Pronostico Thame United - Exmouth Town
Le nostre giocate
Total goals
over 1.5 goals
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
Perché questa giocata
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
Every one of Thame United's three recorded games produced at least four goals, and they have conceded in all of them. Exmouth Town scored three at Thame on Saturday and have found the net in two of three, all after half-time. Two leaky defences and a tie that already produced six goals; only a genuinely cagey replay gets under this line.
- Reale
- 4
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
64%Both teams to scoreyesVinta
Thame have scored and conceded in every game in the window (100% both-score rate) and Exmouth shipped three at Thame on Saturday. Exmouth's home quality should get them a goal against a step-four defence, while Thame have shown they can hurt them. Below my usual 58% comfort only on sample size, but the rate signals line up.
- Reale
- BTTS yes
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
62%Total goalsover 2.5 goalsVinta
Two independent signals: Thame have scored exactly three in each of their last two games and conceded 2.67 per game, with five of six goals against arriving after half-time; Exmouth are a division higher and score heavily in the second half, all five of their recorded goals coming from the 46th minute on. Expected total around 3.2.
- Reale
- 4
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
In breve
Goals again in the replay: six last week, both defences soft. Back over 2.5.
- 1First tie finished 3-3; Thame have scored three in two straight games
- 2Replay is actually at Exmouth, who play a division higher
- 3Thame have conceded in every game, Exmouth in two of three
Approfondisci
Com'è andata3–1 · 3 giocate vinte su 3
Risultato finale
3–1
Gol
4 (ci aspettavamo 3.2)
Calci d'angolo
– (ci aspettavamo 10.5)
Cartellini
0 (ci aspettavamo 3.5)
Noi vs i bookmakerTutte le nostre probabilità per questa partita.
| Nostra | Bookmaker | Differenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Thame United | 23% | – | – |
| Pareggio | 24% | – | – |
| Vince Exmouth Town | 53% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 gol | 84% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 gol | 62% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 gol | 40% | – | – |
| Segnano entrambe | 64% | – | – |
| Rigore nella partita | 26% | – | – |
| Cartellino rosso nella partita | 10% | – | – |
Le cifre dei bookmaker sono le loro quote senza margine. Una differenza di 4 punti o più è evidenziata. La colonna del fornitore dati è il suo pronostico, mostrato come riferimento.
Gol attesi
1.35 – 1.85
Calci d'angolo attesi
10.5
Cartellini attesi
3.5
Risultati più probabili
2-1 Exmouth (12%) · 1-1 (11%) · 2-0 Exmouth (9%)
Ultime notizie sulle squadre (6)The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is…
The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is reversed.
2026-09-19affidabilità: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Exmouth Town are unbeaten in the league with three wins after an opening draw at Bideford; they face Dorchester away on Saturday and Weymouth next Wednesday.
2026-09-19affidabilità: highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth Town won 2-1 at Barnstaple Town the previous Tuesday — a third competitive game in nine days going into the replay.
2026-09-19affidabilità: highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth's XI on Saturday: Wonnacott, Belsten, Cann, Edwards, Morison, Landricombe, Knowles, Denny, Slater, Steer, Bath; no injuries or suspensions reported.
2026-09-19affidabilità: mediumexmouth-townfc.co.uk
A penalty was awarded and converted by Tom Bath in the first tie, and Ross Edwards equalised in the 94th minute from an Owen Johnson corner.
2026-09-19affidabilità: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Thame United's scorers in the first tie were Jack Tutton, Harry Alexander and Greg Hackett.
2026-09-19affidabilità: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Cosa potrebbe andare stortoA cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
A cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
Cosa non ha potuto verificare
- Referee appointment
- Thame United injury/suspension list and expected XI
- Whether Exmouth rotate ahead of Saturday's league trip to Dorchester
- Any corner, card, shot or possession data for either club
- Weather and pitch conditions
I datiQuesti sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
Questi sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
| Thame United | Exmouth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Punti a partita | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Gol fatti – subiti | 2.3 – 2.7 | 1.5 – 1.5 |
| Gol attesi (xG) fatti – subiti | – – – | – – – |
| Porta inviolata | 0% | 50% |
| Hanno segnato entrambe | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 gol | 100% | 50% |
| Calci d'angolo a favore – contro | – – – | – – – |
| Gialli a favore – contro | 0.0 – 0.0 | 0.0 – 0.0 |
| Giorni dall'ultima partita | 4 | 4 |
Ultime 10 partite: la squadra di casa in casa, quella ospite in trasferta. Gol e xG sono fatti–subiti a partita; calci d'angolo e gialli allo stesso modo.
Precedenti
1 incontri: 0 vittorie in casa, 1 pareggi, 0 vittorie in trasferta · 6.0 gol a partita.
- 2026-09-19 · Thame United 3–3 Exmouth Town
Assenze
Thame United
Nessuna segnalata
Exmouth Town
Nessuna segnalata
Formazioni: predicted
Quote dei bookmaker
Media di diversi bookmaker. Il loro margine complessivo è del –%.
Ultime 10 partite — Thame United
| 09-19 | C | Exmouth Town | 3–3 | D |
| 09-05 | C | Reading City | 3–2 | W |
| 10-01 | C | Oxford City | 1–3 | L |
Ultime 10 partite — Exmouth Town
| 09-19 | T | Thame United | 3–3 | D |
| 09-09 | C | Banbury United | 2–1 | W |
| 09-05 | T | Banbury United | 0–0 | D |
L'analisi completaIl ragionamento completo dell'analista · 2 min di lettura
Exmouth Town host this replay a division above Thame and should edge it, but with both defences leaking the goals markets are the cleaner play — back over 2.5.
## Data
Tiny samples: three games each, no shots, corners, cards or possession. Thame United have scored three in each of their last two (3-3, 3-2) but conceded 2.67 per game; every game in the window went over 3.5 and every one saw both score. Their goals against cluster late: 5 of 6 after half-time, three in the 61-90 window. Exmouth Town are steadier (1-2-0, 1.67 for, 1.33 against) and score almost exclusively after the break — all five recorded goals came from the 46th minute on, none in the first half. The one meeting, four days ago, was 3-3 with Exmouth equalising at 90+4. No cards or penalties are recorded in the feed for either side, and the referee is not announced.
## News
The pack has the venue the wrong way round: the replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local Stadium, 19:45 local, not at Thame. Exmouth are a division above (Southern League Premier South — their fixture list has Dorchester and Weymouth), unbeaten in the league with three wins and an opening draw at Bideford. Their reported XI from Saturday was full strength, with Wonnacott in goal and Bath, Steer and Edwards scoring; no injuries or suspensions reported. Exmouth do face a third game in nine days and Dorchester away on Saturday, so some rotation is possible. Thame's goals came from Tutton, Alexander and Hackett.
## Market
No prices in the pack. On level and venue I make Exmouth around 53%, draw 24%, Thame 23% — a modest favourite, not a strong one, since Thame already matched them for 90 minutes. That gap is too small to back at an unknown price. The goals case is firmer: 3.2 total expected, over 2.5 near 62%, over 1.5 near 84%, both scoring around 64%.
## Uncertainties
No corner, card or shot data at all, referee unknown, and a replay can be tighter than the original. Rotation by Exmouth with a league trip on Saturday is the main unmodelled risk.
Analizzato da opus con ricerca web.