Прогноз Liechtenstein — Lithuania
Liechtenstein
LithuaniaНаша ставка
Goals over/under 2.5
under 2.5 goals
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Почему эта ставка
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Liechtenstein scored 1 goal in 10 games (0.31 chances-created value per game), and only 3 of their last 10 home games had 3+ goals. Every home loss to comparable sides ended 0-2. Lithuania average 0.4 away goals and 4 of their last 10 away games went over 2.5. With about 2.0 expected total goals, a Poisson model gives about 64% for under 2.5 against 54.9% no-margin implied. Rain and a key midfield absence for Lithuania also point to a low total.
- Коэффициент
- 1.71
- Коэффициент означает
- 54.9%
- Факт
- 2
Наша вероятность выше той, что заложена в коэффициент букмекера, — эта разница и есть преимущество.
Коротко
Back under 2.5 goals: Liechtenstein almost never score and Lithuania's attack is weak.
- 1Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last ten games.
- 2Lithuania average 0.7 goals a game and lost midfielder Magdušauskas to injury.
- 3We give under 2.5 goals 64%; the price implies about 55%.
Подробнее
Что произошло0–2 · зашло 1 из 1
Итоговый счёт
0–2
Голы
2 (ожидали 2.0)
Угловые
8 (ожидали 8.2)
Карточки
2 (ожидали 4.4)
Мы и букмекерыНаибольшее расхождение: Тотал больше 2.5 — у нас 36%, у букмекеров 45%
| Мы | Букмекеры | Разница | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Победа Liechtenstein | 9% | 8% | +1 |
| Ничья | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Победа Lithuania | 69% | 73% | -4 |
| Тотал больше 1.5 | 61% | 69% | -8 |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 36% | 45% | -9 |
| Тотал больше 3.5 | 16% | 25% | -9 |
| Обе забьют | 31% | 34% | -3 |
| Пенальти в матче | 22% | – | – |
| Красная карточка в матче | 12% | – | – |
Цифры букмекеров — их коэффициенты без маржи. Разница в 4 пункта и больше выделена. Столбец поставщика данных — его собственный прогноз, для справки.
Ожидаемые голы
0.45 – 1.55
Ожидаемые угловые
8.2
Ожидаемые карточки
4.4
Самые вероятные счета
0-1 (18%) · 0-2 (15%) · 1-1 (10%)
Последние новости команд (5)Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June…
Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June; predicted XI named.
2026-09-22надёжность: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Liechtenstein lost June 2026 friendlies to Andorra and Cyprus; one win in four fixtures this year (friendlies not in the pack).
2026-09-22надёжность: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Lithuania: no fresh injuries per preview; Kucys and Gineitis available; lost Baltic Cup final 1-0 to Estonia.
2026-09-22надёжность: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas is out injured; coach Jankauskas regrets the loss and says Lithuania must prove their favourite status.
2026-09-23надёжность: highregionuzinios.lt
Lithuania's 26-man squad recalls Slivka, Dolžnikov, Steponavičius, Ruzgis, Kazukolovas, Gertmonas and Širvys; Lithuania host Azerbaijan on 27 September.
2026-09надёжность: highlrt.lt
Что может пойти не такLiechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Liechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Что не удалось проверить
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Liechtenstein injury news from a club/federation source
- Pitch condition after rain
ДанныеВот данные, которые аналитик получил по этому матчу.
Вот данные, которые аналитик получил по этому матчу.
| Liechtenstein | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| Очков за матч | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Голы забито – пропущено | 0.1 – 2.3 | 0.4 – 1.6 |
| Ожидаемые голы (xG) забито – пропущено | 0.43 – 2.16 | 0.86 – 1.45 |
| Сухие матчи | 10% | 20% |
| Забивали обе | 10% | 30% |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 30% | 40% |
| Угловые свои – соперника | 0.8 – 7.5 | 1.8 – 5.8 |
| Жёлтые свои – соперника | 2.7 – 1.7 | 2.6 – 2.1 |
| Дней с последнего матча | 310 | 311 |
Последние 10 матчей: хозяева дома, гости на выезде. Голы и xG — забито–пропущено за матч; угловые и жёлтые карточки так же.
Личные встречи
Встреч: 2; побед хозяев 0, ничьих 0, побед гостей 2 · 2.0 гола за матч.
- 2013-09-10 · Lithuania 2–0 Liechtenstein
- 2012-10-12 · Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
Судья
Ante Čulina (Croatia)
В этом сезоне: 4.50 жёлтых и 25.0 фолов за матч, матчей: 2.
Последние матчи (2): 4.50 жёлтых за матч.
Отсутствуют
Liechtenstein
Не сообщалось
Lithuania
Не сообщалось
Составы: predicted
Коэффициенты букмекеров
Liechtenstein
11.40
Ничья
4.86
Lithuania
1.29
Тотал больше 2.5
2.08
Тотал меньше 2.5
1.71
Обе забьют: да
2.73
Обе забьют: нет
1.41
Среднее по нескольким букмекерам. Их общая маржа — 6.9%.
Последние 10 матчей — Liechtenstein
| 11-18 | В | Belgium | 0–7 | L |
| 11-15 | Д | Wales | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | В | Kazakhstan | 0–4 | L |
| 09-07 | В | North Macedonia | 0–5 | L |
| 09-04 | Д | Belgium | 0–6 | L |
| 06-06 | В | Wales | 0–3 | L |
| 03-25 | Д | Kazakhstan | 0–2 | L |
| 03-22 | Д | North Macedonia | 0–3 | L |
| 11-18 | Д | San Marino | 1–3 | L |
| 10-13 | Д | Gibraltar | 0–0 | D |
Последние 10 матчей — Lithuania
| 11-17 | В | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 10-12 | Д | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 10-09 | В | Finland | 1–2 | L |
| 09-07 | Д | Netherlands | 2–3 | L |
| 09-04 | Д | Malta | 1–1 | D |
| 06-07 | В | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | Д | Finland | 2–2 | D |
| 03-21 | В | Poland | 0–1 | L |
| 11-18 | В | Kosovo | 0–1 | L |
| 11-15 | В | Cyprus | 1–2 | L |
Полный разборПолное обоснование аналитика · 2 мин чтения
Lithuania should beat Liechtenstein, but two sides that rarely score in a rainy, low-event opener point to under 2.5 goals.
Data (pack). Liechtenstein are 0-1-9 over their last 10 games with 0.1 goals scored per game, and they failed to score in 90% of them. Their chances created add up to 0.31 a game, from 2.4 shots. At home they concede 2.3 a game, but most of that came against Belgium. Against sides at Lithuania's level (Andorra, Latvia, Moldova, Kazakhstan) they lost 0-2 each time. Only 3 of their last 10 home games went over 2.5 goals. Lithuania are 0-3-7 with 0.7 goals a game, 0.4 away, and failed to score in 60% of away games. Four of their last ten away games went over 2.5. Their chances created are about 0.7-0.9 a game, though that was mostly against stronger opponents. The only previous meetings were two 2-0 Lithuania wins. Referee Čulina: 4.5 yellows a game on a tiny sample. Rain and wind are forecast.
News (web). Sports Mole (22 Sep) says both sides have no injuries and names probable line-ups. Liechtenstein have Büchel back in goal and captain Hasler back; the pack's 310-day rest ignores June friendlies (losses to Andorra and Cyprus). Lithuania are without midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas, who was injured before camp. Coach Jankauskas says the team must play like favourites. Lithuania face Azerbaijan three days later.
Market. The match-result prices (Lithuania 72.5%) look fair, so I stay close. I make it roughly 1-0.5 per cent adjustments: 9/22/69, giving a little more to the draw because Lithuania finish their chances poorly. On goals, a model with Liechtenstein expected to score about 0.45 and Lithuania about 1.55 gives roughly 2.0 total goals and about 35% for over 2.5. The market has 45%. The third-party model credits Liechtenstein with nearly one goal, which their record doesn't support. That gap is the edge on under 2.5. Both sides scoring (31% vs 34%) and corners (about 8 expected, close to the third-party line) don't clear the bars.
Uncertainties. Liechtenstein's defence has fallen apart in the second half before (0-7, 0-6 and 0-5 against better teams). Lithuania may play with extra ambition against the weakest side in the group. Both teams' September form is unknown.
Анализ: opus с поиском в интернете.