.
2026-07reliability: mediumpazzidifanta.com
What could go wrongAtalanta control the ball after the long break and Venezia, with Adorante out, create almost nothing.
Atalanta control the ball after the long break and Venezia, with Adorante out, create almost nothing.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed or probable XIs for either side
- Kristensen and Ahanor current fitness
- Venezia match-eve squad list and manager comments
The dataAtalantaLLLWWVeneziaLLLLL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Atalanta | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 11/20 | 20/20 |
| Points (played) | 6 (5) | 0 (5) |
| Form | LLLWW | LLLLL |
| Points per game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals for – against | 0.7 – 1.2 | 0.9 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.38 – 1.44 | 1.01 – 1.51 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 4.3 – 3.5 | 2.8 – 4.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.1 – 1.7 | 2.2 – 1.5 |
| Days since last match | 22 | 23 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
9 meetings: 7 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins · 1.9 goals per game.
- 2025-03-01 · Atalanta 0–0 Venezia
- 2024-10-20 · Venezia 0–2 Atalanta
- 2022-04-23 · Venezia 1–3 Atalanta
- 2022-01-12 · Atalanta 2–0 Venezia
- 2021-11-30 · Atalanta 4–0 Venezia
Referee
Paride Tremolada (Italy)
This season: 4.33 yellows and 25.4 fouls per game over 9 matches.
Last 9 matches: 4.33 yellows per game.
Absences
Atalanta
G. Raspadori (injured: Thigh Injury)
K. Sulemana (injured: Knee Injury)
O. Kossounou (injured: Thigh Injury)
T. Pompei (injured: Broken Finger)
Venezia
A. Adorante (injured: Back Injury)
B. Franjić (injured: Shoulder Injury)
G. Busio (injured: Thigh Injury)
M. Šverko (injured: Thigh Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Atalanta
1.53
Draw
4.42
Venezia
5.67
Over 2.5 goals
1.51
Under 2.5 goals
2.48
Both score: yes
1.62
Both score: no
2.21
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.6%.
Last 10 games — Atalanta
| 09-20 | A | Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 09-12 | H | Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | A | AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 08-31 | H | Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 08-27 | A | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1–0 | W |
| 08-23 | H | Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 08-20 | H | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 0–0 | D |
| 05-22 | A | Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
| 05-17 | H | Bologna | 0–1 | L |
| 05-10 | A | AC Milan | 3–2 | W |
Last 10 games — Venezia
| 09-19 | H | Lazio | 0–2 | L |
| 09-11 | H | Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 09-02 | A | Udinese | 1–2 | L |
| 08-28 | A | AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 08-23 | H | Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 08-15 | H | Modena | 3–2 | W |
| 12-03 | A | Inter | 1–5 | L |
| 09-24 | A | Hellas Verona | 0–0 | D |
| 08-16 | H | Mantova | 4–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Atalanta are rightly favourites against a pointless Venezia, but the prices are fair; the best angle is Venezia scoring against a home side that rarely keeps clean sheets.
Data (pack). Atalanta are 11th with 6 pts, but they have created very little: 3.5 expected goals for and 9.7 against in 5 league games. Over their last 10 they average 1.0 goals for and 1.1 against, and at home it is 0.7 for and 1.2 against, with only 30% of home games going over 2.5. Venezia are bottom with 5 straight league defeats (GF 4, GA 13). Their attacking numbers are decent (7.8 expected goals for in 5 games), but their defence leaks: 2.2 conceded per game over the last 10, with 22 of those goals coming between minutes 16 and 90. Away from home they scored in 7 of 10 and had both sides scoring in 70%. Atalanta's clean-sheet rate is 30%. The head-to-head is lopsided (Atalanta 7W 2D 0L, 15-2), but most of those games are old. Both sides come off 22-23 days of rest, so fatigue is not a factor. Referee Tremolada gives 4.33 yellows and 0.33 reds per game, with no penalties scored in his last 9. Corner totals are low: Atalanta 7.4 overall and 7.8 at home, Venezia 7.4 away.
News (web). Nothing specific to this match had been published yet, and the Tuttosport probable-lineups page was still empty. Giuntoli (2 Oct) said Hien will return only after the second international break, which weakens Atalanta's defence. Adorante's back problem is in the pack, and the latest report on it is from July. The pack's absences stand.
Market. Home win 61.9%, over 2.5 at 62.2%, both sides scoring at 57.7%. My own figures are home 58 / draw 23 / away 19, over 2.5 at 58% and both sides scoring at 57%. Even after the scoring adjustment from past lessons, Atalanta's weak attack keeps me from going above the market on goals. No priced market clears a 4-point edge.
Leans. Venezia to score (about 64%) is backed by three signals: Atalanta's 30% clean-sheet rate, Venezia scoring in 70% of away games, and Hien being out. Under 9.5 corners (about 63%) is backed by both sides' low corner totals plus the lesson that past forecasts overestimated corners.
Uncertainties. We don't know the lineups yet, and it's unclear whether Atalanta's poor attacking numbers are a real problem or bad luck.
Analysed by opus with web research.