Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction
Our pick
Brentford team goals
Brentford over 0.5 goals
Brentford score in nearly every game, and Villa's weakened defence has leaked chances all season.
Why this pick
Brentford score in nearly every game, and Villa's weakened defence has leaked chances all season.
Brentford scored in 9 of their last 10 (70% both sides scoring away) and their league chances created run at about 2 per game. Villa have conceded 9 in 5 league games with 8.4 xG against. Onana and Goretzka are out, and Cash and Alysson are doubts. Market goal lines imply Brentford at about 1.35-1.45 goals, which works out to roughly 74% to score.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Brentford to score: they almost always do, and Villa's defence and midfield are depleted.
- 1Brentford scored in nine of their last ten games, all competitions.
- 2Villa miss Onana, Goretzka and Maatsen; Cash and Alysson are doubtful.
- 3Result market looks fair; we stay close to the bookmaker's prices.
Go deeper
What happened2–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–2
Goals
4 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
4 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
8 (we expected 3.8)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 34% | 36% | -2 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Brentford win | 39% | 38% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 35% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 27% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.45
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
3.8
Late team news (5)Villa: Onana out (knee); Madjo and Alysson major doubts; no suspensions.
Villa: Onana out (knee); Madjo and Alysson major doubts; no suspensions.
2026-10-10reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Matty Cash limped off on Poland duty, fitness to be assessed; up to eight Villa players out or doubtful.
2026-10reliability: medium3addedminutes.com
Damsgaard expected to miss the match with an ankle injury from Denmark duty; Furo also injured.
2026-10-08reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Jensen, Dasilva, Milambo, Collins and van den Berg progressing and could return to the squad; Ouattara's fitness unclear after illness.
2026-10-08reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Predicted Brentford XI largely unchanged from the 3-0 Chelsea win, with Thiago leading the attack.
2026-10-08reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongVilla's home record holds: they kept clean sheets in four of their last ten at Villa Park.
Villa's home record holds: they kept clean sheets in four of their last ten at Villa Park.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups
- Cash scan result
- Ouattara fitness
- Villa predicted XI
The dataAston VillaWLDLLBrentfordWDDDW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 16/20 | 4/20 |
| Points (played) | 4 (5) | 9 (5) |
| Form | WLDLL | WDDDW |
| Points per game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals for – against | 2.3 – 1.4 | 1.5 – 1.3 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.59 – 1.39 | 1.33 – 1.89 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 4.5 – 4.8 | 4.3 – 6.7 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.1 | 1.6 – 2.1 |
| Days since last match | 21 | 22 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
17 meetings: 4 home wins, 7 draws, 6 away wins · 2.5 goals per game.
- 2026-02-01 · Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford
- 2025-09-16 · Brentford 1–1 Aston Villa
- 2025-08-23 · Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa
- 2025-03-08 · Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa
- 2024-12-04 · Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford
Referee
Craig Pawson (England)
This season: 3.19 yellows and 23.1 fouls per game over 32 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Aston Villa
A. Onana (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
B. Madjo (injured: Knock Injury)
I. Maatsen (injured: Ankle Injury)
L. Goretzka (injured: Knee Injury)
M. K. Cissé (injured: Knock Injury)
P. Torres (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Brentford
A. Milambo (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
J. Dasilva (injured: Knock Injury)
M. Jensen (injured: Strain Injury)
N. Collins (injured: Calf Injury)
S. van den Berg (injured: Groin Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Aston Villa
2.67
Draw
3.51
Brentford
2.53
Over 2.5 goals
1.70
Under 2.5 goals
2.17
Both score: yes
1.55
Both score: no
2.33
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.5%.
Last 10 games — Aston Villa
| 09-19 | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–2 | W |
| 09-16 | A | Coventry City | 3–1 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Nottingham Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 09-08 | A | Club Brugge KV | 3–2 | W |
| 09-05 | A | Hull City | 0–0 | D |
| 08-31 | H | Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 08-23 | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–4 | L |
| 08-12 | A | Paris Saint-Germain | 1–2 | L |
| 05-24 | A | Manchester City | 2–1 | W |
| 05-20 | A | SC Freiburg | 3–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Brentford
| 09-18 | H | Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
| 09-15 | A | Reading | 2–1 | W |
| 09-12 | A | Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Sunderland | 1–1 | D |
| 08-30 | A | Leeds United | 1–1 | D |
| 08-25 | A | Birmingham City | 6–1 | W |
| 08-22 | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Liverpool FC | 1–1 | D |
| 05-17 | H | Crystal Palace | 2–2 | D |
| 05-09 | A | Manchester City | 0–3 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 3 min read
Close to a coin flip with a slight lean to in-form Brentford; the best angle is Brentford scoring against an injury-hit Villa defence.
Data (pack)
- Villa are 16th with 4 points from 5 games, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their chances-created numbers are just as poor (4.4 for, 8.4 against). Their last two home league games were losses to Forest (xG 0.9-1.9) and Arsenal (0.3-1.1). Over their last 10 at home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 70% over 2.5. Much of that came from the spring.
- Brentford are 4th and unbeaten in the league (GF 10, GA 4). They failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 games. Away from home: 2-6-2 record, 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, 70% both sides scoring, 60% over 2.5. Their away xG against is high (1.89).
- Head-to-head is even (4-3-3 over the last 10). Brentford won 1-0 at Villa Park in February.
- Referee Pawson: 3.19 yellows per game this season, 3.5 over his last 10, 0.3 penalties scored per game. Neither side books many cards (combined about 3.5–4). Expected cards about 3.8, so no cards edge.
- Corners: Villa's home games average 9.3 in total and Brentford's away games 11.0. After the corner correction from past results, expect about 9.0. That is no edge.
News (web)
- Villa: Onana is out. Madjo and Alysson are major doubts. Cash limped off on Poland duty, and up to eight players are out or doubtful.
- Brentford: Damsgaard is out with an ankle injury picked up on Denmark duty. Jensen, Collins, van den Berg and Dasilva are close to returning. Ouattara is doubtful after illness. The predicted XI is unchanged from the 3-0 win over Chelsea, with Thiago up front.
Market
The 1X2 split (35.5/27/37.5) looks fair. Villa's absences tilt it slightly towards Brentford: 34/27/39. Expected goals 1.4-1.45, about 2.85 in total, which includes the upward correction for scoring. That gives over 2.5 at about 59% and both sides scoring at about 62%. Both are within 3 points of the market, so there is no priced edge, and past results warn against thin priced edges.
Pick
Brentford to score at least once, about 74%. Brentford scored in 9 of their last 10. Villa average 1.32 chances-created against over their last 10 and have defensive and midfield absences. Bookmaker goal lines imply Brentford around 1.35 goals.
Uncertainties
Villa's home record (40% clean sheets, 7 of 9 scoring first) and their three weeks of rest before kickoff. Ouattara's fitness. Final lineups are unconfirmed.
Analysed by opus with web research.