AS Roma vs Inter prediction
Our picks
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
Why this pick
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- Odds
- 2.49
- Odds imply
- 37.6%
- Actual
- BTTS yes
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)Won
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
Go deeper
What happened2–2 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
2–2
Goals
4 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
6 (we expected 9.2)
Cards
6 (we expected 4.8)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Both teams score — we say 57%, bookmakers 62%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Inter win | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.25
Expected corners
9.2
Expected cards
4.8
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (6)Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18reliability: highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18reliability: higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18reliability: highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19reliability: mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19reliability: mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18reliability: mediumcalciomercato.com
What could go wrongConfirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
The dataAS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| Points (played) | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Form | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| Points per game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals for – against | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| Days since last match | 5 | 5 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
131 meetings: 37 home wins, 42 draws, 52 away wins · 3.0 goals per game.
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
This season: 3.92 yellows and 25.7 fouls per game over 39 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.50 yellows per game.
Absences
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
AS Roma
2.61
Draw
3.45
Inter
2.57
Over 2.5 goals
1.60
Under 2.5 goals
2.35
Both score: yes
1.50
Both score: no
2.49
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.2%.
Last 10 games — AS Roma
| 09-14 | A | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | A | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | A | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | H | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | A | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Inter
| 09-14 | H | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | A | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | H | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | A | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | H | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | A | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | H | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | A | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | A | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | H | Parma | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
Analysed by opus with web research.