Liverpool FC vs Manchester City prediction
Our picks
Away team goals
Manchester City over 0.5 goals
City have scored in every one of their last 10 games, and Liverpool rarely keep clean sheets at home.
Why this pick
City have scored in every one of their last 10 games, and Liverpool rarely keep clean sheets at home.
City scored in 10 of their last 10 games (0% failed to score, home and away) and in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Liverpool kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home games. Expected goals of about 1.5 for City imply roughly 76%. Haaland and Semenyo are fit, so Foden's ban is the only notable absence.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
60%Total cardsover 3.5 cardsWon
Kavanagh averages 5.5 yellows and 0.3 reds over his last 10 games (4.22 this season). Liverpool's games average 4.6 yellows. This is a high-stakes top-of-table match in wet conditions. City's own games are calmer (3.1 per game), which caps confidence.
- Actual
- 7
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back City to score at least once: they always score, and Liverpool have no recognised striker.
- 1City have scored in all of their last 10 games and lead the league.
- 2Liverpool are missing Isak, Gakpo and Ekitiké, their three main attackers.
- 3Kavanagh averages 5.5 yellows over his last 10 games, so expect a feisty match.
Go deeper
What happened0–3 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
0–3
Goals
3 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
11 (we expected 9.3)
Cards
7 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool FC win | 30% | 32% | -2 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| Manchester City win | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 81% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 39% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.55
Expected corners
9.3
Expected cards
4.3
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (10%) · 0-1 (8%)
Late team news (4)Isak (thigh) and Gakpo (ankle) are out after injuries on international duty; Ekitiké is still unavailable; Jacquet is available…
Isak (thigh) and Gakpo (ankle) are out after injuries on international duty; Ekitiké is still unavailable; Jacquet is available; Koumas or Barcola is expected to lead the line.
2026-10-09reliability: medium101greatgoals.com
Foden serves the last game of a three-match ban for his derby red card; Haaland and Semenyo are fit; O'Reilly is doubtful after withdrawing from the England squad.
2026-10-09reliability: medium101greatgoals.com
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola confirmed Isak and Gakpo will miss the City game but said neither injury looks long-term.
2026-10-09reliability: highgoal.com
Chris Kavanagh is confirmed as referee.
2026-10-09reliability: medium101greatgoals.com
What could go wrongLiverpool's home defence, with 30% clean sheets, shuts out City's attack, which is missing Foden, in a cagey game.
Liverpool's home defence, with 30% clean sheets, shuts out City's attack, which is missing Foden, in a cagey game.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- O'Reilly's final fitness status
- City's official pre-match press conference details
The dataLiverpool FCWDWDDManchester CityWWWWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Liverpool FC | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 7/20 | 1/20 |
| Points (played) | 9 (5) | 15 (5) |
| Form | WDWDD | WWWWW |
| Points per game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals for – against | 1.8 – 0.9 | 1.9 – 0.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.91 – 1.29 | 1.83 – 1.03 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Corners for – against | 6.4 – 5.2 | 7.8 – 3.7 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.7 | 1.7 – 2.3 |
| Days since last match | 21 | 21 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
66 meetings: 27 home wins, 23 draws, 16 away wins · 2.9 goals per game.
- 2026-04-04 · Manchester City 4–0 Liverpool FC
- 2026-02-08 · Liverpool FC 1–2 Manchester City
- 2025-11-09 · Manchester City 3–0 Liverpool FC
- 2025-02-23 · Manchester City 0–2 Liverpool FC
- 2024-12-01 · Liverpool FC 2–0 Manchester City
Referee
Chris Kavanagh (England)
This season: 4.22 yellows and 22.6 fouls per game over 55 matches.
Last 10 matches: 5.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Liverpool FC
A. Isak (injured: Thigh Injury)
C. Gakpo (injured: Ankle Injury)
C. Bradley (injured: Knee Injury)
F. Chiesa (injured: Back Injury)
G. Leoni (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
H. Ekitiké (injured: Achilles Tendon Injury)
Manchester City
P. Foden (suspended: red_card_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Liverpool FC
2.92
Draw
3.67
Manchester City
2.26
Over 2.5 goals
1.61
Under 2.5 goals
2.32
Both score: yes
1.49
Both score: no
2.49
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.7%.
Last 10 games — Liverpool FC
| 09-20 | A | Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
| 09-15 | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–1 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Fulham | 0–0 | D |
| 09-09 | H | Atlético Madrid | 2–1 | W |
| 09-04 | A | Ipswich Town | 2–0 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Nottingham Forest | 2–2 | D |
| 08-23 | A | Newcastle United | 2–2 | D |
| 05-24 | H | Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 05-15 | A | Aston Villa | 2–4 | L |
| 05-09 | H | Chelsea | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Manchester City
| 09-20 | H | Sunderland | 5–3 | W |
| 09-17 | H | Norwich City | 5–0 | W |
| 09-13 | A | Manchester United | 1–0 | W |
| 09-08 | A | FC Porto | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | H | Coventry City | 1–0 | W |
| 08-28 | A | Crystal Palace | 4–1 | W |
| 08-23 | H | Bournemouth | 2–1 | W |
| 05-24 | H | Aston Villa | 1–2 | L |
| 05-19 | A | Bournemouth | 1–1 | D |
| 05-16 | A | Chelsea | 1–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Slight City lean at Anfield: Liverpool are without Isak, Gakpo and Ekitiké, and City have scored in every one of their last 10 games, so we back City to score.
Data (pack). City top the table (15 points from 5), scored in 10 of their last 10 games and kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 away games, conceding 0.6 per game. They score mostly after the break (15 of 23 goals). Liverpool are 7th with 4 draws in their last 10 at home. They have conceded in 70% of those home games, mainly between 61 and 75 minutes (5 of 9). Head-to-head: City won 3 of the last 4 (4-0, 2-1, 3-0) and scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Both sides are on 21 days' rest. Kavanagh: 4.22 yellows per game this season but 5.5 over his last 10 games, with 0.3 reds. Liverpool's games average 4.6 yellows, City's 3.1.
News (web). Isak (thigh) and Gakpo (ankle) were injured on international duty and are out. Iraola confirmed this, though he says neither is long-term. Ekitiké is also out. The predicted Liverpool front line uses Koumas or Barcola as a makeshift striker. City: Foden serves the last match of his ban. Haaland and Semenyo are fit, and O'Reilly is doubtful. Iraola, not Slot, is now Liverpool's manager.
Market. The market gives Liverpool 32%, the draw 26% and City 42%, with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both sides scoring at 63%. The weakened Liverpool attack nudges us towards City (44%). We take a little off Liverpool's goals, which offsets the usual tendency to underrate scoring, so totals stay near the market (over 2.5 goals 60%). None of the priced markets clears the 4-point edge bar.
Picks. City over 0.5 goals: the expected-goals line puts City around 1.5, which gives roughly 76%. It is backed by 10 of 10 games scoring, head-to-head scoring in 8 of 10 and Liverpool's 30% home clean-sheet rate. Over 3.5 cards: the referee's recent 5.5 average, Liverpool's 4.6 yellows per game and the stakes of a top-of-table match give roughly 60%. City's low card counts are the counter-signal, so confidence is low.
Uncertainties. Wet conditions. Liverpool's actual striker choice. O'Reilly's fitness. Kavanagh's season average (4.22) is lower than his recent form.
Analysed by opus with web research.