Pronostico AS Roma - Inter
Le nostre giocate
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
Perché questa giocata
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- Quota
- 2.49
- La quota implica
- 37.6%
- Reale
- BTTS yes
La nostra probabilità è più alta di quella implicita nella quota del bookmaker: quella differenza è il vantaggio.
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)Vinta
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- Reale
- 6
Non c'è una quota con cui confrontarla, quindi è una valutazione personale, giudicata a sé.
In breve
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
Approfondisci
Com'è andata2–2 · 1 giocate vinte su 2
Risultato finale
2–2
Gol
4 (ci aspettavamo 2.8)
Calci d'angolo
6 (ci aspettavamo 9.2)
Cartellini
6 (ci aspettavamo 4.8)
Noi vs i bookmakerDifferenza maggiore: Segnano entrambe — noi 57%, bookmaker 62%
| Nostra | Bookmaker | Differenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince AS Roma | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Pareggio | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Vince Inter | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| Over 1.5 gol | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 gol | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 gol | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| Segnano entrambe | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| Rigore nella partita | 24% | – | – |
| Cartellino rosso nella partita | 12% | – | – |
Le cifre dei bookmaker sono le loro quote senza margine. Una differenza di 4 punti o più è evidenziata. La colonna del fornitore dati è il suo pronostico, mostrato come riferimento.
Gol attesi
1.50 – 1.25
Calci d'angolo attesi
9.2
Cartellini attesi
4.8
Risultati più probabili
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Ultime notizie sulle squadre (6)Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18affidabilità: highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18affidabilità: higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18affidabilità: highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19affidabilità: mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19affidabilità: mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18affidabilità: mediumcalciomercato.com
Cosa potrebbe andare stortoConfirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
I datiAS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
Questi sono i dati che l'analista ha ricevuto per questa partita.
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Posizione in classifica | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| Punti (giocate) | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Forma | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| Punti a partita | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Gol fatti – subiti | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Gol attesi (xG) fatti – subiti | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| Porta inviolata | 60% | 40% |
| Hanno segnato entrambe | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 gol | 70% | 50% |
| Calci d'angolo a favore – contro | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| Gialli a favore – contro | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| Giorni dall'ultima partita | 5 | 5 |
Ultime 10 partite: la squadra di casa in casa, quella ospite in trasferta. Gol e xG sono fatti–subiti a partita; calci d'angolo e gialli allo stesso modo.
Precedenti
131 incontri: 37 vittorie in casa, 42 pareggi, 52 vittorie in trasferta · 3.0 gol a partita.
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
Arbitro
Davide Massa (Italy)
Questa stagione: 3.92 gialli e 25.7 falli a partita in 39 partite.
Ultime 10 partite: 4.50 gialli a partita.
Assenze
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
Formazioni: predicted
Quote dei bookmaker
AS Roma
2.61
Pareggio
3.45
Inter
2.57
Over 2.5 gol
1.60
Under 2.5 gol
2.35
Segnano entrambe: sì
1.50
Segnano entrambe: no
2.49
Media di diversi bookmaker. Il loro margine complessivo è del 6.2%.
Ultime 10 partite — AS Roma
| 09-14 | T | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | T | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | C | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | T | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | C | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | T | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | C | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | T | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | C | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | T | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
Ultime 10 partite — Inter
| 09-14 | C | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | T | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | C | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | T | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | C | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | T | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | C | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | T | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | T | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | C | Parma | 2–0 | W |
L'analisi completaIl ragionamento completo dell'analista · 2 min di lettura
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
Analizzato da opus con ricerca web.