Pronostico Kosovo - Ireland
Kosovo
IrelandLa nostra giocata
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Perché questa giocata
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Referee Visser averages 4.93 yellows per game this season (4.3 over his last 10) plus 0.21 reds. Ireland games reached 4+ yellows in 8 of the last 10, Kosovo games in 6 of 10, and Ireland collect 3.2 yellows per game themselves. An evenly matched competitive opener with away fouling at 14.7 per game supports a total of around 4.6.
- Reale
- 2
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
In breve
Back over 3.5 cards: Ireland pick up plenty of bookings and the referee averages nearly five a game.
- 1Kosovo have lost just two of their last ten home games.
- 2Both squads are short of players, Ireland missing Collins, Coleman, Ferguson and Cullen.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair; the only angle is cards.
Approfondisci
Com'è andata1–0 · 0 giocate vinte su 1
Risultato finale
1–0
Gol
1 (ci aspettavamo 2.4)
Calci d'angolo
1 (ci aspettavamo 8.8)
Cartellini
2 (ci aspettavamo 4.6)
Noi vs i bookmakerSiamo entro 4 punti dai bookmaker su tutto.
| Nostra | Bookmaker | Differenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Kosovo | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Pareggio | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Vince Ireland | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 gol | 66% | 67% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 gol | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| Over 3.5 gol | 20% | 21% | -1 |
| Segnano entrambe | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Rigore nella partita | 25% | – | – |
| Cartellino rosso nella partita | 15% | – | – |
Le cifre dei bookmaker sono le loro quote senza margine. Una differenza di 4 punti o più è evidenziata. La colonna del fornitore dati è il suo pronostico, mostrato come riferimento.
Gol attesi
1.35 – 1.05
Calci d'angolo attesi
8.8
Cartellini attesi
4.6
Risultati più probabili
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (9%)
Ultime notizie sulle squadre (7)Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
2026-09-23affidabilità: mediumlastwordonsports.com
Ireland also without Coleman, Evan Ferguson, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor, Mikey Johnston, Oisin McEntee; Dara O'Shea to captain; Parrott has 6 goals in last 6 caps.
2026-09affidabilità: mediumsports.yahoo.com
Killian Phillips called up after Jamie McGrath and Harvey Vale withdrew injured.
2026-09-21affidabilità: highrte.ie
RTÉ forecasts clear conditions, around 15°C, no rain in Pristina.
2026-09-22affidabilità: mediumrte.ie
Muriqi named new Kosovo captain after Amir Rrahman retired from the national team; Vojvoda vice-captain.
2026-09affidabilità: highkoha.net
Kosovo without Florent Muslija and Elvis Rexhbeçaj (injured); Korenica replaced injured Donat Rrudhani.
2026-09affidabilità: mediumbalkanweb.com
Avdullahu and Fisnik Asllani expected to start for Kosovo.
2026-09affidabilità: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Cosa potrebbe andare stortoA cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
A cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
Cosa non ha potuto verificare
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Exact status of the long Ireland injury list (from aggregator summaries)
- Weather: pack says rain, RTÉ says clear
I datiQuesti sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
Questi sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
| Kosovo | Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Punti a partita | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Gol fatti – subiti | 1.7 – 0.9 | 1.2 – 1.9 |
| Gol attesi (xG) fatti – subiti | 0.89 – 1.06 | 1.17 – 1.91 |
| Porta inviolata | 40% | 0% |
| Hanno segnato entrambe | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 gol | 50% | 70% |
| Calci d'angolo a favore – contro | 2.3 – 3.0 | 3.3 – 6.0 |
| Gialli a favore – contro | 2.4 – 2.3 | 2.6 – 2.2 |
| Giorni dall'ultima partita | 177 | 182 |
Ultime 10 partite: la squadra di casa in casa, quella ospite in trasferta. Gol e xG sono fatti–subiti a partita; calci d'angolo e gialli allo stesso modo.
Arbitro
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
Questa stagione: 4.93 gialli e 24.1 falli a partita in 43 partite.
Ultime 10 partite: 4.30 gialli a partita.
Assenze
Kosovo
A. Saipi (injured: national_team)
D. Rrudhani (injured: Knock Injury)
K. Hajrizi (injured: Muscle Injury)
M. Rashica (injured: Thigh Injury)
Ireland
M. Melia (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. Collins (injured: Calf Injury)
Formazioni: predicted
Quote dei bookmaker
Kosovo
2.41
Pareggio
3.08
Ireland
3.06
Over 2.5 gol
2.27
Under 2.5 gol
1.61
Segnano entrambe: sì
1.91
Segnano entrambe: no
1.81
Media di diversi bookmaker. Il loro margine complessivo è del 6.6%.
Ultime 10 partite — Kosovo
| 03-31 | C | Türkiye | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | T | Slovakia | 4–3 | W |
| 11-18 | C | Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | T | Slovenia | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | T | Sweden | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | C | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | C | Sweden | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | T | Switzerland | 0–4 | L |
| 03-23 | T | Iceland | 3–1 | W |
| 03-20 | C | Iceland | 2–1 | W |
Ultime 10 partite — Ireland
| 03-26 | T | Czechia | 2–2 | D |
| 11-16 | T | Hungary | 3–2 | W |
| 11-13 | C | Portugal | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | C | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-11 | T | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | T | Armenia | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | C | Hungary | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | C | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 03-20 | T | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 11-17 | T | England | 0–5 | L |
L'analisi completaIl ragionamento completo dell'analista · 2 min di lettura
Kosovo slight favourites in a tight, low-scoring opener; no edge on the result, but a card-happy Belgian referee and two booking-prone sides point to over 3.5 cards.
Data (pack). Kosovo at home: 6-2-2, 1.7 scored / 0.9 conceded, but underlying chances are thin (0.89 created vs 1.06 conceded per game), 40% possession, and they rarely win corners (2.25 per game at home, small sample). Ireland away: 3-2-5, 1.2 / 1.9, 70% both sides scoring, and they concede heavily after half-time (13 of 19 away goals conceded in the second half). No head-to-head. Both teams come in after six months without a game.
Cards: Kosovo games had 4+ yellows in 6 of their last 10; Ireland games in 8 of 10 (Ireland get 3.2 yellows per game themselves). Referee Visser: 4.93 yellows and 0.21 reds per game this season, 4.3 over his last 10. Expected total ≈4.6.
News (web). Ireland are badly depleted: Collins, Coleman, Ferguson, Cullen, Taylor, Johnston and McEntee are reported out, McGrath and Vale withdrew, Phillips called up late, O'Shea captains. Parrott is in form (6 in 6). Kosovo are missing Rrudhani, Muslija, Rexhbeçaj, plus Hajrizi/Rashica/Saipi from the pack; Rrahman has retired from international football; Muriqi is the new captain and scoring freely for Fenerbahçe. RTÉ expects clear weather, which contradicts the pack's rain forecast.
Market. 38.9/30.4/30.6. Both sides are weakened, and Ireland's losses in defence roughly cancel out Kosovo's missing midfielders. I nudge Kosovo up about 1 point for home form and Ireland's defensive absences, which is nowhere near the 4-point bar. Over 2.5 at 41.5% fits Kosovo's low-event home profile; I have it at 40%. No priced edge.
Pick. Over 3.5 cards is backed by both teams' booking rates and the referee's rate, which are independent signals. I put it at about 63%.
Uncertainties. Rust after a long break, the first League B game for Kosovo, and full lineups not yet confirmed. The referee's softer recent run (4.3) is the main danger to the cards pick.
Analizzato da opus con ricerca web.