Прогноз AS Roma — Inter
Наши ставки
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
Почему эта ставка
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- Коэффициент
- 2.49
- Коэффициент означает
- 37.6%
- Факт
- BTTS yes
Наша вероятность выше той, что заложена в коэффициент букмекера, — эта разница и есть преимущество.
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)Зашла
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- Факт
- 6
Коэффициента для сравнения нет, поэтому это экспертная оценка, которая оценивается отдельно.
Коротко
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
Подробнее
Что произошло2–2 · зашло 1 из 2
Итоговый счёт
2–2
Голы
4 (ожидали 2.8)
Угловые
6 (ожидали 9.2)
Карточки
6 (ожидали 4.8)
Мы и букмекерыНаибольшее расхождение: Обе забьют — у нас 57%, у букмекеров 62%
| Мы | Букмекеры | Разница | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Победа AS Roma | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Ничья | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Победа Inter | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| Тотал больше 1.5 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Тотал больше 3.5 | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| Обе забьют | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| Пенальти в матче | 24% | – | – |
| Красная карточка в матче | 12% | – | – |
Цифры букмекеров — их коэффициенты без маржи. Разница в 4 пункта и больше выделена. Столбец поставщика данных — его собственный прогноз, для справки.
Ожидаемые голы
1.50 – 1.25
Ожидаемые угловые
9.2
Ожидаемые карточки
4.8
Самые вероятные счета
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Последние новости команд (6)Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18надёжность: highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18надёжность: higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18надёжность: highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19надёжность: mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19надёжность: mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18надёжность: mediumcalciomercato.com
Что может пойти не такConfirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
ДанныеAS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
Вот данные, которые аналитик получил по этому матчу.
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Место в таблице | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| Очки (матчи) | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Форма | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| Очков за матч | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Голы забито – пропущено | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Ожидаемые голы (xG) забито – пропущено | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| Сухие матчи | 60% | 40% |
| Забивали обе | 40% | 50% |
| Тотал больше 2.5 | 70% | 50% |
| Угловые свои – соперника | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| Жёлтые свои – соперника | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| Дней с последнего матча | 5 | 5 |
Последние 10 матчей: хозяева дома, гости на выезде. Голы и xG — забито–пропущено за матч; угловые и жёлтые карточки так же.
Личные встречи
Встреч: 131; побед хозяев 37, ничьих 42, побед гостей 52 · 3.0 гола за матч.
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
Судья
Davide Massa (Italy)
В этом сезоне: 3.92 жёлтых и 25.7 фолов за матч, матчей: 39.
Последние матчи (10): 4.50 жёлтых за матч.
Отсутствуют
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
Составы: predicted
Коэффициенты букмекеров
AS Roma
2.61
Ничья
3.45
Inter
2.57
Тотал больше 2.5
1.60
Тотал меньше 2.5
2.35
Обе забьют: да
1.50
Обе забьют: нет
2.49
Среднее по нескольким букмекерам. Их общая маржа — 6.2%.
Последние 10 матчей — AS Roma
| 09-14 | В | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | В | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | Д | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | В | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | Д | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | В | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | Д | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | В | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | Д | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | В | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
Последние 10 матчей — Inter
| 09-14 | Д | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | В | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | Д | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | В | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | Д | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | В | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | Д | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | В | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | В | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | Д | Parma | 2–0 | W |
Полный разборПолное обоснование аналитика · 2 мин чтения
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
Анализ: opus с поиском в интернете.