Coventry City vs Newcastle United prediction
Our pick
Newcastle team goals
Newcastle over 0.5 goals
Coventry concede in most games and Newcastle have scored in nine of their last ten.
Why this pick
Coventry concede in most games and Newcastle have scored in nine of their last ten.
Coventry kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games and allow 1.64 expected goals per league game. Newcastle failed to score in just 1 of their last 10. Burn, Ramsey and González returning strengthens the squad, and our model's 1.6 expected goals for Newcastle points to about 78%.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Newcastle to score: Coventry have kept just two clean sheets in their last ten games.
- 1Coventry have one league goal in five games and sit 19th.
- 2Newcastle expect Burn, Ramsey and González back; Elanga and Osula likely miss out.
- 3Bookmaker prices for the result and goals match our numbers, so there's no value there.
Go deeper
What happened4–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
4–1
Goals
5 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.9)
Cards
2 (we expected 4.1)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City win | 29% | 30% | -1 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | -1 |
| Newcastle United win | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 36% | -1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 27% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 20% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.60
Expected corners
8.9
Expected cards
4.1
Late team news (3)Coventry: van Ewijk and Kesler-Hayden back in team training; Woolfenden weeks away; Amenda out until year-end; Eccles out…
Coventry: van Ewijk and Kesler-Hayden back in team training; Woolfenden weeks away; Amenda out until year-end; Eccles out (calf); Awoniyi suspended; Haji Wright yet to play.
2026-10-09reliability: mediumvavel.com
Newcastle (manager Jaissle): Burn and Ramsey back in training, González cleared concussion protocol; Jaouen out ~2 months (hamstring surgery); Elanga and Osula unlikely; Dedic to start at right-back; Livramento building fitness.
2026-10-09reliability: mediumvavel.com
Starting11 lists Kesler-Hayden as out with a muscle injury, which conflicts with reports that he is back in training.
2026-10reliability: lowstarting11.com
What could go wrongNewcastle's attack without Elanga and Osula stalls away, as it did in four scoreless trips last season.
Newcastle's attack without Elanga and Osula stalls away, as it did in four scoreless trips last season.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups
- Whether Joelinton is fit to play
- Kesler-Hayden's status (reports conflict)
The dataCoventry CityWLLLLNewcastle UnitedWLDWD
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Coventry City | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 19/20 | 11/20 |
| Points (played) | 3 (5) | 8 (5) |
| Form | WLLLL | WLDWD |
| Points per game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 1.8 – 1.6 | 1.0 – 1.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.14 – 1.23 | 1.09 – 1.65 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 5.5 – 2.8 | 4.8 – 5.1 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.0 – 1.8 | 2.2 – 1.5 |
| Days since last match | 23 | 23 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
19 meetings: 3 home wins, 3 draws, 13 away wins · 3.3 goals per game.
- 2010-02-17 · Newcastle United 4–1 Coventry City
- 2009-12-09 · Coventry City 0–2 Newcastle United
- 2008-08-26 · Coventry City 2–3 Newcastle United
- 2001-01-13 · Newcastle United 3–1 Coventry City
- 2000-09-06 · Coventry City 0–2 Newcastle United
Referee
John Brooks (England)
This season: 4.83 yellows and 23.4 fouls per game over 30 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Coventry City
A. Amenda (injured: Calf Injury)
H. Wright (injured: Muscle Injury)
J. Eccles (injured: Knock Injury)
K. Kesler-Hayden (injured: Hamstring Injury)
L. Woolfenden (injured: Knee Injury)
T. Awoniyi (suspended: red_card_suspension)
Newcastle United
A. Elanga (injured: Knock Injury)
E. Jaouen (injured: Hamstring Injury)
J. Ramsey (injured: Thigh Injury)
Joelinton (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. González (injured: Head Injury)
T. Livramento (injured: Knock Injury)
W. Osula (injured: Knock Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Coventry City
3.13
Draw
3.56
Newcastle United
2.18
Over 2.5 goals
1.68
Under 2.5 goals
2.19
Both score: yes
1.55
Both score: no
2.34
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.9%.
Last 10 games — Coventry City
| 09-19 | A | Nottingham Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 09-16 | H | Aston Villa | 1–3 | L |
| 09-13 | H | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–5 | L |
| 09-05 | A | Manchester City | 0–1 | L |
| 08-29 | H | Hull City | 0–1 | L |
| 08-25 | A | Plymouth Argyle | 4–2 | W |
| 08-21 | A | Arsenal | 0–3 | L |
| 05-02 | A | Watford | 4–0 | W |
| 04-26 | H | Wrexham | 3–1 | W |
| 04-21 | H | Portsmouth | 5–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Newcastle United
| 09-19 | H | Hull City | 2–1 | W |
| 09-14 | A | Leeds United | 1–4 | L |
| 09-08 | A | Millwall | 1–0 | W |
| 09-05 | H | Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 08-29 | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 2–0 | W |
| 08-26 | H | West Bromwich Albion | 3–2 | W |
| 08-23 | H | Liverpool FC | 2–2 | D |
| 05-24 | A | Fulham | 0–2 | L |
| 05-17 | H | West Ham United | 3–1 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Nottingham Forest | 1–1 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Newcastle are slight favourites against a Coventry side that has scored once in five league games, but the market looks fair; the only lean is Newcastle to score.
(a) Data. Coventry are 19th with 1 goal for and 10 against in 5 league games. Their underlying numbers say 4.9 expected goals for and 8.2 against. Their good home record is mostly from the Championship last spring. In the Premier League at home they lost 0-1 to Hull and 0-5 to Brighton (with a red card). They have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games. Newcastle are 11th with 9 goals for and 9 against. They failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 games, but away from home they are weaker: 1.0 goals for and 1.9 against per game, with over 2.5 goals in 40% of those games. Head-to-head meetings are 17 or more years old, so they tell us nothing. The referee, John Brooks, shows 4.83 yellows per game this season and 0.2 reds. Newcastle games average 4.4 yellows, but Coventry games only 2.9, so the card signals conflict. Both teams have had 23 days' rest.
(b) News (web). Vavel, 9 October: Coventry get van Ewijk and Kesler-Hayden back in training. Eccles, Woolfenden and Amenda are out, and Awoniyi is suspended. Thomas-Asante is set to play as lone striker. Newcastle (Jaissle): Burn and Ramsey are back in training, and González has cleared concussion protocol. Jaouen is out for about two months. Elanga and Osula are unlikely to play. Dedic is set to start at right-back.
(c) Market. No-margin prices: 30/27/43, over 2.5 at 57%, both sides scoring at 60%. Our model gives Coventry 1.2 and Newcastle 1.6 expected goals, with the usual upward goals correction. That lands within about 2 points of every priced market, so there is no priced pick. Corners sit near 9 before the downward correction, so we have no corners view. Cards come out at about 4.1 expected, so over 3.5 is about 57%: a coin-flip-plus, below our bar. The one clear lean is Newcastle to score. Coventry concede in about 80% of games, and their league chances against average 1.64 per game. Newcastle have scored in 9 of their last 10.
(d) Uncertainties. Coventry's sample mixes Championship and Premier League games. Newcastle's fitness and how much rotation Jaissle uses are unclear, and the Kesler-Hayden reports conflict.
Analysed by opus with web research.