Прогноз Kosovo — Ireland
Kosovo
IrelandНаша ставка
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Почему эта ставка
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Referee Visser averages 4.93 yellows per game this season (4.3 over his last 10) plus 0.21 reds. Ireland games reached 4+ yellows in 8 of the last 10, Kosovo games in 6 of 10, and Ireland collect 3.2 yellows per game themselves. An evenly matched competitive opener with away fouling at 14.7 per game supports a total of around 4.6.
- Факт
- 2
Коэффициента для сравнения нет, поэтому это экспертная оценка, которая оценивается отдельно.
Коротко
Back over 3.5 cards: Ireland pick up plenty of bookings and the referee averages nearly five a game.
- 1Kosovo have lost just two of their last ten home games.
- 2Both squads are short of players, Ireland missing Collins, Coleman, Ferguson and Cullen.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair; the only angle is cards.
Подробнее
Что произошло1–0 · зашло 0 из 1
Итоговый счёт
1–0
Голы
1 (ожидали 2.4)
Угловые
1 (ожидали 8.8)
Карточки
2 (ожидали 4.6)
Мы и букмекерыМы расходимся с букмекерами не более чем на 4 пункта по всем исходам.
| Мы | Букмекеры | Разница | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Победа Kosovo | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Ничья | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Победа Ireland | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Тотал больше 1.5 | 66% | 67% | -1 |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| Тотал больше 3.5 | 20% | 21% | -1 |
| Обе забьют | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Пенальти в матче | 25% | – | – |
| Красная карточка в матче | 15% | – | – |
Цифры букмекеров — их коэффициенты без маржи. Разница в 4 пункта и больше выделена. Столбец поставщика данных — его собственный прогноз, для справки.
Ожидаемые голы
1.35 – 1.05
Ожидаемые угловые
8.8
Ожидаемые карточки
4.6
Самые вероятные счета
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (9%)
Последние новости команд (7)Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
2026-09-23надёжность: mediumlastwordonsports.com
Ireland also without Coleman, Evan Ferguson, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor, Mikey Johnston, Oisin McEntee; Dara O'Shea to captain; Parrott has 6 goals in last 6 caps.
2026-09надёжность: mediumsports.yahoo.com
Killian Phillips called up after Jamie McGrath and Harvey Vale withdrew injured.
2026-09-21надёжность: highrte.ie
RTÉ forecasts clear conditions, around 15°C, no rain in Pristina.
2026-09-22надёжность: mediumrte.ie
Muriqi named new Kosovo captain after Amir Rrahman retired from the national team; Vojvoda vice-captain.
2026-09надёжность: highkoha.net
Kosovo without Florent Muslija and Elvis Rexhbeçaj (injured); Korenica replaced injured Donat Rrudhani.
2026-09надёжность: mediumbalkanweb.com
Avdullahu and Fisnik Asllani expected to start for Kosovo.
2026-09надёжность: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Что может пойти не такA cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
A cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
Что не удалось проверить
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Exact status of the long Ireland injury list (from aggregator summaries)
- Weather: pack says rain, RTÉ says clear
ДанныеВот данные, которые аналитик получил по этому матчу.
Вот данные, которые аналитик получил по этому матчу.
| Kosovo | Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Очков за матч | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Голы забито – пропущено | 1.7 – 0.9 | 1.2 – 1.9 |
| Ожидаемые голы (xG) забито – пропущено | 0.89 – 1.06 | 1.17 – 1.91 |
| Сухие матчи | 40% | 0% |
| Забивали обе | 40% | 70% |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 50% | 70% |
| Угловые свои – соперника | 2.3 – 3.0 | 3.3 – 6.0 |
| Жёлтые свои – соперника | 2.4 – 2.3 | 2.6 – 2.2 |
| Дней с последнего матча | 177 | 182 |
Последние 10 матчей: хозяева дома, гости на выезде. Голы и xG — забито–пропущено за матч; угловые и жёлтые карточки так же.
Судья
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
В этом сезоне: 4.93 жёлтых и 24.1 фолов за матч, матчей: 43.
Последние матчи (10): 4.30 жёлтых за матч.
Отсутствуют
Kosovo
A. Saipi (injured: national_team)
D. Rrudhani (injured: Knock Injury)
K. Hajrizi (injured: Muscle Injury)
M. Rashica (injured: Thigh Injury)
Ireland
M. Melia (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. Collins (injured: Calf Injury)
Составы: predicted
Коэффициенты букмекеров
Kosovo
2.41
Ничья
3.08
Ireland
3.06
Тотал больше 2.5
2.27
Тотал меньше 2.5
1.61
Обе забьют: да
1.91
Обе забьют: нет
1.81
Среднее по нескольким букмекерам. Их общая маржа — 6.6%.
Последние 10 матчей — Kosovo
| 03-31 | Д | Türkiye | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | В | Slovakia | 4–3 | W |
| 11-18 | Д | Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | В | Slovenia | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | В | Sweden | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | Д | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | Д | Sweden | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | В | Switzerland | 0–4 | L |
| 03-23 | В | Iceland | 3–1 | W |
| 03-20 | Д | Iceland | 2–1 | W |
Последние 10 матчей — Ireland
| 03-26 | В | Czechia | 2–2 | D |
| 11-16 | В | Hungary | 3–2 | W |
| 11-13 | Д | Portugal | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | Д | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-11 | В | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | В | Armenia | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | Д | Hungary | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | Д | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 03-20 | В | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 11-17 | В | England | 0–5 | L |
Полный разборПолное обоснование аналитика · 2 мин чтения
Kosovo slight favourites in a tight, low-scoring opener; no edge on the result, but a card-happy Belgian referee and two booking-prone sides point to over 3.5 cards.
Data (pack). Kosovo at home: 6-2-2, 1.7 scored / 0.9 conceded, but underlying chances are thin (0.89 created vs 1.06 conceded per game), 40% possession, and they rarely win corners (2.25 per game at home, small sample). Ireland away: 3-2-5, 1.2 / 1.9, 70% both sides scoring, and they concede heavily after half-time (13 of 19 away goals conceded in the second half). No head-to-head. Both teams come in after six months without a game.
Cards: Kosovo games had 4+ yellows in 6 of their last 10; Ireland games in 8 of 10 (Ireland get 3.2 yellows per game themselves). Referee Visser: 4.93 yellows and 0.21 reds per game this season, 4.3 over his last 10. Expected total ≈4.6.
News (web). Ireland are badly depleted: Collins, Coleman, Ferguson, Cullen, Taylor, Johnston and McEntee are reported out, McGrath and Vale withdrew, Phillips called up late, O'Shea captains. Parrott is in form (6 in 6). Kosovo are missing Rrudhani, Muslija, Rexhbeçaj, plus Hajrizi/Rashica/Saipi from the pack; Rrahman has retired from international football; Muriqi is the new captain and scoring freely for Fenerbahçe. RTÉ expects clear weather, which contradicts the pack's rain forecast.
Market. 38.9/30.4/30.6. Both sides are weakened, and Ireland's losses in defence roughly cancel out Kosovo's missing midfielders. I nudge Kosovo up about 1 point for home form and Ireland's defensive absences, which is nowhere near the 4-point bar. Over 2.5 at 41.5% fits Kosovo's low-event home profile; I have it at 40%. No priced edge.
Pick. Over 3.5 cards is backed by both teams' booking rates and the referee's rate, which are independent signals. I put it at about 63%.
Uncertainties. Rust after a long break, the first League B game for Kosovo, and full lineups not yet confirmed. The referee's softer recent run (4.3) is the main danger to the cards pick.
Анализ: opus с поиском в интернете.