Pronostico Sevilla - FC Barcelona
Le nostre giocate
Team total goals - Sevilla
Sevilla under 1.5 goals
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g).
Perché questa giocata
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g). Sevilla also lose Vargas and Stassin from an already low-volume attack.
- Reale
- 1
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
70%Total cards (yellows + reds, both teams)over 3.5 total cardsPersa
Two independent signals: Sevilla's home games averaged 5.2 total yellows (3.0 for, 2.2 against) with 14.6 fouls/g, and referee Martínez Munuera runs 4.29 yellows and 27 fouls per game this season. Sevilla chasing a dominant Barça raises foul volume further; Barça's own low 1.7/g away is the only offset.
- Reale
- 1
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
In breve
Barcelona are rightly heavy favourites at 1.22 and nothing in the priced markets offers value, so the play is on the unpriced side: Sevilla kept quiet (under 1.5 team goals) and a card-heavy game under Martínez Munuera.
Approfondisci
Com'è andata1–3 · 1 giocate vinte su 2
Risultato finale
1–3
Gol
4 (ci aspettavamo 3.3)
Calci d'angolo
4 (ci aspettavamo 8.8)
Cartellini
1 (ci aspettavamo 4.6)
Noi vs i bookmakerSiamo entro 4 punti dai bookmaker su tutto.
| Nostra | Bookmaker | Differenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Sevilla | 9% | 9% | 0 |
| Pareggio | 13% | 14% | -1 |
| Vince FC Barcelona | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 gol | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 gol | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 gol | 53% | 54% | -1 |
| Segnano entrambe | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Rigore nella partita | 24% | – | – |
| Cartellino rosso nella partita | 12% | – | – |
Le cifre dei bookmaker sono le loro quote senza margine. Una differenza di 4 punti o più è evidenziata. La colonna del fornitore dati è il suo pronostico, mostrato come riferimento.
Gol attesi
1.00 – 2.25
Calci d'angolo attesi
8.8
Cartellini attesi
4.6
Risultati più probabili
1-2 (10%) · 0-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)
Ultime notizie sulle squadre (7)Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
2026-09-17affidabilità: highiusport.com
Barcelona without Frenkie de Jong (knee/meniscus) and Roony Bardghji (torn ACL, long-term).
2026-09-18affidabilità: highsportsmole.co.uk
Joan García out/rested after being substituted at half-time vs Racing with a knee issue; Szczesny expected to start in goal.
2026-09-18affidabilità: mediumeurosport.es
Flick expected to make up to five changes; predicted XI Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsí, Martín, Espart; Fermín, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Raphinha, Adeyemi/Gordon.
2026-09-18affidabilità: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla miss Rubén Vargas (knee) and Arouna Sangante (ankle); Lucas Stassin ruled out/doubtful with a muscle-adductor problem.
2026-09-18affidabilità: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla coach's pre-match presser: Kike Salas a doubt with a contusion; Marcão still two to three weeks short of match fitness; Cardoso not in plans.
2026-09-18affidabilità: lowes.soccerway.com
Barcelona arrive on seven straight competitive wins; Yamal has 7 goals in his last 4 La Liga games and Raphinha 11 in 7.
2026-09-18affidabilità: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Cosa potrebbe andare stortoConfirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Confirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Whether Kike Salas passes fit
- Identity of Sevilla's current head coach is reported inconsistently across sources
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
- Extent of Flick's rotation before the international break
I datiSevillaWWDLWFC BarcelonaWWWWW
Questi sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
| Sevilla | FC Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Posizione in classifica | 5/20 | 1/20 |
| Punti (giocate) | 13 (6) | 18 (6) |
| Forma | WWDLW | WWWWW |
| Punti a partita | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Gol fatti – subiti | 1.1 – 1.1 | 2.4 – 1.0 |
| Gol attesi (xG) fatti – subiti | 1.15 – 0.90 | 2.23 – 1.15 |
| Porta inviolata | 20% | 30% |
| Hanno segnato entrambe | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 gol | 40% | 70% |
| Calci d'angolo a favore – contro | 3.5 – 3.5 | 4.9 – 4.1 |
| Gialli a favore – contro | 3.0 – 2.2 | 1.7 – 1.9 |
| Giorni dall'ultima partita | 3 | 3 |
Ultime 10 partite: la squadra di casa in casa, quella ospite in trasferta. Gol e xG sono fatti–subiti a partita; calci d'angolo e gialli allo stesso modo.
Precedenti
111 incontri: 21 vittorie in casa, 25 pareggi, 65 vittorie in trasferta · 3.0 gol a partita.
- 2026-03-15 · FC Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla
- 2025-10-05 · Sevilla 4–1 FC Barcelona
- 2025-02-09 · Sevilla 1–4 FC Barcelona
- 2024-10-20 · FC Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla
- 2024-05-26 · Sevilla 1–2 FC Barcelona
Arbitro
Juan Martinez Munuera (Spain)
Questa stagione: 4.29 gialli e 27.0 falli a partita in 38 partite.
Ultime 10 partite: 3.60 gialli a partita.
Assenze
Sevilla
A. Sangante (injured: Sprained Ankle)
L. Stassin (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
FC Barcelona
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
R. Bardghji (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Formazioni: predicted
Quote dei bookmaker
Sevilla
10.78
Pareggio
7.00
FC Barcelona
1.22
Over 2.5 gol
1.29
Under 2.5 gol
3.43
Segnano entrambe: sì
1.65
Segnano entrambe: no
2.15
Media di diversi bookmaker. Il loro margine complessivo è del 5.5%.
Ultime 10 partite — Sevilla
| 09-16 | T | Deportivo de A Coruña | 1–0 | W |
| 09-11 | C | Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 09-06 | T | Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | C | Atlético Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 08-22 | T | Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 08-15 | C | Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 05-23 | T | Celta Vigo | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | C | Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 05-13 | T | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 05-09 | C | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
Ultime 10 partite — FC Barcelona
| 09-16 | C | Real Racing Club | 7–2 | W |
| 09-13 | T | Levante UD | 4–2 | W |
| 09-09 | C | Feyenoord | 5–1 | W |
| 09-06 | T | Valencia | 5–0 | W |
| 08-31 | C | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | W |
| 08-27 | C | Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
| 08-23 | T | Elche | 5–0 | W |
| 05-23 | T | Valencia | 1–3 | L |
| 05-17 | C | Real Betis | 3–1 | W |
| 05-13 | T | Deportivo Alavés | 0–1 | L |
L'analisi completaIl ragionamento completo dell'analista · 2 min di lettura
(a) Data. Barcelona are 5/5 in La Liga, GD +22, xGF 24.2 vs Sevilla's 6.2, and have won 8 of 10 (2.4 pts/g), scoring 3.7/g overall but a more sober 2.4/g away with xG 2.23. Sevilla are 5th on 13 pts, form WWDLW, but the wins are narrow: at home 1.1 GF and 1.1 GA per game, xG 1.15-0.9, and they have scored ≤1 in 8 of 10 home games. They score late (11 of 14 home goals after 45') and concede early (8 of 11 in the first half) — a bad combination against a side that scored first in 7 of 10 away games. Set pieces: Sevilla home corners only 3.5 for / 3.5 against; Barça away 4.9/4.1 — total lands near 8.5-9, matching Bzzoiro (over 8.5 59.5%). Cards: Sevilla 3.0 yellows/g at home, opponents 2.2 (home totals averaged 5.2); Barça a very low 1.7 away; Munuera runs 4.29 Y/g this season (3.6 last 10) with 27 fouls/g. Penalties: Sevilla have conceded none in 10; Munuera's last 10 produced one scored penalty. H2H is lopsided (8 Barça wins in 10, 3.6 goals/g), though Sevilla won 4-1 at home in Oct 2025.
(b) News. Confirmed: Munuera referees (iusport/101TV). Barça miss De Jong and Bardghji; Joan García is out/rested after his knee issue at half-time vs Racing, Szczesny expected — a mild negative for Barça's defence. Flick is reported to be rotating up to five players, but the attack (Yamal, Raphinha) stays. Sevilla lose Vargas and Stassin, with Kike Salas doubtful — their thin attack gets thinner.
(c) vs market. My numbers (1.0 – 2.25 xG) reproduce the market: away 78%, over 2.5 73%, over 3.5 53%, BTTS 58% — all within 2 pts of the no-margin prices, so no priced edge. Deviation is unwarranted.
(d) Uncertainty. Barça rotation depth, 31°C heat slowing the game, and Sevilla's ability to sit deep (they did hold Barça to 1 goal once). Sevilla's goal timing sample is only 10 games.
Analizzato da opus con ricerca web.